Gorzelanny PITCHf/x: Fastballs Updated

OK, fine. Since Tom Gorzelanny is going to start on Tuesday, I had to take the time to separate his two- and four-seam fastballs.

Click to enlarge (CH = Change; CU = Curve; F2 = Two-seam FB; F4= Four-seam FB; SL = Slider)





I'll have more after his Cubs debut.

Gorzelanny and Grabow PITCHf/x

Kevin Hart, Jose Ascanio and Josh Harrision were dealt to Pittsburgh for left-handed pitchers Tom Gorzelanny and John Grabow. Grabow will join Sean Marshall as the second lefty in the Cubs bullpen. Gorzelanny could be off to Iowa, no word yet.

I took a look at Grabow yesterday, and figured he's not much different than George Sherrill or Joe Beimel. Gorzelanny has also been covered here before, most recently before a game against Sean Gallagher.

I just updated Gorzelanny's fastballs. To expedite my re-introduction of Gorzelanny, I didn't bother to split his fastballs into two- and four-seamers. His fastball, as shown below, will have a lot of movement. In your mind's eye, think of two fastballs, one with a little more movement (tail and sink) than shown, one with less.

Type	#	vs LHH	vs RHH	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z	DEG	RPM
Change	631	24	607	83.8	9.4	4.9	117.9	2,014.6
Curveball	268	38	230	74.8	-3.2	-2.6	288.7	764.9
Fastball	1837	328	1509	90.4	8.3	9.0	137.5	2,516.1
Slider	308	122	186	81.4	-0.5	1.5	196.2	545.5

Gorzelanny will throw a little harder (94) when he's working in relief. His slider and curve can be tough to split apart some times, and, as I mentioned above, he throws both a four-seam and a two-seam fastball, blended together here.



Notice the more over-the-top release point on the fastball.

All said, Gorzelanny is a little below average. Maybe a better emergency starter than Casey Fossum, but a slight step down from Grabow as a LOOGY. My main concern, or concerns, are his lack of command, a tendency to pitch up in the zone, and, along with that, a high fly-ball rate. Not my kind of pitcher, maybe more of a San Diego guy. Perhaps they have a lefty outfielder the Cubs can flip Gorzelanny for.

Notes on Mitch Atkins

Not a bad situation to have as a pitcher. Wake-up expecting to spend your day as an Iowa Cub, end up pitching with a 12-0 lead as a Chicago Cub.

Mitch Atkins got his first inning of big league play, and our first taste of PITCHf/x data on the rookie right-hander. Atkins worked a bit in the new Yankee Stadium in an exhibition game, but the Gameday data was not released. So, three-plus months later, we finally get a look.

We only get a grand total of eight pitches, so nothing much can be concluded, but at least we know this much:

• Four-seam fastball, ranged from 89 to 91 mph.
• Slider, thrown 83 to 85, with decent lateral movement but little sink. One had enough back-spin to look a little like cutter
• Curveball, just one thrown, at 74 mph.

I think I read Atkins has struggled throwing a sinker, but we'll see if he's got one, along with a change-up he's willing to throw to a major league hitter, if he sticks around long enough.

In terms of PITCHf/x profile, Atkins throws a slutterish slider similar to Randy Wells' and a fastball that is similar to Wells' four-seamer in terms of speed and movement.

Beimel, Grabow and Sherrill

Joe Beimel, John Grabow and George Sherrill have all been named as LOOGY candidates for the Cubs. With the non-waiver deadline approaching, B.J. Ryan needs to get his act together in AAA or else. His chances are dwindling. Casey Fossum is still hanging around in the Iowa rotation.

Beimel, Grabow and Sherrill would all be reasonable solutions for the Cubs current lefty shortage. Beimel lost some velocity at the end of 2008, which may have scared teams away from him. The Nationals picked him up, and he's down fairly well in terms of PITCHf/x derived stats. Grabow has the least movement on his breaking pitch, but sinks the ball nicely. His control is not great, though. Sherrill is a better known commodity, and may have a slight edge over the other two, but at a higher cost.

Here's what they throw

pitcher	cfx	MPH	x0	z0	PFX_X	PFX_Z
Joe Beimel	Change	80	2.4	6.1	8.2	5.8
Joe Beimel	Sinker	87	2.5	6.0	8.8	6.1
Joe Beimel	Fastball	89	2.2	6.1	5.1	9.0
Joe Beimel	Slurve	74	2.1	6.2	-4.7	-0.3

pitcher	cfx	MPH	x0	z0	PFX_X	PFX_Z
George Sherrill	Change	83	3.2	5.8	6.1	8.0
George Sherrill	Fastball	91	3.0	5.9	3.9	9.1
George Sherrill	Slurve	77	3.1	5.9	-5.9	-1.2

pitcher	cfx	MPH	x0	z0	PFX_X	PFX_Z
John Grabow	Change	84	2.5	6.1	10.9	2.3
John Grabow	Fastball	92	2.4	6.0	7.9	7.4
John Grabow	Slider	85	2.2	6.2	0.3	2.3

I included their release points, since I wanted to test a theory on finding arm slot. Starting with the spin movement, I draw the "Lentzner" line, but not through 0,0 as Matt does. Next, I take that line and overlay it with their release points. Let me know what you think.



