More on Wind and Stadiums

Fish Sticks Against Cubs Arms

The following Cubs pitchers have faced current Marlins and have had pitches recorded by PITCHf/x:

Samardzija, Harden, Lilly, Marshall, Zambrano, Marmol, Cotts and Heilman

As a group, they threw 50% fastballs (including sinkers) and 50% strikes. Here's how that breaks out, staff vs. hitter.



Emilio Bonifacio and Alfredo Amezaga see a lot of heat, Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu do not. Wes Helms and Cantu see fewer strikes, while Brett Carroll scares no one.

Some of the Cubs have thrown at least 20 pitches to one or more Marlins. Using run values per 100 pitches, here's how they stack up.



Over a small sample, Cantu owns Carlos Zambrano. Hanley Ramirez has done well against Big Z, too. The rest of the match-ups favor the Cubs, to date. Overall, the Marlins hitters have put up an rv100 of 3 against the Cubs pitchers (that includes hitters that didn't make the cut for the Familiar Foes).

Last, but not least, Sean Marshall's pitch mix against the Marlins. Nothing unusual for Marshall, cutters and curves, cutters and curves.



Sean has faced 10 Marlins, here's how he worked the five he's seen the most.



I have more data to share, so check back for updates in this post, and new ones as the series continues.

Soto's Slow Start

Geovany Soto has been struggling at the plate. The Cubs broadcast teams seem to think it's due to the World Baseball Classic—Geo didn't get enough reps at the plate to be ready. You can also wonder about his shoulder. The Astros didn't wonder about it, they just ran. Another common observation is Soto has failed to attack pitches that he used to go after.

Soto played for the Cubs a bit in 2007, so we actually have three samples, by year, of Geo Data in PITCHf/x. The 2007 and 2009 happen to be similar sized data sets (225 and 262 pitches, respectively). Of course, for 2008, we've got plenty. 2214 pitches to be exact. Plus, there's the always handy Fangraphs. I'll use their batted ball stats, but not their zone stats. I derived those myself from PITCHf/x using my strike zone boundaries.

(2007/2008/2009)

Line Drive %   22.0/21.0/15.2
Ground Ball %  41.5/37.7/48.5
Fly ball %     36.6/41.4/36.4
HR/Fly ball %  20.0/14.7/ 0.0

Whether by luck, measurement error or actual deficiency, Soto's contact numbers are down. A drop in fly balls and line drives, fully replaced by grounders, along with a complete lack of home runs.

Swing .378/.420/.344
Chase .213/.207/.175
Watch .427/.375/.454

Let me pause there for a moment. I use a two-foot wide plate and the average of the PITCHf/x operator top/bottom zones. It's quite evident that Geo is swinging less. Not only at pitches out of the zone (Chase) but he's taking strikes (Watch).

Whiff .247/.259/.256
nkSLG .838/.644/.158

First, when he does swing, he's missing no more or less than usual. But, when he makes contact, the results are horrible. nkSLG is total bases on balls put in play (outs, hits and home runs). .509 is average, so Geo's obviously been hitting the ball very poorly, as indicated by the Fangraphs batted ball stats.

My take is not a happy one. Geo has two problems. He's not swinging at enough strikes and he's making lousy contact. I'll take some extra Chases with fewer Watches, assuming he's healthy.

Without some direct measures of contact quality, it's hard to go much further. It seems to me, however, that Geo's struggles are deeper than "luck", which is what he seems to be writing it off to (at least publicly).

Doug Davis Pitch Mix vs. Cubs

Following up on the main preview post, this time with Doug Davis. The Cubs haven't faced a lefty starter in a while. He throws a "fast"ball (86mph) but relies on a cutter (83). He really hammers the cutter if you have an unusual first name, such as "Aramis".

Davis is known for his curveball, a big breaker that's usually under 70 mph. He rounds it out with a change-up - if it's thrown well, it's about 7 mph under the fastball. Some games, I noticed it could be just 3 or 4 off the heater, which is just about useless. It does tail and sink a little bit, though.

Petit Preview

Yusmeiro Petit fills in for Brandon Webb against the Cubs tonight. He's faced the Cubs before, with mixed (mostly good) results. I've already looked at some of the Cubs hitters swing tendencies against Petit and a few of his mates. Now I'll go through his repertoire and, last, give you his pitch mix against the Cubs hitters.

Petit may cut or sink his fastball on occasion, but I'll lump the whole batch together. He throws a slurvey curve and a slutterly slider. Petit rounds it out with a change-up that sinks and tails away from righties.

With a fastball that averages just above 88 mph, you shouldn't be surprised that nearly half of his pitches are of the off-speed and breaking variety.

Petit pitches since 2007 (as seen by PITCHf/x)

Pitch      #   MPH
Change    226  80
Curve     213  75
Slider    362  82
Fastball  893  88

Throwing more change-ups to lefties and more sliders to righties, is never more than 65% likely to throw you a fastball (full counts to RHH). Petit does throw all of his pitches to start an at bat, and he gets ahead more often than not with each of them.

Against the Cubs

Here's his approach against the current Cubs, including the many many injured ones. There's more on these match-ups, and more, at the other preview post.

Cubs Hitters vs. Arizona Pitchers

Lots'o'data

Have fun.

