Friday, December 4, 2009

2010 Cubs Rookie Bullpen Candidates

The 2010 Cubs don't look to have too many set spots in their bullpen. Assuming guys like Sean Marshall, Tom Gorzelanny and Jeff Samardzija are considered starters first, you're left with Carlos Marmol, John Grabow and Angel Guzman as returning veterans (of sorts). Neal Cotts hopes to come back from Tommy John surgery, but don't hold your breath. I'm not counting David Patton, who lost his rookie status on service time, not innings.

With Ted Lilly's season starting late and Rich Harden's elsewhere, it's likely only one of Marshall/Gorzelanny/Samardzija trio will fall into the bullpen. That leaves two to four spots open for Gcompetition.

This creates opportunities, or renews them, for a variety of young pitchers. It also makes your eyes wander to the trade and free agent market. We'll stick to the first group today.

Gang of Eight

I've selected eight rookie pitchers that all have a shot at a bullpen spot. All but James Russell occupy a spot on the Cubs' 40-man roster, and each has some PITCHf/x coverage (either in MLB or AFL play). This is by no means an exhaustive list of candidates. Just a group that lends itself to digital scouting. It includes Jeff Gray, recently acquired from Oakland and still under the rookie limits for innings and service time (by my reckoning).

Introductions are in order, and include 2010 seasonal age, height/weight, total Major League innings pitched (or highest level pitched), number of pitches available in PITCHf/x and their projected 2010 ERA from CHONE. Age etc. taken from Cubs.com. Six are right-handed, Russell and Gaub are southpaws.












Pitcher2010 AgeH/WMLB IPPITCHf/xCHONE
Jeff Gray286'3"/19031.04774.64
Esmailin Caridad265'10"/19519.12855.47*
Jeff Stevens266'2"/20512.22344.13
Justin Berg266'3"/23012.01334.85
Mitch Atkins246'3"/2302.0215.96*
Blake Parker256'3"/225AAA674.62
James Russell246'4"/205AAA396.05*
John Gaub256'2"/200AAA264.50


CHONE projects Caridad, Russell and Atkins as starters, so knock a run off their projected ERA in your mind.

Speed and Strikes

Let's start with something simple - average fastball speed. Lumping two- and four-seam fastballs together, here's what you get -- fastest to slowest.
Average Fastball Speed (mph)
Gray     95
Caridad  93
Parker   93
Gaub     92
Berg     92
Stevens  92
Russell  91
Atkins   90

Keep in mind the small samples, especially for Atkins, Gaub and Russell. Parker is short, too, but not quite as egregiously as those three.

The ability to throw strikes will be big factor in any bullpen decision, especially with younger pitchers. Nothing Lou hates mores than rookies who walk guys. And Scott Eyre. And Chad Gaudin.

In Wide Zone (IWZ) measures the rate a pitcher hits a zone defined by the batters' individual vertical limits (average across all PITCHf/x operator defined values) and two-foot wide plate.

Remember, with all these numbers, I'm mixing levels of competition (AFL and MLB).

IWZ Rate, All Pitches
Atkins   .667
Caridad  .558
Berg     .534
Gray     .524
Russell  .513
Parker   .478
Stevens  .453
Gaub     .269

For Atkins, that's 14 IWZ out of 21 pitches in the majors. Gaub was 7 for 26 in the AFL.

PITCHf/x Profiles

These pitch classifications are my own, not Gameday's. They're subject to change, but here's what I've got for the eight prospects:








Parker#MPHPFX_XPFX_Z
Change-up987-108
2-seam fastball793-87
4-seam fastball3093-58
Cutter190-15
Slider208100



Parker's low IWZ was courtesy of his change-up, which he threw for exactly zero strikes in his AFL games covered by PITCHf/x. Otherwise, he was around .56. Parker's ground ball rate was just .23 in the same set of games. That seems flukey, as he just posted a .50 GB rate in AAA. And his overall AFL GB rate was .38.

Nothing stands-out about Parker, for me at least. Except his walk rate. From AA to AAA to AFL, he walked 41 batters in 75.1 innings. He did strike-out 88, but he's not on my list for 2010. He'll probably close games in Iowa, again.







Caridad#MPHPFX_XPFX_Z
Change-up685-95
2-seam fastball4592-76
4-seam fastball16994-59
Slider65788-2



Despite his small size, Caridad can throw as hard as anyone in this group, outside of Gray. His slider is a slow version of Marmol's in terms of spin deflection. It has a little bit of sink and a ton of sweep, making it very slurvey, and checks in at curveball speed rather than the slider speed of Marmol's. It's unremarkable whiff rate (.261) is no different than the rate on his fastball. That, by the way, says a lot more about the heater than the slider. It's very unusual to miss that many bats with a fastball, Caridad's whiff rate is about double the MLB average for fastballs.

I expect Caridad to be back in the thick of things in the mid/late innings come April. His name has been on the radar for at least a couple years, and he seems ready to step up.