Sherrill is listed at an even 6'0" and looks to work from the first base side of the rubber. His arm angle is actually mclose to Beimel's. Beimel is three inches taller and not as far out on the rubber as Sherrill. Grabow, the tallest at 6'3" (if you believe such numbers) has a similar release point to Beimel, but a lower arm slot. Or, so it appears.

A few things I've noticed when comparing the 2007-2009 stats (shown above) with the 2009 numbers:

Beimel

• more strikes
• a few less grounders
• less velocity
• less "rise"
• more off-speed stuff

Sherrill

• less velocity on the slurve
• but more movement
• overall about the same results

Grabow

• pretty much the same

Beimel's become more of a strike-thrower this year, and he'll miss the fewest bats. Sherrill is a good mix of stuff and deception, he gets the most called strikes of the group, by a long shot. But he's also a fly ball pitcher. Grabow is pretty much in the middle, and doesn't get more grounders than Beimel, roughly speaking, despite is lower arm slot and sinking action.

I'd take whichever will cost the team the least amount of money and consider risk factors like age, injury history and mechanics.

Rating the Staff by Deception

At Out of the Ivy I have a look at the Cubs "deception" rating through Friday's game. You can also check-out MLB's Top 20 and Bottom 20 at Beyond the Box Score.

No Hints at Lilly's Shoulder Problem

ESPN reports Ted Lilly is undergoing tests to determine the extent/cause of shoulder soreness. Kevin Hart will take Lilly's turn in the rotation.

Looking at the PITCHf/x data, I don't see anything that hints at a recent problem. Curveball movement has been in his normal range, and Lilly's fastball velocity has also been normal (faster, if anything). His velocity was stable in his latest outing, although it wasn't a long start.

Cubs vs Harang - Three things to Watch

For a while, I considered Aaron Harang to be be a very good pitcher. Now, I realize he's just good. I'm hoping the Cubs will beat up on him today, and here's what I'll be looking for...

1. More grounders, or else: Harang threw about eight sinkers last time out, and it's a pitch he usually uses sparingly (if at all). Against his fastballs, Harang yielded a ground ball rate of 41% in the limited sample of 2007 PITCHf/x data. In 2008 the fastball was a fly ball machine (just 29% grounders). To date, the fastball has yielded a GB rate 32% in 2009. Harang's HR/FB rate allowed on the heater has always been about average (despite pitching in Cincy's bandbox it hovers around 11%), but I think the wind will be out to left on a warm day - better keep the ball down.


2. An improved curveball, or not: the lefties in today's line-up will see a pitch that Harang has thrown for more and more strikes each of the last three years (38%, 47%, 56%). Oddly, as with all of Harang's pitches, it rarely misses bats (three-year whiff rate of 11%, which is just about where 2009 is, too). It's thrown to be taken (lots of called strikes, hitters actually take more than half of the curves that he throws for strikes). In 2009, Harang has benefited from poorly hit balls (SLGCON of .250) or luck (expected run value allowed is about two runs per 100 curveballs higher than actual run value allowed)


3. Velocity, or lack thereof: Harang's speed varies, anywhere from the low 80s to the mid/upper 90s. Yes, he had some injury problems, but, like Carlos Zambrano, Harang does like to take something off the fastball on occasion. Expect Harang to sit around 92 and top out under 95. Don't be surprised if he throws a few around 87, though.

Cubs v Phillies: Rodrigo Lopez Preview

Twice a 15-game winner for the Orioles, and once an 18-game loser, Rodrigo Lopez has returned to the majors in 2009 as a starter for the Phillies. His job may not last long, if Pedro Martinez gets healthy and stretched out quickly. For now, he's in the Phillies rotation and set to make his third start of the season against the Cubs on Monday.

Lopez throws four pitches, a four-seam fastball (F4), a two-seam fastball (more tail than sink, F2), a slider (SL) and a change-up (CH).

In the spin movement graph, I've included dots for the league average for three of his pitches.



Lopez' slider has a decent amount of movement, sinking more than the average righty's slider. It is a little slurvey in that regard. He doesn't get too much movement on his fastballs, but he throws the two-seamer more often, maximizing what movement his does get.



Flight paths show almost no vertical difference between the fastballs (1st base view).