Dan Haren

first	last	stand	#pitches	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	TBP
Reed	Johnson	R	25	0.560	0.143	0.125	0.235	0.333	0.040
Kosuke	Fukudome	L	19	0.316	0.167	0.000	0.333		0.000
Aaron	Miles	L	18	0.611	0.000	0.500	0.300	0.333	0.056
Aramis	Ramirez	R	17	0.647	0.182	0.714	0.400	0.000	0.000
Ryan	Theriot	R	11	0.455	0.200	0.667	0.800	0.000	0.000
Derrek	Lee	R	10	0.500	0.000	0.250	0.333	0.000	0.000
Alfonso	Soriano	R	10	0.700	0.000	0.750	0.500	0.500	0.200
Geovany	Soto	R	9	0.444	0.500	0.000	0.333	0.000	0.000
Mike	Fontenot	L	2	0.500	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
Milton	Bradley	L	1	1.000	0.000		0.000	0.000	0.000
			122	0.533	0.123	0.400	0.358	0.191	0.033

Doug Davis

first	last	stand	#pitches	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	TBP
Derrek	Lee	R	37	0.378	0.071	0.278	0.526	0.667	0.108
Aramis	Ramirez	R	39	0.513	0.350	0.478	0.438	0.250	0.026
Alfonso	Soriano	R	22	0.636	0.286	0.500	0.125	0.250	0.046
Milton	Bradley	R	28	0.571	0.125	0.385	0.267	0.167	0.036
Reed	Johnson	R	10	0.600	0.000	0.800	0.600	1.000	0.300
Joey	Gathright	L	7	0.857	0.167	0.800	0.000	0.667	0.286
Geovany	Soto	R	18	0.389	0.286	0.000	0.222	1.000	0.222
Ryan	Theriot	R	39	0.385	0.000	0.350	0.579	0.222	0.051
Kosuke	Fukudome	L	12	0.250	0.000	0.167	0.667	0.000	0.000
			212	0.476	0.168	0.389	0.424	0.450	0.085

Yusmeiro Petit

first	last	stand	#pitches	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	TBP
Derrek	Lee	R	8	0.625	0.000	0.250	0.000	0.800	0.500
Aramis	Ramirez	R	28	0.429	0.167	0.231	0.400	0.000	0.000
Alfonso	Soriano	R	13	0.615	0.125	0.375	0.000	0.667	0.154
Milton	Bradley	L	16	0.438	0.143	0.125	0.250	0.333	0.063
Mike	Fontenot	L	24	0.417	0.200	0.200	0.429	0.800	0.167
Geovany	Soto	R	10	0.400	0.250	0.000	0.429	0.000	0.000
Ryan	Theriot	R	33	0.364	0.083	0.231	0.550	0.286	0.061
Kosuke	Fukudome	L	14	0.286	0.250	0.143	0.571	0.500	0.071
			146	0.425	0.145	0.212	0.400	0.452	0.096

Scott Schoeneweis

first	last	stand	#pitches	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	TBP
Milton	Bradley	R	14	0.714	0.200	0.429	0.000	2.000	0.286
Reed	Johnson	R	7	0.143	0.000	0.167	1.000	0.000	0.000
Aaron	Miles	R	5	0.200	0.000	0.000	0.000		0.000
Mike	Fontenot	L	1	1.000	0.000		0.000	0.000	0.000
Ryan	Theriot	R	10	0.400	0.000	0.200	0.400		0.000
Micah	Hoffpauir	L	3	0.333	0.000	0.000	0.500	1.000	0.333
			40	0.450	0.111	0.217	0.235	1.000	0.125

Jon Rauch

first	last	stand	#pitches	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	TBP
Derrek	Lee	R	3	0.667	0.500	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Aramis	Ramirez	R	2	1.00	0.500		0.000	0.000	0.000
Aaron	Miles	L	4	0.750	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.500	0.250
Mike	Fontenot	L	7	0.143	0.000	0.000	0.750		0.000
Ryan	Theriot	R	6	0.333	0.000	0.000	0.600	0.500	0.167
Micah	Hoffpauir	L	3	0.667	0.500		0.333		0.000
Kosuke	Fukudome	L	3	0.667	0.000	0.500	0.000	0.000	0.000
			28	0.500	0.214	0.125	0.350	0.286	0.071

Flash Gordon

first	last	stand	#pitches	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	TBP
Derrek	Lee	R	4	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.500	0.000	0.000
Aramis	Ramirez	R	4	0.000		0.000	1.000		0.000
Alfonso	Soriano	R	6	0.667	0.250	0.667	0.333	2.000	0.333
Milton	Bradley	L	4	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000
Aaron	Miles	L	1	1.000	0.000		0.000	0.000	0.000
Ryan	Theriot	R	11	0.455	0.200	0.200	0.333	1.000	0.182
Kosuke	Fukudome	L	4	0.250	1.000	0.000	0.667		0.000
			34	0.382	0.231	0.177	0.412	1.333	0.235

Chad Qualls

first	last	stand	#pitches	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	TBP
Derrek	Lee	R	16	0.313	0.000	0.100	0.333	0.500	0.063
Aramis	Ramirez	R	12	0.333	0.500	0.143	0.400	0.000	0.000
Alfonso	Soriano	R	11	0.636	0.571	0.667	0.400	2.000	0.182
Milton	Bradley	L	9	0.444	0.000	0.000	0.429	0.000	0.000
Reed	Johnson	R	2	0.500	0.000		0.500	0.000	0.000
Aaron	Miles	L	2	0.500	0.000		0.500	1.000	0.500
Mike	Fontenot	L	13	0.692	0.556	0.600	0.250	0.000	0.000
Ryan	Theriot	R	30	0.433	0.154	0.250	0.357	0.250	0.033
Micah	Hoffpauir	L	4	0.750	0.333	0.667	0.000		0.000
Kosuke	Fukudome	L	2	1.000	0.000		0.000	0.500	0.500
			101	0.485	0.286	0.306	0.346	0.375	0.059

Tony Pena

first	last	stand	#pitches	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	TBP
Derrek	Lee	R	16	0.438	0.286	0.200	0.455	0.250	0.063
Aramis	Ramirez	R	17	0.588	0.100	0.000	0.231	0.200	0.059
Milton	Bradley	L	8	0.500	0.250	0.333	0.400	0.000	0.000
Reed	Johnson	R	5	0.200	0.000	0.000	0.667	0.000	0.000
Aaron	Miles	L	14	0.571	0.250	0.500	0.400	0.333	0.071
Mike	Fontenot	L	4	0.500	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.000	0.000
Joey	Gathright	L	3	0.667	0.000		0.333		0.000
Geovany	Soto	R	8	0.375	0.000	0.250	0.500	0.000	0.000
Ryan	Theriot	R	16	0.375	0.000	0.000	0.143	1.000	0.188
Kosuke	Fukudome	L	4	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.667	1.000	0.250
			95	0.463	0.136	0.152	0.371	0.318	0.074

Arizona Activates Flash

Tom Gordon is done with his AAA rehab and will be ready to pitch against the Cubs, according to KTAR. The Diamondbacks also called up a flame-throwing rookie on Sunday. More on him over at Beyond the Boxscore.

