Zambrano, Dempster and Wells + Sox HITf/x

I'm doing a few posts at South Side Sox this weekend. Check 'em out.

Randy Wells

Ryan Dempster

Carlos Zambrano

HITf/x Snapshot of the April White Sox

Series Wrap-up (coming soon)

Draft Pick Update

At Out of the Ivy, I run down the majority of the 2009 Cubs draft picks and their status, and nearly all of the top 20.

Rick Porcello PITCH/fx - Sinker, Sinker, Sinker

As advertised, right-handed Tigers rookie Rick Porcello is a sinker-baller, no doubt about it. I think the pictures and numbers will do the talking, but, in short, it's his only good pitch.

Pitch Characteristics (speed and spin)

Pitch	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z	DEG	RPM
Change	82	-9	4	248	1789
Curve	76	5	-6	42	1355
Sinker	92	-9	4	245	2055
Fastball	93	-5	8	211	1938
Slider	80	5	-1	95	1068

Flight Paths:



Pitch Mix




Pitch Outcomes: Swings and Locations

Pitch	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch
Change	0.459	0.289	7.8	0.327	0.318	0.250
Curve	0.309	0.265	5.8	0.364	0.143	0.400
Sinker	0.480	0.106	1.6	0.616	0.282	0.388
Fastball	0.328	0.136	4.0	0.373	0.167	0.400
Slider	0.371	0.391	3.9	0.403	0.270	0.480

Slices and Layers, all pitches:



Strike Zone Locations, selected pitches:



Pitch Outcomes: Batted Balls

Pitch	GB%	FB%	LD%	HRFB%	IFFB%	HRLD%
Change	55%	25%	20%	20%	40%	0%
Curve	27%	45%	27%	40%	0%	0%
Sinker	63%	21%	16%	7%	20%	3%
Fastball	29%	57%	14%	25%	0%	0%
Slider	38%	50%	13%	50%	0%	0%

Pitch Outcomes: Slugging and Run Value

Pitch	SLGCON	rv100	RVAA
Change	0.550	1.669	1.636
Curve	1.000	3.056	3.362
Sinker	0.387	-1.497	-12.037
Fastball	1.000	4.026	2.698
Slider	1.125	2.578	1.598

Edwin Jackson PITCHf/x

Tigers righty Edwin Jackson is having a career year, and has drawn the opening start against the Cubs. Jackson will face Carlos Zambrano, who will likely insist on pinch hitting (at least!) in the last two games of the series.

The American League Champion Rays sent Jackson packing in a deal that sent Matt Joyce to Tampa Bay. Jackson showed signs of improvement in 2008, cutting down on his walks, and gave up one run in 4.1 innings of relief in the playoffs. Jackson is just 25-years old, and the Tigers appear to be beneficiaries of a live arm that seems to have found the strike zone.

PITCHf/x Exhibit A: Pitch Types

Before moving on, it's important to understand what Jackson throws. Albeit partially. I haven't split his two- and four-seam fastballs, which could end up being important. Or irrelevant.

Fastball  95 mph
Change    87
Slider    87
Curveball 80

A couple of notes on the pitch types and speeds:

• Jackson's fastball may have dropped a half a mph since 2007 and 2008, but that could simply be noise and/or some extra two-seamers; in any case he throws serious heat


• The change runs up to 90 mph far too often for my taste


• The slider can also hit 90, or run down to around 83—it's a good pitch


• The curve appeared a couple times in the limited 2007 data, but is getting more and more use; he'll run this pitch down into the 70s, also keeps it below slider speed

PITCHf/x Exhibit B: Pitch Selection

Pitch mix, by season and batter hand:



His change-up is being pushed away by better pitches—more the quality of these pitches below—something Detroit spotted that Tampa didn't?

PITCHf/x Exhibit C: Pitch Results

Good news	Bad news
Fastball finds the zone a lot more (.552 to .610), SLGCON dropping (.639,.555,.424). "On pace" for a 30+ rvaa improvement over 2008	HR/FB is low, LD rate is lower, too, this could leave plenty of space for regression. BTW, his overall BABIP is .255 in 2009
No longer throws curve for strikes (.459 to .310) but hitters haven't figured that out yet (.450 chase, .586 swing rate); no one hits it hard (SLGCON .167) and it's mostly grounders (67%); rv100 an amazing -4.596, already saved 2.7 runs (-2.666 rvaa)	Lefties could start laying off the curve, which could bring about a change the the batter-pitcher balance
The change and slider balance out in terms of quality, and there have been no real changes in terms of results, but he is using the slider more often against lefties	The change is not a good pitch, it gets hit hard

Gratuitous Flight Paths



Summing Up

1. Edwin Jackson is throwing more strikes


2. He's not getting hit hard, with some component of luck


3. Lefties haven't adjusted to his now out-of-the-zone curveball


4. He's a "different" pitcher with three quality pitches (FA,CU,SL) instead of two (FA,SL) and one crappy one (CH)

Limitations

Other than small samples, I'm not looking at pitch movement (there are hints of a difference in the slider this year, maybe) and not breaking out the fastball beyond a generic classification.

Cubs Pitching Staff - Best and Worst of 2009

Using some of my favorite PITCHf/x metrics, here are how the current Cubs have fared in 2009. I'm not including traded (Luis Vizcaino), injured (Chad Fox) or demoted (Jeff Samardzija). For individual pitch ratings, minimum 20 pitches thrown (that's not a a lot, but roll with it)

Run Value per 100 Pitches (rv100)
0 is "average", so a negative value means a pitcher (in this case) yields less runs per 100 than average.