Russell#MPHPFX_XPFX_Z
Change-up68147
Curveball277-5-2
4-seam fastball2291610
Slider983-13



Russell was one of the most effective pitchers in the AFL. It's a hitter's league, but the lefty dominated in relief, posting a 1.26 ERA with 14 K and 2 BB in 14.1 innings. In the PITCHf/x covered games, his GB/LD/FB/PU rates were bizarre (small sample, thank you) at .29/0/.42/.29. Overall in the AFL he went .44/.23/.23/.10. That's close to his AAA line, but with a few more grounders.

Being effective in the AFL is impressive, but it's not the end of the story. Still, given the lack of left-handed options in the system, Russell should be in the running for a job come March.








Gray#MPHPFX_XPFX_Z
Change-up691-96
Curveball45794-6
2-seam fastball25095-96
4-seam fastball9595-69
Slider8187-12



Gray was the key piece of the Jake Fox/Aaron Miles trade. He looks good, with one glaring issue. On the plus side, he gets a ton of ground balls with everything but his 4-seam fastball, which is intended to miss bats (.225 whiff) and get pop-ups (.10). His slider has a gaudy whiff rate of .417 and I have to admit I have a innate appreciation for 95 mph 2-seam fastballs. Problem: the curveball can't find the zone (.2 IWZ), but he uses it when ahead on lefties. Tends to give up pitcher's counts by throwing it for a ball. I'll have more on Gray in a separate piece, too much to go into here.

Gray did well in the American League and the NL Central shouldn't pose as many challenges. His chances for a job in April are as good, if not better, than anyone's in this group.








Stevens#MPHPFX_XPFX_Z
Curveball45733-10
2-seam fastball291-89
4-seam fastball16792-39
Cutter188424
Slider27941



Stevens came up for about a month in the summer, and was sent back down when everyone realized he needed something besides a fastball and a curveball. He came back when rosters expanded with what morphed into a cutter (I think). He didn't throw any curves in his last three outings. His low GB rate (.31) isn't too surprising, considering his best/favorite pitch is the 4-seamer, but could come up as he works on his stuff.

Stevens has been pitching in Mexico the past couple weeks so maybe we'll get some news on what he's been working on. Obviously a guy the Cubs will give a shot, but a work in progress who will probably spend more time on the farm than with the big club once again.





Gaub#MPHPFX_XPFX_Z
4-seam fastball1692710
Cutter1087-15



Gaub struggled in the AFL. In the PITCHf/x games his whiff rate (.63) stands in contrast to his minuscule IWZ rate. Both extreme, but not a bad hint at his overall numbers. In AAA, Gaub walked more than 4 per 9 innings, while striking out more than 11. In 9.2 AFL innings, he walked 6 and struck out 15.

With his history of control issues, I find it hard to picture this guy getting the call from Lou. Still, he's left-handed. He's got that going for him.







Berg#MPHPFX_XPFX_Z
2-seam fastball9392-94
4-seam fastball1492-76
Splitter486-23
Slider228404



Throwing mostly sinking fastballs, Berg made a good impression in his 2009 call-up. His 0.75 ERA looks nice, but over just 12 innings it means next to nothing. Seven K and 1 BB are more important, and a .55 GB rate (.61 in AAA) says his sinker is working. He did have trouble throwing his slider for strikes, and barely used his "splitter", if that's what those were.

Berg got the job done, in limited time, in 2009. His track record of racking up ground balls may push him into the front of the pack, even if his secondary stuff is still rough.







Atkins#MPHPFX_XPFX_Z
Curveball3758-5
4-seam fastball690-59
Cutter191-27
Slider118534



The softest tosser of the group, Atkins is sometimes billed as the second coming of Randy Wells, for whatever that's worth. During his brief MLB stint, he didn't throw that all important sinker, but he might have used it in Iowa. Probably not, his 2009 AAA GB rate was just .34. His velocity is below Wells', but his slider is similar. And Wells had a lot of success with that slider.

Atkins has received some accolades as a minor league, mostly thanks to high win totals. He didn't get many looks in 2009 (two innings plus an exhibition start in Yankee Stadium, sans PITCHf/x) and will probably find himself on the same back burner in 2010.

Ranking This Part of the Field

There are plenty of pitchers who will also get looks in Mesa. Some are pitching in the Caribbean and will get a look-see later on this off-season.

From this group of eight, I think three have a legitimate shot at the Opening Day roster:

  • Gray

  • Caridad

  • Russell


Two have a long shot:

  • Berg

  • Gaub


And three are destined for Des Moines:

  • Atkins

  • Parker

  • Stevens


So, it will probably be the opposite of what I'm predicting. I could have easily flipped Berg and Russell (hedge), too.

AAA stats from minorleaguesplits.com

Posted by Harry Pavlidis at 12/04/2009 09:00:00 PM  

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