Cubs Pitchers vs. Arizona Hitters

The Cubs finish their second road trip of 2009 with three games in Arizona. Several Cubs pitchers have faced Diamondbacks hitters. Here's a look at the six who have seen the most action. It includes all three scheduled starters and three key relievers (including one who may be healthy enough to pitch before the flight back to Chicago).

Pitch Mix

Click images to enlarge. Each of these charts includes a marker (a dark line) above the left-handed hitters. There are no hitters below Lilly's line, as he's only faced righties (and switch-hitters). Only active players included (so no Stephen Drew).













Here's the data behind the graphs - please take note of the minuscule sample sizes. Click headers to sort.

Carlos Zambrano

first	last	bats	#pitches	Sinker	Fastball	Splitter	Change	Slider	Cutter	Curve
Tony	Clark	L	14	21%	21%	21%		7%	29%
Felipe	Lopez	L	41	27%	5%	27%		0%	41%
Augie	Ojeda	L	6	50%	17%	0%		0%	33%
Eric	Byrnes	R	8	13%	50%	0%		25%	13%
Mark	Reynolds	R	7	0%	14%	0%		57%	29%
Chris	Snyder	R	7	14%	43%	0%		43%	0%
Chris	Young	R	12	8%	25%	0%		50%	17%

Carlos Marmol

first	last	bats	#pitches	Sinker	Fastball	Splitter	Change	Slider	Cutter	Curve
Felipe	Lopez	L	28		50%			50%
Augie	Ojeda	L	18		67%			33%
Chad	Tracy	L	8		25%			75%
Miguel	Montero	L	8		63%			38%
Eric	Byrnes	R	21		57%			43%
Chris	Snyder	R	18		50%			50%
Conor	Jackson	R	24		50%			50%
Mark	Reynolds	R	26		35%			65%
Chris	Young	R	19		53%			47%
Justin	Upton	R	11		45%			55%

Ted Lilly

first	last	bats	#pitches	Sinker	Fastball	Splitter	Change	Slider	Cutter	Curve
Tony	Clark	R	14		64%		0%		29%	7%
Felipe	Lopez	R	48		58%		6%		27%	8%
Eric	Byrnes	R	34		29%		15%		26%	29%
Augie	Ojeda	R	22		68%		0%		27%	5%
Chris	Snyder	R	47		49%		13%		21%	17%
Conor	Jackson	R	41		49%		24%		20%	7%
Mark	Reynolds	R	31		48%		6%		19%	26%
Chris	Young	R	48		35%		19%		15%	31%
Justin	Upton	R	25		40%		28%		12%	20%

Aaron Heilman

first	last	bats	#pitches	Sinker	Fastball	Splitter	Change	Slider	Cutter	Curve
Felipe	Lopez	L	3		33%		67%	0%
Augie	Ojeda	L	4		75%		25%	0%
Chad	Tracy	L	4		50%		50%	0%
Miguel	Montero	L	11		55%		45%	0%
Chris	Snyder	R	7		43%		43%	14%
Conor	Jackson	R	9		44%		33%	22%
Mark	Reynolds	R	10		60%		30%	10%
Justin	Upton	R	13		54%		31%	15%

Kevin Gregg

first	last	bats	#pitches	Sinker	Fastball	Splitter	Change	Slider	Cutter	Curve
Tony	Clark	L	9		56%	0%		44%
Felipe	Lopez	L	8		88%	13%		0%
Augie	Ojeda	L	2		50%	50%		0%
Miguel	Montero	L	6		83%	17%		0%
Eric	Byrnes	R	6		67%	0%		33%
Chris	Snyder	R	7		86%	0%		14%
Conor	Jackson	R	10		30%	50%		20%
Mark	Reynolds	R	13		69%	8%		23%
Chris	Young	R	13		69%	23%		8%
Justin	Upton	R	5		40%	20%		40%

Ryan Dempster

first	last	bats	#pitches	Sinker	Fastball	Splitter	Change	Slider	Cutter	Curve
Tony	Clark	L	8	25%	13%	50%	13%	0%
Felipe	Lopez	L	39	59%	21%	13%	0%	8%
Augie	Ojeda	L	10	30%	40%	30%	0%	0%
Eric	Byrnes	R	6	17%	17%	33%	0%	33%
Chris	Snyder	R	16	25%	13%	6%	0%	56%
Conor	Jackson	R	16	44%	13%	6%	6%	31%
Mark	Reynolds	R	13	69%	0%	8%	0%	23%
Chris	Young	R	14	21%	7%	0%	0%	71%
Justin	Upton	R	22	27%	5%	0%	0%	64%

Outcomes etc.

Starter	#pitches	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	TBP
Ted Lilly	310	0.374	0.267	0.163	0.436	0.895	0.110
Carlos Zambrano	95	0.421	0.225	0.222	0.400	0.438	0.074
Ryan Dempster	144	0.410	0.322	0.269	0.424	0.261	0.042

Reliever	#pitches	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	TBP
Kevin Gregg	79	0.418	0.303	0.296	0.429	0.100	0.013
Aaron Heilman	61	0.410	0.400	0.200	0.444	0.571	0.066
Carlos Marmol	181	0.387	0.286	0.218	0.457	0.773	0.094

Pitchers	#pitches	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	TBP
Starters	549	0.392	0.274	0.201	0.427	0.650	0.086
Relievers	321	0.399	0.312	0.234	0.448	0.569	0.069
All	870	0.394	0.288	0.213	0.434	0.620	0.080

All told, the Arizona hitters appear to be patient, still whiffing a lot, but doing about average overall against these pitchers.