Best Fastball      Angel Guzman      -1.664
Worst Fastball     Sean Marshall      3.336

Best Sinker        Jose Ascanio      -5.760
Worst Sinker       David Patton       2.933

Best Change/Split  Jose Ascanio      -2.739
Worst Change/Split Ted Lilly          1.703

Best Cutter        Carlos Zambrano   -3.260
Worst Cutter       Jose Ascanio       3.377

Best Curve         Jose Ascanio      -1.982
Worst Curve        Angel Guzman       3.190

Best Slider        Randy Wells       -2.627
Worst Slider       Aaron Heilman      1.206

Best Reliever      Angel Guzman      -1.902
Worst Reliever     David Patton       0.558

Best Starter       Randy Wells       -1.303
Worst Starter      Rich Harden        0.551

Let's try some other metrics, too.

Highest GB%      David Patton    56.1%
Lowest  GB%      Ted Lilly       32.7%

Highest LD%      Aaron Heilman   20.5%
Lowest  LD%      Angel Guzman    12.4%
  
Highest HR/FB    David Patton    0.188
Lowest  HR/FB    Carlos Marmol   0.031
  
Highest IFFB/FB  Carlos Marmol   0.531
Lowest  IFFB/FB  David Patton    0.063

Highest Whiff    Rich Harden     0.317
Lowest Whiff     Carlos Zambrano 0.157

Highest IWZ      Ted Lilly       0.625
Lowest IWZ       Aaron Heilman   0.484

BTW, Lilly leads the majors in pitches In Wide Zone (2 ft plate).

You can download all the data used for this post (Excel).

One More Against the Tribe - Jeremy Sowers PITCHf/x

It's Sunday, and the Cubs will try and sweep the Indians and 26 year old lefty Jeremy Sowers. Today was supposed to be an extra night at home with a day off Monday, but the rain laden Cubs will jet to Atlanta for one game before making their way back to interleague play in Detroit Tuesday.

Hello, Mr. Sowers

Sowers was one of several candidates for the back of the Cleveland rotation heading into 2009:

Jeremy Sowers might be the most familiar name on this list, though his chances of cracking the starting rotation appear quite grim. The finesse lefty has posted a FIP in excess of five in the big leagues in ‘07 and ‘08, and even his 2006 showing that got people talking (3.57 ERA) produced just a 4.57 FIP. Sowers is basically Aaron Laffey without the groundballs. At best, he’s an adequate fifth starter in the majors.

David Golebiewski on Sowers' shot at the Indians' rotation (2/15/09 Fangraphs)

While he didn't make the cut out of camp, Sowers got his second call-up of the season on May 25. Facing the Rays at home, Sowers only threw 57 pitches in 5 innings (source.

Next four starts:

21 IP
1  HR
10 BB
12 SO

Just the last three:

16 IP
1  HR
5  BB
9  SO

Sowers is stretching out, and threw 99 pitches the last two times out. His performance is fair, but he's sitting at a 5.03 FIP for 2009, which matches his career number.

While he has been impressive during his minor league career, Sowers has never been overpowering with his stuff:

AAA (Int'l League)
291 IP (6.32 per start)
26  HR (0.4 per 9IP)
78  BB (2.4)
187 SO (5.8)

PITCHf/x Profile

Type	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z	DEG	RPM
Change	83.1	6.4	4.5	124.2	1,513.4
2-seam FB	90.5	8.2	5.8	124.6	2,054.6
4-seam FB	90.1	5.0	7.7	147.4	1,870.0
Slider	80.9	-2.4	-0.2	259.4	587.1

Sowers' two-seam fastball (F2) adds more tail than sink off his fastball (F4), and matches up (spin-wise) with his change-up (CH). His slider (SL) gets slurvey and usually has good horizontal movement. It's the sink on the breaking pitch that tends to vary.

So, to summarize, blah blah blah and now the graphs. For each pitch, clockwise from the top-left ... "Strikes" pitches in the "wide" zone, which is two-feet across and set to the top/bottom values for each hitter in PITCHf/x (averaged out over all games), charted against whiff rate (misses/swings) ... Batted Ball types are marked by the MLB stringers ... Run Value Above Average ("rvaa") is a linear weight based stat (0=average) based on each pitch's result, and is the counting version .... "rv100" is the rate version, simply the run value of the pitch per 100 times thrown. Negative numbers are better, so you'll notice (for the run values) the y-axis is upside-down.











It's as if the slider and the change can't co-exist peacefully. And that four-seam fastball isn't really a quality pitch, although Sowers is having more success with it in 2009.

Tomo Ohka - Older and Better

Tomo Ohka faces the Cubs on Saturday, as the Indians try and recover from Friday's loss. The Cubs came back to win, despite being down 7-0 against Cliff Lee.

A brief history

Ohka is a 33 years old and appeared in 34 games over five years in Japan before being sold to the Red Sox in 1999. Cleveland is the eighth franchise for the right-hander. Ohka went from Boston to Montreal and made the move to D.C. when the Expos became the Nationals.

After a stint with the Brewers, Ohka was back in Canada in 2007 as a Blue Jay. Released by Toronto that June, Ohka was picked-up by the Cardinals. He never got past Memphis, and in mid-July the Mariners signed him to yet another minor-league deal. Tacoma was his final stop there, although he did at least make it through the season.

The White Sox were the next gambler, and Ohka spent 2008 in Triple-A Charlotte, having signed as a minor league free agent. The Indians signed Ohka to his next contract, he was eventually assigned to Columbus. After nine starts in Triple-A, Ohka was summoned to the majors at the end of May.

sources: Baseball Reference and Wikipedia

PITCHf/x

Ohka throws a bunch of pitches, delivers close to over-the-top, and tends to put some cut on his fastball. His slider can go from sluttery to slurvey.

Change (CH) 81.8 mph (blue)
Curve (CU) 75.1 (coral)
Two-Seam Fastball (F2) 87.6 (dark red)
Four-Seam Fastball (F4) 88.4 (yellow)
Splitter (FS) 81.0 (red)
Slider (SL) 83.0 (black)

Here is Ohka's spin movement plot (values are in inches, catcher's view).



Ohka is a different pitcher than he was two years ago. First, his pitch mix has changed. Keep in mind, these are small samples, less than 750 pitches are available in PITCHf/x for Ohka.