With just two starts in 2009 and a single outing from 2007, this next set of graphs will be a bit noisy.



Lopez throws a lot of strikes (except with the four-seam fastball) and seems to get a lot of called strikes. The whiff rate on the change-up is simply awful, that's not even good for a fastball. His best pitch for missing bats, the slider, is not very tough, relative to other sliders.

cfx	#	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch
CH	31	0.548	0.059	1.3	0.677	0.300	0.333
F2	97	0.454	0.046	1.0	0.639	0.286	0.452
F4	59	0.322	0.105	2.9	0.458	0.125	0.444
SL	38	0.421	0.250	1.4	0.579	0.250	0.455

Lopez looks like he keys in on pounding the zone and inducing contact. On balls in play he's had decent results, not a lot of luck (good or bad). He has avoided the long ball, which is a bit of good fortune, but we're just talking about 18 or so innings of work.

cfx	#	nkSLG	GB%	FB%	LD%	HRFB%	IFFB%	HRLD%
CH	31	0.273	64%	18%	18%	0%	50%	0%
F2	97	0.273	64%	32%	5%	0%	43%	0%
F4	59	0.500	50%	13%	38%	0%	0%	0%
SL	38	0.500	40%	50%	10%	0%	20%	0%

No pop-ups on the four-seam fastball, not very impressive. It sticks out as his worst pitch. Run values, both "actual" (based on batted ball results; single, double etc) and "expected" (based on batted ball types, grounder, line drive etc) aren't surprising and, since he hasn't gotten too lucky or unlucky, they don't differ very much. That's also a factor of being a strike thrower.

cfx	#	rv100a	rv100e
CH	31	-3.03	-1.26
F2	97	-3.69	-3.13
F4	59	1.59	1.29
SL	38	-1.01	-1.35

Good two-seamer, so-so slider and change-up, poor fastball. Lopez does seem to be able to put it all together, but he doesn't look like a pitcher that can afford to fall behind.

Nationals Friday Starter Craig Stammen

The Cubs will face Washington rookie Craig Stammen on Friday night. I looked at him after his debut in May, and he was quite unexciting. Nothing has changed, although I'm no longer sure he throws a sinker (probably just a four-seam fastball, but I'm using the generic FA label for all of his heaters).

Type	#	vs LHH	vs RHH	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z	DEG	RPM
CH	88	60	28	82.6	-5.9	7.3	219.5	1,757.4
CU	92	42	50	79.3	1.5	-4.3	85.8	857.8
FA	535	320	215	90.0	-6.1	8.5	215.9	2,123.3
SL	25	3	22	82.5	-0.1	1.5	178.8	348.5

The fastball/change-up combo looks pretty decent (see the flight paths below). Stammen's curveball has an unusually low spin rate, I'm not sure what to make of that, if anything.





Stammen's stuff is quite average, not a lot of grounders, not a lot of whiffs, not a lot of hard hit balls, though. He might be getting lucky in that regard, time will tell.

Jeff Stevens f/x

Part of the Mark DeRosa deal, Jeff Stevens made his Cubs debut shortly before the All Star break. Stevens was covered in the latest edition of New Arms of the Week at Beyond the Box Score.

Kevin Hart Refresher

Kevin Hart takes a turn in the Cubs rotation, facing the Braves in a rubber game at Wrigley Field. With a day off Thursday, the Cubs won't need Hart again in the Cardinals series leading up to the All Star Break.

Hart made his name in the Fall of 2007, but struggled in 2008 and spent most of the season in Iowa. He had just been sent back to Iowa, after a brief stint in the Chicago bullpen, but was recalled when Ryan Dempster broke his toe on the dugout rail.

Dempster's injury will cost him about 6 or 7 starts, so someone will be filling in his spot after the break. Hart has a change to state his case for the job today.

Kevin throws a handful of pitches, although the change-ups are rare, possibly splitters or data errors. He's basically sinker/slider against lefties, with curves and four-seam fastballs bumped up in the mix against righties.



From left to right, this table covers pitch type; # number thrown; mph average speed 55 feet from home plate; rv100e runs allowed against average per 100 pitches based on batted ball type (grounder, liner etc.); rv100a same stat but for actual runs expected from hits and outs; IWZ rate of pitches thrown in a two-foot wide strike zone; Swing swing rate on all pitches; Whiff misses per swings; Chase swing rate on pitches out of the wide zone; Watch take rate (inverse of swings) on pitches in the wide zone; SLGCON slugging rate on balls in play; GB% ground balls per balls in play.