Swing=swings/pitches (average ~.46)
Whiff=misses/swings (average ~.19)
Chase=swing rate on pitches out of zone (average ~.27)
Watch=take rate on pitches in the zone (average ~.37)
nkSLG = total bases divided by balls in play (includes home runs) (average ~.51)
TBP = total bases per pitch (average ~.10)

Cashner Makes 2009 Debut

Cubs prospect Andrew Cashner made his first appearance of the year on Sunday for High-A Daytona. Returning from an oblique injury, Cashner was pretty good:

Cashner's fastball was in the 91-93 mph range and topped out at 96 mph in his 2 2/3 innings. He struck out two and allowed one run on a hit, a walk and a hit batter.

Cashner was the Cubs first pick (19th overall) in the 2008 draft.

A Note on Harden's Velocity

He was great in his last three innings today - I have details over at ACB.

Update on Patton's Fastball Locations

After David Patton's third outing as a Cub, I noted a trend in his fastball location - started down in game 1, moved up in game 2, and even more in game 3. His fourth outing was a welcome departure from that pattern, but the results were not good.

Anyway, here are the charts - I've added the 4/25 game, obviously, but I've also put in the "slices" of the plate, the horizontal location. The slices aren't of equal size - fat is 10 inches and in/out are 7 inches each. Yes, that makes the plate 24", but that is closer to reality than the 17" plate.



First outing was OK. The fastball was down (too down) and he mixed up the locations and stayed away from the middle of the plate.



This is a bad pattern. Up and Fat. Considering the dimensions of the out/in/fat slices, a pitcher is well served having the total pitches finding Out and In exceeding, or being close to, the number in the Fat.



Even more "up" and still a lot of Fat. Starts missing wide.


Patton had trouble finding the strike zone in St. Louis. He was all over the place, which could be a result of the long lay off. Or he might belong in Double-A.

Harden vs. Wellemeyer 4/26/09

The Cubs need a win. No panic buttons (it is April, after all), but no one likes getting swept.

Please see one of the previous previews for explanations of the data. Tables are sortable, click the image for a larger version.

Rich Harden

Keep an eye on Harden's velocity. It's been declining for a couple of years, was noticeably down against the Rockies, but he should be "back to normal" today. More on that topic here.

Harden has barely faced the Cardinals - four current red birds were in the line-up against Harden last September, and he practically gave each one a different look:



Todd Wellemeyer

Wellemeyer has faced his former team a fair amount. I'm including Big Z since he's on tap to pinch hit or even play infield. That won't happen, right? Wellemeyer throws a four- and two-seam fastball, I'm lumping them in as "fastball" below.

first	last	bats	#pitches	Fastball	Change	Slider
Alfonso	Soriano	R	38	0.526	0.000	0.474
Reed	Johnson	R	43	0.581	0.023	0.395
Geovany	Soto	R	44	0.614	0.046	0.341
Derrek	Lee	R	44	0.614	0.000	0.386
Kosuke	Fukudome	L	23	0.652	0.348	0.000
Mike	Fontenot	L	32	0.656	0.281	0.063
Aramis	Ramirez	R	33	0.727	0.030	0.242
Ryan	Theriot	R	44	0.727	0.000	0.273
Carlos	Zambrano	L	5	1.000	0.000	0.000

first	last	bats	#pitches	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch
Alfonso	Soriano	R	38	0.605	0.478	0.583	0.357
Derrek	Lee	R	43	0.568	0.280	0.350	0.250
Reed	Johnson	R	44	0.465	0.250	0.455	0.524
Geovany	Soto	R	44	0.409	0.167	0.056	0.346
Mike	Fontenot	L	23	0.344	0.091	0.211	0.462
Ryan	Theriot	L	32	0.364	0.063	0.091	0.364
Aramis	Ramirez	R	33	0.424	0.000	0.000	0.300
Kosuke	Fukudome	R	44	0.348	0.000	0.000	0.273
Carlos	Zambrano	L	5	0.200	0.000	0.000	0.500

first	last	bats	#pitches	nkSLG	TBP
Carlos	Zambrano	R	38	4.000	0.800
Mike	Fontenot	R	43	0.600	0.094
Kosuke	Fukudome	R	44	0.000	0.000
Derrek	Lee	R	44	0.200	0.046
Aramis	Ramirez	L	23	0.333	0.091
Alfonso	Soriano	L	32	1.000	0.079
Reed	Johnson	R	33	0.714	0.116
Geovany	Soto	R	44	0.286	0.046
Ryan	Theriot	L	5	0.444	0.091

Ruhlman Promoted - Should Cotts Take Notice?

The Cubs promoted lefty reliever Jayson Ruhlman to Iowa on Saturday. Drafted in 2006 out of Central Michigan, Ruhlman got off to a fast start in Boise. As he's moved up (one year at Low-A and High-A) his numbers have dipped a little.

It took just 6.3 innings in Double-A for Ruhlman to get the call to Iowa. Ruhlman joined fellow lefties J.R. Mathes and Jason Waddell in the I-Cubs bullpen and got into action right away, giving up one hit while striking out one batter in just a third of an inning.

None of the Iowa lefties are on the Cubs 40-man roster at this time, but there are a few open slots in case Lou finally throws in the towel on Neal Cotts.

Boggs vs. Marshall 4/25/09

The Cubs saw Mitchell Boggs out of the bullpen last week, scored one run in two innings off the righty. The stuff they saw was different from how he's mixed his pitches in other games (mostly as a starter):



We'll see how much the curveball gets used coming out of the gates this afternoon, but we should expect him to throw a lot more four-seam fastballs than what we last saw.

Sean Marshall has a longer track record against the Cardinals roster.

Click to sort.