That's a big change. How about the results? Using run values derived from the pitch-by-pitch data, Ohka is a below average pitcher overall, but has kicked a few things up a bit in 2009.

I'm going to start with rv100 (run value above average per 100 pitches, negative numbers are better for pitchers) over the two partial seasons available, and then convert that rate stat to a counting stat (straight up RVAA) for both seasons. Finally, the RVAA for 2009 alone.







Other than the whopping change in pitch mix, Ohka's slider and change have improved.

Slider
Liners have turned into grounders, a few more whiffs

              2007     2009
GB/FB/LD  33/34/33  54/41/5
Whiff        0.102    0.132

Change
Grounders and liners have become flies, SLGCON plummeted

              2007     2009
GB/FB/LD  40/20/40  25/75/0
SLGCON       1.100    0.250

---

Stay hot, Cubs. Ohka may be a nice break from Cliff Lee, and a quicker route to that lovely Cleveland bullpen.

Thirteen Seven-Run Comebacks

The Cubs pulled off a real trick today, something they've only done 13 times in the last 56+ seasons. Coming from seven down against the Indians is even more impressive in that context.

More at Out of the Ivy

Cliff Lee - Still Tough, But Not 2008 Tough

Cliff Lee is amazing. His increased use of a sinker in 2008 helped take him from the verge of washing out to a Cy Young Award. Lee had a little bit of a slow start in 2009, but is throwing strikes and getting outs at impressive rates. His near no-hitter in his last start serves as a bad omen for the Cubs.

Cliff Lee's Pitches

Breaking down Lee's pitches wasn't horribly difficult, but there are over 5000 of them available in PITCHf/x dating to 2007.

             #   vs LHH    vs RHH   MPH    DEG     RPM
Change     717     0.2%     19.7%    84    129    2079
Curve      431    11.4%      7.3%    76    321    1650
Sinker    1745    23.3%     38.6%    92    137    2382
Fastball  1755    49.3%     28.3%    91    158    2307
Cutter     391    11.9%      5.9%    86    205    1091
Slider      64     4.0%      0.1%    79    230     535

The slider is a rarely used weapon, essentially a change-up from his cutter. Notice the spin axis (DEG) for the change and how it is closely aligns with this sinker (two-seam fastball).



Flight Paths

Before getting into the quality/outcomes of his stuff, here are three looks at Lee's flight paths. All six pitches, followed by the four he most often throws to left-handed hitters and then the three he throws to righties.







No, I didn't split the last two sets of flight paths by batter hand. The images are made of the average all pitches to all batters Lee faced under the watchful eye of PITCHf/x.

Run Values

My most favoriteist way of measuring "quality" lately has been run values. Based on the expected runs for a given count, the average pitch(er) will pile-up a run value of zero. Negative numbers are good for pitchers, meaning less runs allowed than average. The stat is typically expressed in terms of run value per 100 pitches (rv100). You can get more info on the run values I'm using over here.

rv100      2007   2008   2009
Change     3.04  -0.48   1.68
Curve      0.67  -0.50   0.96
Sinker     3.21  -1.24  -1.25
Fastball  -2.30  -1.36  -0.55
Cutter     6.59   0.36   0.10
Slider     3.93  -5.62  -0.29

As I write this, the possibility (liklihood) of tweaking the basis for the run values exists. It shouldn't dramatically impact what you're seeing here, though. I'll let you know if it does.

Don't get too excited about that slider, he threw 40 of them all of 2008. If I use cumulative run values above average (RVAA) instead of using the rate stat rv100, I can compare, accounting for pitch mix, the total value of each pitch. To do so, I'm doing something quick-and-dirty. Lee threw 2.3x more pitches in 2008 than in 2009. Go figure, it's only June. So, I'm just multiplying Lee's run values by 2.3.



Behind those run values are real events, like batted balls, swinging strikes and everything else. In Lee's case, the changes are being driven by a few factors, based on a comparison to 2008.

• Lee is actually missing more bats with his change up (.24 whiff, up from .18 in 2008) but it's still getting hit hard (SLGCON .583, up from .455)


• The increased slugging against the change seems related to an increase in line drives (18% from 13%) and even an oddly high rate of line drives leaving the park (18%, I think that's 3-4x higher than average, but I have to re-check that)


• It's a similar story with Lee's four-seam fastball. His ground ball rate has dropped from 37% down to 28%, with seven of those nine percentage points going to his line drive rate


• Still, his SLGON has barely crept up (.453 from .435) against the fastball; he's lost a run per 100 fastballs not put in play, though


• Lee's strike rate with his fastball, measured by IWZ (in wide zone, two foot plate) has dropped from .64 to .60 and umpires are calling more balls (1.6 B:CS ratio, up from 1.2). Still, good stats, just not as pristine as last season


• While the sinker, to a lesser extent than the fastball, has found the zone, and the umpire's favor, less often this year, it has been effective when put in play


• Sporting a 51% ground ball rate, the sinker only yields a SLGCON of .370. Result: an rv100 of -3.11 on balls in play, which is insane. Just being below zero is impressive enough

Well, at least the Cubs have Rich Harden facing this guy.

Cliff Lee is going to pound the strike zone with all of his pitches, so don't be surprised if the Cubs swing early.

Updating Run Values by Count

Updated 6/20 Tom Tango noted some of the wOBA values were high, so I re-checked and found an under-count of some plate appearances. Looks better now, and the table below has been updated.

Thanks to Tom Tango and the many fine folks who hang around his blog (too many to thank) have made this possible. For a complete discussion and lots of resources, I suggest checking out this thread at Tango's site.

Using 2007-2009 data, from MLBAM's Gameday, I calculated the wOBA of each count, bounced that off a set of linear weights sussed out in the thread linked above, and re-checked my work. I'd greatly appreciate some external validation of the numbers, if anyone is will or finds something that doesn't pass the sniff test.