pitch	#	MPH	rv100e	rv100a	IWZ	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch	SLGCON	GB%
Change	10	88.0	-0.941	-8.774	0.400	0.600	0.333	0.333	0.000	0.000	67%
Curveball	112	79.9	-0.910	-2.278	0.500	0.314	0.460	0.288	0.644	0.250	38%
Sinker	143	93.0	0.681	2.870	0.409	0.430	0.094	0.273	0.344	0.567	73%
Fastball	210	93.3	1.183	1.901	0.519	0.477	0.136	0.231	0.286	0.646	50%
Slider	282	87.4	-0.088	0.413	0.451	0.519	0.362	0.348	0.265	0.583	50%

Hart throws everything hard, even the slider. I don't think it's a cutter, lacks backspin, but it's thrown as fast as one. The ground ball rate on the sinker is very nice, and he appears to be a bit unlucky on balls in play (rv100e-rv100a is a decent estimate of luck). His fastball isn't very good, too straight perhaps. He misses a lot of bats with the curveball and slider, and the curveball is his most effective pitch.

Flight Paths



Pitch Locations

The light, white lines indicate reference points for the strike zone. Click to enlarge (applies to all images in this post, and most posts).







I can't imagine the middle-in fastballs do him much good, but the ones just up and out of the zone are probably OK. Hopefully those groups overlap frequently .... I need to create a heat map .... or learn how to first.

Roster Moves

Ryan Freel, who was DFA'd, was traded to Kansas City for a player to be named. The Cubs are also sending some cash to cover some portion of Freel's remaining 2009 salary.

According to comments at ACB, David Patton has been disabled, while Sam Fuld and Kevin Hart have been optioned to Iowa. This makes room for Angel Guzman, Aramis Ramirez and Reed Johnson, who are all being activated from the DL today.

Casey Fossum - the Newest Iowa Cub

The Cubs signed lefty Casey Fossum and put him in Iowa. I don't know the specifics of the deal, but it seems like a wise move, given Neal Cotts' season-ending surgery.

If Fossum is called-up by the Cubs, it will be his sixth major league uniform, starting with Boston, a year in Arizona, three in Tampa and then 2008 with the Tigers. Fossum started 2009 as a Met, but got the boot after three appearances. The Yankees scooped him up in May, stuck him in Scranton (per MLBTR). Fossum opted out of his contract with the Yankees, so he clearly feels like he'll get a better shot in Chicago.

Fossum, originally from New Jersey (have to mention the Garden State), is now 31 and hasn't made a start in the major leagues since May 29, 2007, but he has worked in the rotation for Scranton and Buffalo in the International League, as he has throughout his minor league career.

We'll see what he does in Iowa, but we have a good pile of pitches in PITCHf/x for Fossum, although he's a little tough to figure out. Take a grain of salt, but he's primarily sinker/fastball/slider and two curves (slower and slower). I may have found a couple changes and splitters, too. Low arm slot, blah velocity.

Fossum's fastballs run in the 87-90 range, with his four-seamer averaging 89.0 since 2007. The slider averages just under 84 (it's a bit of a slutter) and the curve can come in anywhere from 50 to 75.

Here's an oldie but a goodie, the aggregate spin movement plot with speed as the size/label.



Fossum's pitches are all very average based on actual and expected run values. His best his probably that curve (or curves) and maybe the slider. He's a generic LOOGY, which can be a pretty useful piece with virtually no cost if he just sits in the minors, and nominal costs even if he makes the team for the second half.

Quick f/x on Virgil Vazquez

Vazquez is back in the majors, making his second start since a couple brief stints in 2007 as a Tiger. We have some PITCHf/x data to compare Vazquez' one start as a Pirate to his partial PITCHf/x data as a Tiger (only one game of five is missing, actually).

Vazquez is a 6'3" righty, played NCAA for UCSB, and is the replacement for the supposedly self-demoted Ian Snell.

Comparing Vazquez' speed (mph) and movement (pfx, lateral in inches; pfz, vertical), it appears he may have lost a little bit of speed. The fastball (which includes a mix of two- and four-seamers) compared to the secondary pitches tells a better story.

2007      mph    pfx   pfz
Change    83.8  -8.1   5.6
Curve     74.4   4.8  -3.6
Fastball  92.0  -6.8  10.8
Cutter    87.2   0.3   6.3

2009      mph    pfx   pfz
Change    80.9  -4.1   4.2
Curve     75.1   7.7  -5.3
Fastball  90.9  -3.7   9.6
Cutter    86.6   3.7   4.9

2007      mph    pfx   pfz
FA-CU     18.6  12.9  14.4
FA-CH      8.2   1.3   5.2
FA-FC      4.8   7.1   4.5

2009      mph    pfx   pfz
FA-CU     15.8  11.8  14.9
FA-CH     10.0   0.4   5.4
FA-FC      4.3   7.4   4.7

The change is still a dropper more than a tailer (relatively speaking). His best pitch is the fastball (so far), but it's nothing special. The change, curve and cutter have had sub-par results in his limited work in the majors.