Sean Marshall vs. Cardinals

Pitch Mix

first	last	stand	#	Cutter	Curve	Fastball	Slider	Sinker	Change
Rick	Ankiel	L	18	33.3%	22.2%	5.6%	11.1%	27.8%	0.0%
Chris	Duncan	L	19	36.8%	47.4%	0.0%	5.3%	10.5%	0.0%
Skip	Schumaker	L	14	42.9%	28.6%	21.4%	0.0%	7.1%	0.0%
Jason	LaRue	R	2	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Albert	Pujols	R	44	34.1%	25.0%	11.4%	13.6%	6.8%	9.1%
Ryan	Ludwick	R	30	33.3%	40.0%	6.7%	6.7%	3.3%	10.0%
Khalil	Greene	R	14	35.7%	14.3%	28.6%	7.1%	0.0%	14.3%
Yadier	Molina	R	32	31.3%	21.9%	18.8%	9.4%	6.3%	12.5%
Brian	Barden	R	6	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Brendan	Ryan	R	24	33.3%	37.5%	8.3%	16.7%	4.2%	0.0%
			203	36.5%	28.6%	11.8%	9.4%	7.4%	6.4%

Plate discipline

Swing=swings/pitches
Whiff=misses/swings
Chase=swing rate on pitches out of zone
Watch=take rate on pitches in the zone

first	last	stand	#	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch
Rick	Ankiel	L	18	0.556	0.200	0.333	0.333
Chris	Duncan	L	19	0.474	0.222	0.308	0.167
Skip	Schumaker	L	14	0.786	0.364	0.667	0.125
Jason	LaRue	R	2	0.500	0.000	0.000	0.000
Albert	Pujols	R	44	0.318	0.071	0.160	0.474
Ryan	Ludwick	R	30	0.533	0.125	0.182	0.263
Khalil	Greene	R	14	0.500	0.429	0.600	0.556
Yadier	Molina	R	32	0.344	0.182	0.118	0.400
Brian	Barden	R	6	0.333	0.000	0.000	0.500
Brendan	Ryan	R	24	0.500	0.167	0.286	0.412
			203	0.458	0.194	0.247	0.364

Rough and indirect measures of contact quality and effectiveness:

nkSLG = total bases divided by balls in play (includes home runs) (league average ~.51)
TBP = total bases per pitch (league average is ~.10)

first	last	stand	#	nkSLG	TBP
Rick	Ankiel	L	18	0.500	0.167
Chris	Duncan	L	19	2.500	0.263
Skip	Schumaker	L	14	0.000	0.000
Jason	LaRue	R	2	0.000	0.000
Albert	Pujols	R	44	0.125	0.023
Ryan	Ludwick	R	30	0.556	0.167
Khalil	Greene	R	14	0.000	0.000
Yadier	Molina	R	32	0.286	0.063
Brian	Barden	R	6	1.000	0.333
Brendan	Ryan	R	24	1.200	0.250
			203	0.546	0.118

Cubs vs. Wainwright

Click headers to sort.

Pitch classifications are my own - freshly updated. Wainwright's four-seam fastball may include just a couple or more sinkers and cutters.

Pitch Mix

first	last	stand	Pitches	Fastball	Change	Slider	Curve
Derrek	Lee	R	53	45.3%	0.0%	28.3%	26.4%
Aramis	Ramirez	R	53	66.0%	1.9%	17.0%	15.1%
Alfonso	Soriano	R	62	41.9%	0.0%	35.5%	22.6%
Milton	Bradley	L	6	66.7%	0.0%	0.0%	33.3%
Koyie	Hill	L	13	53.9%	7.7%	0.0%	38.5%
Mike	Fontenot	L	33	48.5%	12.1%	3.0%	36.4%
Geovany	Soto	R	25	36.0%	8.0%	44.0%	12.0%
Ryan	Theriot	R	45	66.7%	0.0%	22.2%	11.1%
Micah	Hoffpauir	L	9	33.3%	22.2%	33.3%	11.1%
Kosuke	Fukudome	L	17	47.1%	41.2%	11.8%	0.0%

Plate discipline

Swing=swings/pitches
Whiff=misses/swings
Chase=swing rate on pitches out of zone
Watch=take rate on pitches in the zone

first	last	stand	Pitches	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch
Derrek	Lee	R	53	0.396	0.191	0.231	0.444
Aramis	Ramirez	R	53	0.396	0.191	0.125	0.191
Alfonso	Soriano	R	62	0.387	0.292	0.256	0.316
Milton	Bradley	L	6	0.000		0.000	1.000
Koyie	Hill	L	13	0.231	0.000	0.000	0.667
Mike	Fontenot	L	33	0.485	0.188	0.375	0.412
Geovany	Soto	R	25	0.400	0.400	0.154	0.333
Ryan	Theriot	R	45	0.422	0.053	0.191	0.375
Micah	Hoffpauir	L	9	0.556	0.000	0.000	0.375
Kosuke	Fukudome	L	17	0.471	0.250	0.333	0.375

To give you a rough and indirect idea of contact quality:

nkSLG = total bases divided by balls in play (includes home runs)
TBP = total bases per pitch

first	last	stand	Pitches	nkSLG	TBP
Derrek	Lee	R	53	0.000	0.000
Aramis	Ramirez	R	53	0.700	0.132
Alfonso	Soriano	R	62	0.556	0.081
Milton	Bradley	L	6		0.000
Koyie	Hill	L	13	0.000	0.000
Mike	Fontenot	L	33	0.571	0.121
Geovany	Soto	R	25	0.750	0.120
Ryan	Theriot	R	45	0.250	0.067
Micah	Hoffpauir	L	9	0.250	0.111
Kosuke	Fukudome	L	17	1.200	0.353

Dempster vs. Cardinals

Click headers to sort.

Pitch classifications are my own - freshly updated all the way back to 2007 for Dempster.