The following table is the result of the effort, and should look familiar (check that link for even more background/rationale on this method to rating pitches). I've added columns for HBP and Foul balls. Neither are necessary, as you can choose to handle the two-strike fouls in query/code and the HBP uses the same weight as a walk. I chose to create distinct columns for two reasons.

First, it keeps the query simpler in regards to handling two-strike counts. I simply don't address it in the look-ups I may run for a pitcher, since it is built into the table. Second, it leaves things readily open to using a distinct value for hit batters, and for future adjustments on two-strike values. We may find a way of assigning a value to fouling off pitches with two strikes some day. You'll also notice strike outs and other "nkOuts" are weighted the same, which is also tweakable if you wish.

The table is sortable if you're curious, but feel free to grab it and crank out your own pitch analysis with it. I do suggest reading the thread at Tango's so you get a feel for the assumptions/limitations/alternatives.

Ball	Strike	wOBA	RE	vB	vS	v1B	v2B	v3B	vHR	vnkOUT	vHBP	vF
0	0	0.332	0.000	0.0401	-0.0441	0.4800	0.7800	1.0600	1.4000	-0.2800	0.3200	-0.0441
1	0	0.378	0.040	0.0662	-0.0512	0.4399	0.7399	1.0199	1.3599	-0.3201	0.2799	-0.0512
2	0	0.454	0.106	0.1134	-0.0662	0.3737	0.6737	0.9537	1.2937	-0.3863	0.2137	-0.0662
3	0	0.585	0.220	0.1003	-0.0752	0.2603	0.5603	0.8403	1.1803	-0.4997	0.1003	-0.0752
0	1	0.281	-0.044	0.0329	-0.0602	0.5241	0.8241	1.1041	1.4441	-0.2359	0.3641	-0.0602
1	1	0.319	-0.011	0.0513	-0.0644	0.4911	0.7911	1.0711	1.4111	-0.2689	0.3311	-0.0644
2	1	0.378	0.040	0.1043	-0.0726	0.4399	0.7399	1.0199	1.3599	-0.3201	0.2799	-0.0726
3	1	0.498	0.144	0.1755	-0.0788	0.3355	0.6355	0.9155	1.2555	-0.4245	0.1755	-0.0788
0	2	0.212	-0.104	0.0288	-0.1757	0.5843	0.8843	1.1643	1.5043	-0.1757	0.4243	0.0000
1	2	0.245	-0.076	0.0431	-0.2045	0.5555	0.8555	1.1355	1.4755	-0.2045	0.3955	0.0000
2	2	0.295	-0.032	0.0981	-0.2476	0.5124	0.8124	1.0924	1.4324	-0.2476	0.3524	0.0000
3	2	0.408	0.066	0.2543	-0.3457	0.4143	0.7143	0.9943	1.3343	-0.3457	0.2543	0.0000

No, Not Him. The Other Guy.

In which I reject Mark DeRosa in favor of Casey McGehee.

Scouting Anthony Swarzak

The Cubs will face the Twins sometime after noon today. It's raining in Chicago, but that will clear up and rookie Anthony Swarzak will face the Cubs and Rich Harden (who is on a pitch count of about 85).

Swarzak has made four starts since being called up before Memorial Day. His first outing was his best.

date         vs    dec       IP      H     ER     BB      SO
2009-05-23  MIL      W      7.0      5      0      2      3
2009-05-28  BOS      L      6.0      5      3      4      3
2009-06-03  CLE      -      4.0      9      6      0      3
2009-06-08  oak      -      3.2      4      3      3      3

Swarzak throws a sinker along with a slurvey slider, four-seam fastball and change-up.

Type	#	vs LHH	vs RHH	MPH
Change	49	24	25	81.7
Sinker	224	100	124	91.6
Fastball	54	25	29	92.0
Slurve	38	11	27	76.6

Oddly, Swarzak looks to have thrown no four-seam fastballs in his latest, and shortest, outing. More on that after a segue into pitch classifcations. First, the spin movement and spin axis scatter graphs. Scroll on down if these make your eyes glaze over.

• Movement is in inches, catcher's perspective. Bubble size in the movement chart is based on speed.
• For the second chart for each start, spin axis is flipped to match the movement graphs, speed is on the y-axis and bubble size is based on spin rate.
• Spin axis has the arm angle subtracted out, spin movement does not.
• Confused? Leave questions in the comments.

The spin axis on the change, and therefore the movement, match the sinker, so I can see how that combination could be more effective/deceptive. And you could argue there were a few four-seamers in the mix on June 8. In any case, I'm not sure why he'd drop a pitch like that.

One way of looking at a pitch's effectiveness is to use linear weights, or run values. An average pitch would be rated a 0, and anything below 0 is good for the pitchers. Fangraphs shows you these numbers now, but I use my own data, pitch classifications and weight calculations, and I leave negative #'s negative, so you'll find differences if you compare the stats. Also, my weights are based on pitch count and outcome only, and are not adjusted for park factors.

Run value is cumulative and rv100 is a rate stat, averaged and adjusted to 100 pitches.

Pitch   Run Value   rv100
Change      1.947   3.973
Sinker     -1.583  -0.707
Fastball   -1.496  -2.771
Slurve      2.547   6.703

Often, a pitcher's best pitch isn't the one he'll throw the most. Maybe the infrequency is what makes it work. For a sinker baller, the four-seam is a "change" of sorts, and one that seems to have been used effectively, for three starts. If you're a Twins fan, you'll want him to bring it back today.

Roster Move
Bobby Scales is down to Iowa. Hart not up, as that would require another move. I must've imagined that (correction from earlier note here)

Batted Ball Speeds - Cubs/Astros Preview

Data is from April only. Initial velocity in MPH as measured by HITf/x. Nothing "new" from the charts I posted this weekend, but the colors have shifted a slot over.

Here are the Astros and Cubs current players, including Aaron Miles and Rich Harden, and Aramis Ramirez. Click for larger versions.

