Soft in the Middle: Center Field Options for the 2010 Cubs

Update: check out part two

Let's just assume Milton Bradley officially vacates right field, handing the spot back to Kosuke Fukudome. Reed Johnson, as we already know, hasn't been offered arbitration. This leaves center field open for the 2010 Cubs.

Counting out Fukudome and Johnson, the Cubs are left with two returning center fielders from 2009 -- Sam Fuld and Tyler Colvin. The glut of rumors around center fielders coming to Chicago, by trade or free agency, should be no surprise.

Including the two returning options, there are a few center fielders in the Cubs' system and the trade and free agent markets.

Returning	Minors	Free Agents	Trade Mentions
Tyler Colvin	James Adduci	Rick Ankiel	Curtis Granderson
Sam Fuld	Matt Camp	Marlon Byrd	Aaron Rowand
	Brandon Guyer	Mike Cameron
	Brett Jackson	Coco Crisp

There are other outfielders who have played center for a Cubs minor league affiliate, including Tony Campana (who played the position regularly in Daytona), but none worth mentioning. Including Tony Campana.

Hitting Projections

These r150 values are from CHONE. Here's Sean's explanation of the stat

The R150 column is linear weights runs per 150 games, or 625 plate appearances. This figure is based on what the player projection would have looked like in a neutral park and league, not on the projected stats for the park they are playing in.

Colvin      -18
Fuld        - 7

Adduci      -25
Camp        -28
Guyer       -27
Jackson     ???

Ankiel      - 8
Byrd          2
Cameron     - 5
Crisp       - 3

Granderson   13
Rowand      - 9

Let's group those another way. As a rule of thumb, 10 runs equals 1 win.

>  1 win  Granderson

>  0 win  Byrd

<  0 win  Crisp, Cameron, Fuld, Ankiel

< -1 win  Colvin, Jackson (being generous here)

< -2 win  Camp, Guyer, Adduci

Taking CHONE at face, it's about a one win gap from Granderson to Byrd. From there, it's a smaller step, but close to a win, to the next group. It's another win down to Colvin and Jackson, and yet another down to Adduci, Camp and Guyer. But we haven't considered defense yet.

Roaming Center Pasture

Starting with the players with sufficient MLB service time (Fuld barely), we can apply Jeff Zimmerman's uzr150 projections (age adjusted). Similar to the r150 for batting runs, this reflects the approximate number of runs saved (positive) or allowed (negative) compared to the average center fielder.

Cameron       4
Crisp         4
Granderson    1
Byrd          0
Rowand        0
Ankiel      - 5
Fuld        - 5

With just 162 innings of big league time in center, Fuld's projection should be taken with a grain of salt.

Where does this put our run totals so far?

Colvin      ???
Fuld        -12

Adduci      ???
Camp        ???
Guyer       ???
Jackson     ???

Ankiel      -13
Byrd          2
Cameron     - 1
Crisp         1

Granderson   14
Rowand      - 9

Granderson still stands alone, while Byrd, Cameron and Crisp bunch closer together. Fuld and Ankiel fade away with Rowand.

Awesome     Granderson
Acceptable  Byrd, Cameron, Crisp
Not Good    Rowand, Fuld, Ankiel
Not Likely  Colvin, Jackson
Please No   Camp, Guyer, Adduci

Camp's defense is well regarded (he also plays shortstop), but he's not Willie Mays. Based on what little I know about Colvin and Jackson's defense, they're probably closer to Please No than Not Likely.

If I'm Jim Hendry

The Cubs have to go outside the organization. Rowand or Ankiel would be an utter waste, Byrd, Cameron or Crisp fine for a year at a good price. Granderson is appealing, but the cost (in terms of young talent) is probably prohibitive.