Pitch mix

First	Last	Bats	Pitches	Sinker	Fastball	Splitter	Change	Slider
Jason	LaRue	R	8	37.5%	25.0%	12.5%	0.0%	25.0%
Rick	Ankiel	L	36	25.0%	27.8%	44.4%	0.0%	2.8%
Albert	Pujols	R	45	37.8%	17.8%	11.1%	0.0%	33.3%
Ryan	Ludwick	R	35	28.6%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	57.1%
Chris	Duncan	L	22	45.5%	13.6%	40.9%	0.0%	0.0%
Khalil	Greene	R	33	21.2%	12.1%	9.1%	0.0%	57.6%
Yadier	Molina	R	37	54.1%	13.5%	2.7%	8.1%	21.6%
Skip	Schumaker	L	60	41.7%	13.3%	28.3%	3.3%	13.3%
Brian	Barden	R	12	41.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	58.3%
Brendan	Ryan	R	4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Plate discipline

Swing=swings/pitches
Whiff=misses/swings
Chase=swing rate on pitches out of zone
Watch=take rate on pitches in the zone

First	Last	Bats	Pitches	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch
Jason	LaRue	R	8	0.500	0.250	0.333	0.400
Rick	Ankiel	L	36	0.444	0.500	0.200	0.381
Albert	Pujols	R	45	0.422	0.105	0.280	0.400
Ryan	Ludwick	R	35	0.571	0.300	0.308	0.273
Chris	Duncan	L	22	0.273	0.333	0.286	0.750
Khalil	Greene	R	33	0.485	0.313	0.421	0.429
Yadier	Molina	R	37	0.514	0.053	0.364	0.267
Skip	Schumaker	L	60	0.600	0.222	0.429	0.160
Brian	Barden	R	12	0.333	0.500	0.286	0.600
Brendan	Ryan	R	4	0.250	0.000	0.500	1.000

To give you a rough and indirect idea of contact quality:

nkSLG = total bases divided by balls in play (includes home runs)
TBP = total bases per pitch

First	Last	Bats	Pitches	nkSLG	TBP
Jason	LaRue	R	8	0.000	0.000
Rick	Ankiel	L	36	0.250	0.028
Albert	Pujols	R	45	0.500	0.111
Ryan	Ludwick	R	35	1.000	0.314
Chris	Duncan	L	22	0.000	0.000
Khalil	Greene	R	33	0.667	0.121
Yadier	Molina	R	37	0.222	0.054
Skip	Schumaker	L	60	0.571	0.133
Brian	Barden	R	12	0.000	0.000
Brendan	Ryan	R	4	0.000	0.000

Harden Slow, Not Scary Slow

Covering 30 Rich Harden starts, going back to 2007, Harden's most recent outing was one of the worst yet in terms of velocity. It wasn't even the slowest he's been, according to PITCHf/x, but close. In other words, I'm not concerned until he repeats this. In the past, when he's this off in velocity, it improves the next time out, even just a little.

Taking Harden's velocity for his fastball only, measured both at "release" (55 ft. from the plate) at the front edge of the plate (technically 1.417 ft, as measured from the back of the plate) to add some level of control to park-to-park variance in pitch data.

Taking those two values, by start, and simply grabbing their max, min and average values, voila, you have a rank order of 30 games by six measures.

Release Speed  
Max   Avg   Min
29    28    28
 
Plate Speed  
Max   Avg   Min
29    25    21

He was slow, but nothing that we haven't seen before.

Error bars on the average speeds are +/- one standard deviation. Click to enlarge.





No, you're not imagining - his velocity is declining overall.

Shark on the Way, Cubs to Eat Some More Dough

According to cubs.com, and elsewhere, Jeff Samardzija is being recalled on Thursday. Luis Vizcaino is expected to be released or traded. Either way, more money down the drain.

Samardzija will work out of the bullpen, no change in Marshall's status.

Cubs Plate Discipline Trends

This will be a graphical journey, in what ever order blogger chose to dump the graphs into this post. We have PITCHf/x data now for as many as four years. "Years" meaning 2006 playoffs, parts of 2007 and virtually all of 2008 and 2009. Time to start looking at some trends over time, even if the season is young.

For today, I'll focus on "plate discipline". I'm using three measures, plus one extra. "Swing" is simply swings divided by pitches seen. That's graphed in green (as in go). "Chase", the black bar, is swing rate for pitches outside of each hitter's strike zone. I do use a 24" plate, which is how the game is typically played. "Watch" is truly the inverse of chase. It's the rate of pitches taken in the zone (red bar, naturally). Or, 1 minus swings in the zone. The bonus measure is "nkSLG", or non-K slugging, or slugging on contact (total bases divided by all balls in play, including home runs). That's in blue. Under each set of bars are two numbers. The number of pitches counted for that year, and ... the year.

Enough yammering, on with the show ... next time I'll look at how pitchers have approached these guys.

Updated: Start it off with a baseline, using all pitches in the database (over 1 million) and just the Cubs (over 31k).






Theriot swings less than almost every major leaguer, and his Watch rate is also around the top.


Geo's off to a very slow start, some blame the WBC. I think he's taking too many strikes.


You can see a trend emerging. The difference between Chase and Watch has been shrinking. Keep it up, Fonzie. BTW, he crushes the ball, league average for nkSLG is around .500.


Aramis is hot now, but he's actually showing poor judgment early in the season. Nothing too surprising, though.


Get the bat off your shoulder, Aaron, and maybe you'll hit something hard(er).


Lee's eye may have declined a bit - but it may be how he's being pitched to.


Not a lot of playing time, but Reed is actually looking quite patient.


Swing at everything, Hoffpauir. Hit it hard or miss it.


Hill is also on a hot streak.


Joey hasn't put the ball in play yet. Showing extreme patience.


This is a good start for Kosuke. Great eye, good contact.


Little Bate Ruth is a patient hitter.


And Mr. Zone Judgment himself, Milton Bradley.


I did save this one for the end - totals for each hitter.

How Long Before Pittsburgh Sends Him Back?

Please take a moment to vote in the poll

Lilly vs Wellemeyer - Game 4

Re-match over three games in St. Louis next weekend.