Cubs Pitchers and Hitters: Sample HITf/x Data

HITf/x is here-ish. A limited amount of data has been released in advance of the 2009 PITCHf/x Summit.

The data that's available to summit attendees (registration info at the link) comes from the month of April, and includes information about batted balls that's similar to what we get for pitches. With one big exception - spin. But we get speed (more below) and direction (which I'm still exploring).

The first charts I've put together are batted ball speed charts. Blocking everything in to 10 mph chunks (100+ goes up to the 116 range, actually) and graphing the distribution from red (hard hit) to blue (weak hit) creates an interesting visual. Don't stare too long or operate heavy machinary while under the influence of HITf/x.

The charts include guys who are still on the team, plus Joey Gathright for kicks. No Chad Fox or Luis Vizcaino.

Click to zoom. (new versions based on MB21's suggestions)

Cubs 100 Game Winners - Out of the Ivy

Carlos Zambrano has joined an exclusive club of Cubs’ pitchers. 20 men have gone before him, and just three since 1960.

Cubs 100 Game Winners

It was worth the bullpen induced heart attack.

Cubs History Against Derek Lowe

Mr. Sinker, Derek Lowe, faces the Cubs tonight in Atlanta. Here's the history of match-ups in the PITCHf/x era. Tables are sortable, just click the headers.

Fontenot and Lee have had some success against Lowe. The others, well, not so much. Small samples, naturally

batter	hits	#	Sinker	Fastball	Change	Slider
Milton Bradley	L	12	75%	0%	17%	8%
Aaron Miles	L	6	67%	0%	17%	17%
Mike Fontenot	L	18	44%	0%	44%	11%
Kosuke Fukudome	L	39	46%	0%	13%	41%
Derrek Lee	R	59	56%	0%	3%	41%
Aramis Ramirez	R	41	78%	0%	0%	22%
Alfonso Soriano	R	50	36%	2%	0%	62%
Reed Johnson	R	16	88%	0%	0%	13%
Geovany Soto	R	32	63%	0%	0%	38%
Ryan Theriot	R	36	75%	0%	0%	25%

batter	hits	#	B:CS	IWZ	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch
Milton Bradley	L	12	1.3	0.417	0.250	0.000	0.143	0.600
Aaron Miles	L	6	1.0	0.833	0.333	0.000	0.000	0.600
Mike Fontenot	L	18	1.3	0.444	0.444	0.250	0.200	0.250
Kosuke Fukudome	L	39	2.0	0.462	0.282	0.000	0.143	0.500
Derrek Lee	R	59	1.9	0.458	0.271	0.125	0.063	0.482
Aramis Ramirez	R	41	3.2	0.512	0.390	0.125	0.100	0.333
Alfonso Soriano	R	50	1.9	0.340	0.540	0.482	0.515	0.412
Reed Johnson	R	16	0.8	0.625	0.563	0.000	0.333	0.300
Geovany Soto	R	32	2.5	0.531	0.344	0.364	0.067	0.412
Ryan Theriot	R	36	1.0	0.639	0.333	0.167	0.154	0.565

batter	hits	#	nkSLG	GB%	FB%	LD%	rv	rv100
Milton Bradley	L	12	0.000	100%	0%	0%	-0.625	-5.208
Aaron Miles	L	6	0.500	50%	0%	50%	0.214	3.567
Mike Fontenot	L	18	0.800	40%	20%	40%	1.238	6.878
Kosuke Fukudome	L	39	0.143	86%	0%	14%	-0.919	-2.356
Derrek Lee	R	59	0.556	67%	22%	11%	1.034	1.753
Aramis Ramirez	R	41	0.200	60%	30%	10%	-1.121	-2.734
Alfonso Soriano	R	50	1.000	22%	78%	0%	-0.221	-0.442
Reed Johnson	R	16	0.200	60%	20%	20%	-0.695	-4.344
Geovany Soto	R	32	0.333	33%	17%	50%	-0.424	-1.325
Ryan Theriot	R	36	0.375	88%	0%	13%	-1.540	-4.278

Cubs vs. Dodgers Reviewed - Best and Worst Pitches

Catching up with the weekend series against the Dodgers, here's a list of the best and worst of the pitches used during the series. You'll notice the Cubs out-pitched the Dodgers, for the most part.

For this small sample surveys, I'm using run value as a counting stat, but I'm showing rv100 (the rate stat) along side. Do the math and you'll realize Ramon Troncoso's two fastballs were enough to put him on the Worst Pitches - Relievers list.

Best Pitches - Starters

Pitcher	Pitch	run value	rv100
Randy Wells	Slider	-2.764	-9.53
Ryan Dempster	Sinker	-1.995	-7.39
Ted Lilly	Cutter	-1.855	-5.01
Ted Lilly	Fastball	-1.482	-3.37
Chad Billingsley	Curveball	-1.295	-3.24

Best Pitches - Relievers

Pitcher	Pitch	run value	rv100
Angel Guzman	Sinker	-1.054	-21.08
Jose Ascanio	Sinker	-0.800	-26.67
Ramon Troncoso	Slider	-0.800	-8.89
Jonathan Broxton	Fastball	-0.667	-9.53
Cory Wade	Curveball	-0.633	-15.82

Worst Pitches - Starters

Pitcher	Pitch	run value	rv100
Jeff Weaver	Sinker	2.212	6.51
Eric Stults	Fastball	1.890	8.22
Eric Milton	Fastball	1.617	3.44
Sean Marshall	Slider	1.506	8.86
Jeff Weaver	Cutter	1.470	11.31

Worst Pitches - Relievers

Pitcher	Pitch	run value	rv100
Jose Ascanio	Fastball	0.954	9.54
Ramon Troncoso	Sinker	0.806	3.50
Angel Guzman	Cutter	0.588	8.40
Ramon Troncoso	Fastball	0.585	29.25
Guillermo Mota	Change Up	0.412	6.87

MVN's Mock Draft at MLB Outsider - Cubs Take Mike Minor

Mike Minor, a LHP from Vanderbilt, isn't likely to be around when the Cubs pick 31st on June 9. But he was still around in the MLB Outsider's mock draft, so I picked him. A little more about the pick, and the Cubs' recent draft history, is in my write-up at MVN. Be sure to check out the rest of the picks.

Participating in the mock draft was a learning experience for me, I think I lucked out having a guy like Minor slide all the way to the Cubs' slot. Who would you pick?

Cubs Visit Atlanta - Braves Staff Preview

The Cubs will miss Javier Vazquez (good) and Kris Medlen (ah, too bad). Here's the PITCHf/x from 2009 for the current Braves pitching staff. Starting with my opinions followed by the data I used. Draw your own conclusions.

Pitch types:
F4 (four-seam fastball); F2 (two-seam fastball or sinker); FC (cutter); SL (sliders and slurves); CU (curveballs); CH (change-ups)

                         Starters           Relievers
Best Change-Up           Vazquez            O'Flaherty
Best Breaking Pitch      Vazquez (CU)       O'Flaherty (SL)
Best Fastball            Lowe (F2)          Soriano (F4)
Best Stuff               Vazquez            O'Flaherty
                         Starters           Relievers
Worst Change-Up          Lowe               Campillo
Worst Breaking Pitch     Lowe (SL)          Bennett (SL)
Worst Fastball           Kawakami (F4)      Campillo (F4)
Worst Stuff              Medlen             Bennett
                         Starters           Relievers
Sleeper                  Jurrjens           Soriano
Don't Forget             Kawakami           Gonzalez

Tables are sortable, just click the headers.

pitcher	cfx	#	vs LHH	vs RHH	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z	DEG	RPM
Manny Acosta	F4	12	4	8	94.3	-2.8	9.6	196.3	2,134.6
Manny Acosta	SL	11	3	8	81.3	2.2	0.8	105.0	581.8
Jorge Campillo	FC	12	5	7	79.6	2.6	4.1	147.6	909.8
Jorge Campillo	CU	8	5	3	71.1	4.2	-5.3	41.7	1,134.7
Eric O'Flaherty	CH	46	8	38	82.2	6.7	4.2	123.6	1,496.5
Kris Medlen	CH	42	27	15	80.7	-8.5	6.6	232.1	1,942.4
Peter Moylan	CU	43	10	33	77.4	6.9	0.0	90.2	1,221.0
Derek Lowe	CH	27	21	6	83.9	-6.6	2.2	251.9	1,338.0
Kenshin Kawakami	FC	113	44	69	86.7	0.3	6.7	173.9	1,374.6
Jeff Bennett	F4	79	36	43	93.8	-2.4	9.6	193.6	2,090.5
Kenshin Kawakami	F2	84	59	25	90.2	-8.1	7.7	227.0	2,263.6
Manny Acosta	F2	38	9	29	95.1	-6.9	8.6	219.0	2,355.7
Kenshin Kawakami	CH	121	68	53	85.0	-7.5	3.9	243.3	1,636.3
Mike Gonzalez	SL	144	40	104	83.3	-0.5	0.1	195.6	362.7
Mike Gonzalez	F4	222	74	148	93.2	6.9	9.6	144.6	2,461.6
Jair Jurrjens	CH	211	141	70	83.2	-7.3	5.5	233.1	1,726.4
Rafael Soriano	SL	71	21	50	81.6	3.5	2.1	122.6	806.9
Derek Lowe	SL	358	183	175	81.9	2.4	0.6	108.2	563.4
Derek Lowe	F2	712	286	426	88.7	-8.8	3.5	248.1	1,897.7
Jair Jurrjens	F2	271	100	171	92.0	-6.4	8.3	217.6	2,159.4
Peter Moylan	F2	248	97	151	89.6	-7.7	-4.9	302.9	1,860.2
Javier Vazquez	CH	163	131	32	80.6	-6.6	6.0	227.3	1,643.1
Jair Jurrjens	SL	145	32	113	80.5	2.8	1.5	121.7	660.0
Jeff Bennett	F2	255	122	133	93.5	-6.9	6.6	226.4	2,016.2
Kenshin Kawakami	CU	144	51	93	69.9	7.6	-6.1	51.4	1,530.6
Javier Vazquez	F2	249	137	112	91.5	-8.4	7.1	229.8	2,256.5
Rafael Soriano	F2	30	27	3	92.3	-6.7	7.8	220.9	2,127.2
Eric O'Flaherty	F4	108	49	59	91.1	5.5	9.2	148.9	2,206.6
Jair Jurrjens	F4	308	173	135	91.7	-3.0	10.1	196.5	2,173.8
Rafael Soriano	F4	200	78	122	93.0	-3.1	10.0	196.9	2,194.8
Kris Medlen	CU	47	19	28	78.5	4.2	-4.0	53.7	1,033.4
Kenshin Kawakami	F4	379	147	232	90.4	-5.6	9.6	210.0	2,253.8
Javier Vazquez	F4	305	178	127	91.5	-4.7	9.2	206.8	2,130.0
Eric O'Flaherty	SL	77	55	22	83.8	-2.1	2.3	220.6	676.9
Kris Medlen	F4	129	54	75	89.4	-4.3	10.1	202.8	2,224.6
Javier Vazquez	SL	204	99	105	83.8	2.2	2.4	136.1	729.8
Eric O'Flaherty	F2	52	19	33	90.7	7.5	7.2	134.0	2,133.3
Javier Vazquez	CU	184	98	86	72.7	7.2	-5.1	55.3	1,445.8
Kris Medlen	F2	36	22	14	89.6	-7.4	7.0	226.8	2,058.2
Jorge Campillo	CH	14	12	2	73.2	-8.0	8.9	221.5	1,988.9
Jeff Bennett	SL	71	16	55	87.1	2.3	1.9	130.2	722.0
Peter Moylan	CH	26	25	1	79.2	-6.9	-2.5	288.9	1,371.4
Jorge Campillo	F4	32	20	12	84.1	-3.3	10.2	197.1	2,049.8
Mike Gonzalez	CH	2	0	2	79.5	5.3	7.3	145.0	1,598.0
Manny Acosta	CH	6	4	2	84.3	-4.8	8.3	209.4	1,846.5
Jeff Bennett	CH	1	1	0	88.6	-5.4	2.7	243.4	1,204.6
Rafael Soriano	FC	3	0	3	88.8	1.2	7.7	170.8	1,568.8
Jorge Campillo	F2	2	1	1	84.1	-6.3	9.0	215.8	2,079.8
Derek Lowe	F4	3	2	1	88.2	-5.0	7.4	213.6	1,763.9