Todd Wellemeyer against the Cubs:

click to sort, if you're viewing this on cubsfx.com

first	last	stand	#	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	TBP
Derrek	Lee	R	44	0.568	0.280	0.350	0.250	0.200	0.046
Aramis	Ramirez	R	33	0.424	0.000	0.000	0.300	0.333	0.091
Alfonso	Soriano	R	38	0.605	0.478	0.583	0.357	1.000	0.079
Reed	Johnson	R	43	0.465	0.250	0.455	0.524	0.714	0.116
Mike	Fontenot	L	32	0.344	0.091	0.211	0.462	0.600	0.094
Geovany	Soto	R	44	0.409	0.167	0.056	0.346	0.286	0.046
Ryan	Theriot	R	44	0.364	0.063	0.091	0.364	0.444	0.091
Kosuke	Fukudome	L	23	0.348	0.000	0.000	0.273	0.000	0.000
			301	0.449	0.207	0.253	0.358	0.407	0.073

Ted Lilly against the Cardinals:

first	last	stand	#	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	TBP
Jason	LaRue	R	10	0.900	0.444	0.833	0.000	0.000	0.000
Rick	Ankiel	L	40	0.500	0.150	0.333	0.316	0.778	0.175
Albert	Pujols	R	106	0.396	0.071	0.292	0.439	0.684	0.123
Ryan	Ludwick	R	85	0.435	0.270	0.262	0.395	0.600	0.071
Chris	Duncan	L	7	0.429	0.000	0.000	0.400	0.333	0.143
Khalil	Greene	R	23	0.609	0.214	0.400	0.231	0.000	0.000
Yadier	Molina	R	66	0.576	0.105	0.394	0.242	0.438	0.106
Skip	Schumaker	L	34	0.559	0.053	0.471	0.353	0.083	0.029
Brian	Barden	R	4	0.250	0.000	0.333	1.000		0.000
Brendan	Ryan	R	75	0.467	0.200	0.342	0.405	0.333	0.053
			450	0.484	0.161	0.342	0.357	0.438	0.087

Bonus - Lilly pitch selections

Lohse vs. Dempster

PITCHf/x numbers on today's batter/pitcher match-ups.

Some notes - Ludwick sees tons of breaking pitches, swings at everything, misses often, but crushes Dempster. Greene has seen almost as much of Dempster's breaking stuff, but with zilch in terms of success. Dempster doesn't seem to like throwing changes-ups and splitters to Mr. Pujols.

Lee and Fontenot have done well against Lohse, Kosuke looks lost against him.

Click table headers to sort (only works on cubsfx.com)

Cubs vs. Lohse

first	last	#	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	TBP
Kosuke	Fukudome	27	0.370	0.100	0.546	0.750	0.500	0.111
Derrek	Lee	40	0.450	0.111	0.375	0.438	0.875	0.175
Alfonso	Soriano	28	0.536	0.333	0.375	0.250	0.429	0.107
Aramis	Ramirez	20	0.450	0.222	0.364	0.444	0.500	0.150
Reed	Johnson	10	0.600	0.000	0.333	0.286	0.333	0.100
Ryan	Theriot	42	0.405	0.000	0.286	0.476	0.636	0.167
Milton	Bradley	13	0.385	0.200	0.143	0.333	0.000	0.000
Geovany	Soto	33	0.242	0.125	0.063	0.588	0.571	0.121
Mike	Fontenot	42	0.286	0.083	0.042	0.389	0.667	0.095
		255	0.392	0.130	0.263	0.467	0.571	0.126

Cardinals vs. Dempster

first	last	#	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	TBP
Jason	LaRue	8	0.500	0.250	0.250	0.250	0.000	0.000
Rick	Ankiel	18	0.444	0.375	0.385	0.400	0.333	0.056
Albert	Pujols	31	0.452	0.071	0.250	0.333	0.556	0.161
Ryan	Ludwick	26	0.654	0.353	0.455	0.200	1.000	0.308
Chris	Duncan	4	0.250	1.000	0.333	1.000		0.000
Khalil	Greene	19	0.579	0.364	0.500	0.286	0.000	0.000
Yadier	Molina	31	0.484	0.067	0.333	0.200	0.333	0.065
Skip	Schumaker	53	0.585	0.258	0.500	0.200	0.636	0.132
Brendan	Ryan	4	0.250	0.000	0.500	1.000	0.000	0.000
		194	0.526	0.245	0.408	0.284	0.523	0.119

Bonus: Dempster Pitch Selections vs. Cardinals

first	last	#	Fastball	Off-Speed	Breaking Ball
Jason	LaRue	8	0.625	0.125	0.250
Rick	Ankiel	18	0.333	0.611	0.056
Albert	Pujols	31	0.677	0.097	0.226
Ryan	Ludwick	26	0.346	0.000	0.654
Chris	Duncan	4	0.500	0.500	0.000
Khalil	Greene	19	0.316	0.211	0.474
Yadier	Molina	31	0.677	0.129	0.194
Skip	Schumaker	53	0.509	0.359	0.132
Brendan	Ryan	4	0.000	0.000	1.000
		194	0.500	0.227	0.273

Cubs PITCHf/x Plate Discipline - "Career" Lines

I've been using these #'s for a while, and in some recent posts. These are career stats. Career=games since 2007 that were covered by PITCHf/x.

Swing is swings/pitches
Whiff is misses/swings
IWZ means pitch In Wide Zone
Chase is swing rate out of the zone
Watch is take rate in the zone (inverse of swing rate in the zone)
nkSLG is total bases divided by balls in play (including home runs)
TBP is total bases divided by pitches

You can click the table headers to sort them (that only works if you are viewing this on cubsfx.com).