pitcher	cfx	#	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	rv100	rv
Manny Acosta	F4	12	0.333	0.000	1.67	0.583	0.000	0.429	0.000	-7.08	-0.850
Manny Acosta	SL	11	0.273	0.667	1.00	0.546	0.000	0.500	0.000	-5.83	-0.641
Jorge Campillo	FC	12	0.500	0.333	5.00	0.250	0.444	0.333	0.000	-4.77	-0.573
Jorge Campillo	CU	8	0.250	0.000	2.00	0.750	0.000	0.667	0.000	-3.02	-0.242
Eric O'Flaherty	CH	46	0.478	0.182	5.00	0.304	0.375	0.286	0.100	-2.67	-1.226
Kris Medlen	CH	42	0.429	0.278	5.00	0.452	0.130	0.211	0.200	-1.42	-0.595
Peter Moylan	CU	43	0.372	0.438	1.60	0.349	0.286	0.467	0.333	-1.39	-0.598
Derek Lowe	CH	27	0.222	0.333	4.25	0.333	0.056	0.444	1.000	3.46	0.935
Kenshin Kawakami	FC	113	0.389	0.227	2.35	0.513	0.182	0.414	0.333	0.27	0.305
Jeff Bennett	F4	79	0.392	0.129	2.13	0.519	0.184	0.415	0.364	1.16	0.919
Kenshin Kawakami	F2	84	0.286	0.125	2.11	0.417	0.082	0.429	0.818	2.63	2.213
Manny Acosta	F2	38	0.421	0.063	3.20	0.553	0.118	0.286	0.200	-2.79	-1.061
Kenshin Kawakami	CH	121	0.595	0.306	8.80	0.380	0.427	0.130	0.640	0.62	0.745
Mike Gonzalez	SL	144	0.431	0.307	2.08	0.465	0.286	0.388	0.583	-0.79	-1.144
Mike Gonzalez	F4	222	0.405	0.178	1.50	0.514	0.333	0.509	0.708	-0.22	-0.480
Jair Jurrjens	CH	211	0.521	0.218	2.57	0.460	0.404	0.330	0.377	-1.32	-2.789
Rafael Soriano	SL	71	0.493	0.257	1.57	0.521	0.353	0.378	0.400	-1.24	-0.879
Derek Lowe	SL	358	0.422	0.278	2.20	0.330	0.300	0.322	0.600	0.20	0.713
Derek Lowe	F2	712	0.441	0.067	1.85	0.497	0.251	0.353	0.325	-1.78	-12.674
Jair Jurrjens	F2	271	0.447	0.083	2.00	0.565	0.212	0.360	0.614	0.97	2.641
Peter Moylan	F2	248	0.444	0.146	2.16	0.488	0.284	0.380	0.372	0.12	0.298
Javier Vazquez	CH	163	0.485	0.468	6.27	0.319	0.351	0.192	0.278	-3.01	-4.911
Jair Jurrjens	SL	145	0.393	0.298	5.21	0.372	0.231	0.333	0.207	-1.33	-1.923
Jeff Bennett	F2	255	0.447	0.105	1.66	0.565	0.279	0.396	0.392	-0.28	-0.716
Kenshin Kawakami	CU	144	0.549	0.266	2.10	0.507	0.394	0.301	0.436	-1.67	-2.406
Javier Vazquez	F2	249	0.398	0.141	1.47	0.506	0.163	0.365	0.577	0.38	0.941
Rafael Soriano	F2	30	0.333	0.000	5.67	0.300	0.191	0.333	0.600	3.01	0.902
Eric O'Flaherty	F4	108	0.500	0.148	0.79	0.694	0.273	0.400	0.263	-3.01	-3.254
Jair Jurrjens	F4	308	0.416	0.141	1.32	0.568	0.203	0.406	0.488	-0.78	-2.412
Rafael Soriano	F4	200	0.480	0.313	1.97	0.550	0.244	0.309	0.471	-3.22	-6.437
Kris Medlen	CU	47	0.362	0.118	1.31	0.660	0.188	0.548	0.625	0.54	0.256
Kenshin Kawakami	F4	379	0.401	0.138	1.70	0.515	0.147	0.344	0.727	1.67	6.319
Javier Vazquez	F4	305	0.492	0.267	1.20	0.551	0.212	0.280	0.868	0.31	0.943
Eric O'Flaherty	SL	77	0.455	0.257	3.44	0.416	0.311	0.313	0.273	-3.18	-2.445
Kris Medlen	F4	129	0.411	0.245	2.36	0.504	0.219	0.385	0.444	-0.70	-0.905
Javier Vazquez	SL	204	0.525	0.308	2.20	0.431	0.397	0.296	0.512	-0.27	-0.554
Eric O'Flaherty	F2	52	0.442	0.174	1.33	0.635	0.263	0.455	0.400	0.11	0.055
Javier Vazquez	CU	184	0.397	0.397	1.47	0.440	0.359	0.556	0.310	-3.98	-7.327
Kris Medlen	F2	36	0.250	0.000	1.25	0.472	0.105	0.588	0.167	-2.51	-0.903
Jorge Campillo	CH	14	0.643	0.444	-	0.286	0.500	0.000	0.667	2.35	0.329
Jeff Bennett	SL	71	0.437	0.290	4.00	0.479	0.243	0.353	0.818	4.40	3.124
Peter Moylan	CH	26	0.346	0.556	14.00	0.231	0.250	0.167	0.333	0.15	0.038
Jorge Campillo	F4	32	0.281	0.111	2.83	0.313	0.182	0.500	1.143	8.91	2.852
Mike Gonzalez	CH	2	0.500	0.000	0.00	1.000	-	0.500	0.000	-17.95	-0.359
Manny Acosta	CH	6	0.667	0.250	-	0.167	0.800	1.000	1.000	7.80	0.468
Jeff Bennett	CH	1	0.000	-	0.00	1.000	-	1.000	-	-6.10	-0.061
Rafael Soriano	FC	3	0.667	0.500	-	0.333	0.500	0.000	-	-0.17	-0.005
Jorge Campillo	F2	2	0.000	-	-	0.000	0.000	-	-	6.65	0.133
Derek Lowe	F4	3	0.333	0.000	-	0.333	0.000	0.000	-	11.40	0.342

pitcher	cfx	#	GB%	FB%	LD%	HR/FB	IF/FB	HR/LD
Manny Acosta	F4	12	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.500	-
Manny Acosta	SL	11	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	-
Jorge Campillo	FC	12	0.500	0.500	0.000	0.000	0.000	-
Jorge Campillo	CU	8	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-
Eric O'Flaherty	CH	46	0.800	0.200	0.000	0.000	0.000	-
Kris Medlen	CH	42	0.400	0.600	0.000	0.000	0.000	-
Peter Moylan	CU	43	0.333	0.667	0.000	0.000	0.500	-
Derek Lowe	CH	27	1.000	0.000	0.000	-	-	-
Kenshin Kawakami	FC	113	0.417	0.500	0.083	0.000	0.333	0.000
Jeff Bennett	F4	79	0.636	0.273	0.091	0.000	0.000	0.000
Kenshin Kawakami	F2	84	0.455	0.455	0.091	0.400	0.000	0.000
Manny Acosta	F2	38	0.600	0.300	0.100	0.000	0.000	0.000
Kenshin Kawakami	CH	121	0.400	0.480	0.120	0.083	0.083	0.000
Mike Gonzalez	SL	144	0.458	0.417	0.125	0.100	0.100	0.000
Mike Gonzalez	F4	222	0.250	0.625	0.125	0.067	0.267	0.000
Jair Jurrjens	CH	211	0.491	0.377	0.132	0.050	0.300	0.000
Rafael Soriano	SL	71	0.333	0.533	0.133	0.000	0.000	0.000
Derek Lowe	SL	358	0.455	0.400	0.146	0.046	0.136	0.000
Derek Lowe	F2	712	0.613	0.238	0.150	0.026	0.079	0.000
Jair Jurrjens	F2	271	0.509	0.333	0.158	0.053	0.053	0.111
Peter Moylan	F2	248	0.744	0.093	0.163	0.000	0.000	0.000
Javier Vazquez	CH	163	0.444	0.389	0.167	0.000	0.143	0.000
Jair Jurrjens	SL	145	0.345	0.483	0.172	0.000	0.357	0.000
Jeff Bennett	F2	255	0.608	0.216	0.177	0.000	0.273	0.000
Kenshin Kawakami	CU	144	0.410	0.410	0.180	0.000	0.188	0.000
Javier Vazquez	F2	249	0.423	0.385	0.192	0.100	0.150	0.000
Rafael Soriano	F2	30	0.400	0.400	0.200	0.000	0.000	0.000
Eric O'Flaherty	F4	108	0.421	0.368	0.211	0.000	0.286	0.000
Jair Jurrjens	F4	308	0.163	0.605	0.233	0.039	0.115	0.000
Rafael Soriano	F4	200	0.294	0.471	0.235	0.000	0.000	0.250
Kris Medlen	CU	47	0.625	0.125	0.250	0.000	1.000	0.000
Kenshin Kawakami	F4	379	0.349	0.394	0.258	0.077	0.115	0.000
Javier Vazquez	F4	305	0.290	0.447	0.263	0.177	0.235	0.000
Eric O'Flaherty	SL	77	0.364	0.364	0.273	0.000	0.250	0.000
Kris Medlen	F4	129	0.167	0.556	0.278	0.000	0.100	0.000
Javier Vazquez	SL	204	0.463	0.244	0.293	0.100	0.200	0.000
Eric O'Flaherty	F2	52	0.500	0.200	0.300	0.000	0.000	0.000
Javier Vazquez	CU	184	0.414	0.276	0.310	0.000	0.125	0.000
Kris Medlen	F2	36	0.333	0.333	0.333	0.000	0.000	0.000
Jorge Campillo	CH	14	0.333	0.333	0.333	0.000	0.000	0.000
Jeff Bennett	SL	71	0.182	0.273	0.546	0.000	0.000	0.000
Peter Moylan	CH	26	0.000	0.333	0.667	0.000	1.000	0.000
Jorge Campillo	F4	32	0.143	0.143	0.714	0.000	0.000	0.000
Mike Gonzalez	CH	2	0.000	0.000	1.000	-	-	0.000
Manny Acosta	CH	6	0.000	0.000	1.000	-	-	0.000
Jeff Bennett	CH	1	-	-	-	-	-	-
Rafael Soriano	FC	3	-	-	-	-	-	-
Jorge Campillo	F2	2	-	-	-	-	-	-
Derek Lowe	F4	3	-	-	-	-	-	-

A Couple Monday Links

Been quiet here again, sorry. That will change. For now, check out my latest on Geovany Soto's struggles at Out of the Ivy. Jason Waddell is included in the New Arms of the Week at Beyond the Box Score (something I do every Monday over there).

In a final act of self-promotion, join me tonight at 643 Sports, a call-in Internet Radio show. I'll be on a little after 7:00 CST (8 Eastern) to talk about PITCHf/x with Rich and Jon.