first	last	#	Swing	Whiff	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	TBP
Joey	Gathright	1615	0.502	0.141	0.547	0.317	0.345	0.332	0.076
Ryan	Theriot	3600	0.403	0.079	0.556	0.215	0.448	0.376	0.084
Aaron	Miles	1975	0.502	0.083	0.547	0.339	0.364	0.409	0.105
Reed	Johnson	2104	0.474	0.199	0.530	0.347	0.412	0.493	0.097
Kosuke	Fukudome	2614	0.406	0.157	0.521	0.210	0.414	0.508	0.082
Mike	Fontenot	1940	0.420	0.190	0.493	0.237	0.393	0.530	0.091
Koyie	Hill	327	0.477	0.301	0.529	0.318	0.382	0.537	0.089
Derrek	Lee	4134	0.418	0.197	0.513	0.214	0.388	0.580	0.105
Aramis	Ramirez	3544	0.479	0.183	0.496	0.285	0.324	0.638	0.123
Geovany	Soto	2426	0.417	0.259	0.508	0.210	0.382	0.653	0.110
Milton	Bradley	2756	0.446	0.244	0.525	0.193	0.326	0.709	0.113
Alfonso	Soriano	2975	0.544	0.264	0.427	0.412	0.280	0.772	0.146
Micah	Hoffpauir	308	0.539	0.271	0.474	0.377	0.281	0.778	0.136

Soriano's Early Returns - More Patient in 2009

Over on Facebook, TJ asked me what Soriano's plate discipline was looking like so far this season. The question comes up since he's been drawing walks and raking the ball. The former being an oddity in Fonzie's case.

Using the as-played 24 inch plate and Alfonso's average zone top/bottom #'s from all of his PITCHf/x plate appearances, I find that the early returns confirm what we've seen - he's chasing less garbage.

Year	#	Swing	Whiff	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	TBP
2007	1012	0.5751	0.2612	0.4279	0.4249	0.2240	0.8877	0.1640
2008	1795	0.5281	0.2669	0.4279	0.4070	0.3099	0.6968	0.1331
2009	149	0.5101	0.2237	0.4228	0.3605	0.2857	0.8333	0.1678

Swing is swings/pitches
Whiff is misses/swings
IWZ means pitch In Wide Zone
Chase is swing rate out of the zone
Watch is take rate in the zone (inverse of swing rate in the zone)
nkSLG is total bases divided by balls in play (including home runs)
TBP is total bases divided by pitches

So, Sori is hitting the ball as well as he did in 2007, based on the last two columns, is seeing a few less strikes, but is laying off balls better than he has in the past. He's also swinging at more of those strikes.

When I have some more time, I'll break-out pitch type, like I've been doing for Fukudome. And, more importantly, see how these numbers move as the sample size increases.

Milton's Eye is Too Good

Just about every hitter and umpire behaves as if the plate is 24 inches wide, not 17 inches wide. Milton Bradley may be able to tell the difference. But it didn't do him any good when pinch hitting against the Cardinals.

These three pitches were called strikes, the last was the borderline strike three and does appear to be off the plate. But barely.

Click for larger version:



This is from the catcher's view, measured in feet, and is marked where the ball crosses the front edge of home plate. It is accurate within a third of baseball's width. Or better. Strike zone height is Bradley's average zone from all of his PITCHf/x data.

Patton's Fastball is Rising, and Not in a Good Way

I know, this is my third straight Patton post. But check this out.



Click for a larger image; the fastball counts by game were 13, 19 and 13. Not exactly big samples, but enough to raise an eyebrow. Especially when it is apparent when you watch his outings.

"High" and "Low" are out of a hitter's zone*. The rest are even thirds from top to bottom. I noted after his first game he kept the ball down, way down. The situation seems to have reversed.


*zone is defined by a 24 inch "plate" and each hitter's averaged zone settings across all PITCHf/x plate appearances

An Update on David Patton

David Patton got into his second big league game on Wednesday, coming on early to relieve Rich Harden (more on Rich's three innings later). David worked two frames, again, and looked good.

I'm going to skip some detail and just run down where things stand between me, Patton and PITCHf/x

• I really do think that's a curveball, based on the Wrigley data and...


• His release point split remains in place, which lends credence to the curveball classification


• Patton's good at this pitching thing


• He didn't keep the ball down as well as he did in Milwaukee


• David threw two change-ups. One of them may be a different pitch, possibly a splitter


• There may have been a two-seam fastball in there, but...


• I need more data for those last two points.

Veal f/x and More Patton

I borrowed a bit of my earlier David Patton piece for this week's Hardball Times article. I mixed in some flight paths and added Donald Veal for a look at the Cubs Rule 5 pitchers lost and gained.

Fukudome's Improvements in PITCHf/x

As I noted at the end of March, Fukudome had a rough World Baseball Classic. Over a very small sample of pitches during the WBC, Fukudome was:

• Patient
• Not chasing balls
• Whiffing on pitches at an alarming rate

Suddenly, he's hitting like the Fukudome of old. Old, as in the first two months of 2008.

Oddly, Fukudome is yet to face a left-handed pitcher in the regular season. To compare the WBC to the MLB games, I just took the right-handed pitchers from the Classic, which took the sample down to just 32 pitches. Fukudome has seen 71 pitches since the regular season started.

These pitch counts are just what's in PITCHf/x, so the WBC games in Japan are not included, and any pitches from the regular season that were not recorded by Gameday are also missing, obviously.

The first difference between the two samples are the pitchers' pitch selections - Fukudome saw more off-speed and breaking stuff in the Classic than he did fastballs, while the opposite holds the regular season.



How Kosuke is handling pitches has also changed. Here's a look at swing rates, whiff rates, IWZ (2 ft. wide zone strikes), Chase (swings out of the zone) and Watch (takes in the zone; the inverse of swing rate).

Fastballs first:


Fukudome is seeing more fastballs for strikes, but he's swinging less and taking a lot of fastballs in the zone. His whiff rate has plummeted from the scary small sample numbers to something more reasonable - but not fantastic.

Now the off-speed and breaking stuff:


Again, strange stuff. More swings, less whiffs (yea!) but, suddenly, he's chasing pitches out of the zone.

So, now Fukudome is

• Swinging at more off-speed pitches out of the zone
• Taking more fastballs in the zone
• Whiffing a lot less

Once Fukudome faces some lefties in front of the PITCHf/x cameras, I'll add back in the rest of his pitches from the WBC and take another look. Adding the lefties in the Classic sample takes his fastball swing rates closer to what they are in the regular season to date. We'll see how that holds up.