Cubs Look to Build on One Game Win Streak

The Cubs could actually extend their winning streak to two games. Ryan Dempster will face Bobby Parnell. Parnell has worked more in relief in the majors, throws hard and only throws two pitches with any regularity.

Parnell's mid-90's fastball, which has touched 100, is complemented by a slider and the occasional change-up. Most people call it a sinker, but it looks more like a four-seamer to me. Hard to tell, there are plenty of ways to grip a pitch. In any case, I don't find two different fastballs (e.g. four- and two-seam), so I'm going with a generic Fastball label.

First up, pitch mix. As you can see, now difference whether Parnell is working out of the bullpen or starting the game.



Pitch quality (run value above average - negative is better for pitchers - per 100 pitches based on balls/strikes and batted ball types (LD/GB/PU/FB) show an average looking fastball (largest sample, too) and what is probably a sub-par change-up, and a slider that looks better out of the bullpen.


Before moving on to pitch outcomes, and getting under the hood of the rv100E, you can see Parnell throws hard no matter what, but, as you'd expect, shows more velocity as a reliever.



In the above speed graph, you should also note the average gap between fastball and change-up (which can be misleading) appears to be almost 2 mph smaller when starting. That could be an artefact of fatigue, or random variation in pitch selection that isn't spread out over parks with "hot" PITCHf/x speed readings or games where Parnell was a tick faster/slower etc.

Moving on, the ground ball rates are pretty good for Parnell. The better rv100E for the starts is in part explained by the big gap in ground ball rate on the slider when pitching in relief. That's probably not a "real" thing, but random noise. But it does describe what's happened, even if it isn't something I'd say is meaningful or predictive.



Again a difference in the slider, this time with whiff rate. Trading grounders for missed bats when starting, Bobby?


I suspect the ground ball rate is also behind the slider's gap in SLGCON.


So, very small samples on the secondary pitches. The slider looks alright, but the fastball, while thrown with some mustard on it, ends up being about average.

What's all this look like?







Sorry, that green bubble should be black.

Overall, his 2009 numbers compared to league averages for 2009:

Whiff
Parnell 2009: .187
MLB 2009: .193


In Wide Strike Zone
.500
.526

SLGCON
.474
.527

GB%
47.4
43.5

rv100E
-.019
.030

Yes, the rv100E should be 0 for the league, but my estimates of the run environment need to be updated. So, it wasn't fair to say he's not above average in any way. He does get more ground balls, which helps off-set his sub-par control.


BTW, watch this interview with Big Z so you know what he said, and how he said it, as you listen to the media twist his words around over the next few days.

Graphing Gregg's Cutter

Kevin Gregg started throwing a cutter on August 15. Since that appearance, he hadn't thrown a single splitter. Until the final game against the Nationals on August 27. Here's a ginormous picture containing four graphs. Spin movement along with three views of the pitch flights.

Pitches, not just the cutter - you'll get his sliders and fastballs and that one splitter. Plus one sinker. Take the split/sink flights with a grain of salt - that's just one pitch while the other three are aggregated. The spin movement is accurate and not misleading.

Kevin Gregg - Aug 15 - 27, 2009

click to enlarge

Cubs Start Home Winning Streak by Getting Blown Out by the Nationals

Not exactly how Lou hoped things would go. Big Z returned, racked up 95 pitches in under five innings, and the bullpen (recently augmented by Tom Gorzelanny) didn't fare any better. In the end, it was 15-6 Washington. Eegads. So much for getting back on track in the Friendly Confines. Josh Willingham (five runs, six driven in on four hits, including two home runs) sure found it friendly.

Piniella went through five relievers, starting with Aaron Heilman, who let in all three inherited runners on one swing. Sean Marshall was next, survived the sixth but couldn't escape the seventh without the help of Angel Guzman.

Next up was Gorzelanny, taking the ball in the eighth. With Zambrano off the DL, Gorz was pushed to the pen while Esmailin Caridad was optioned back to Iowa. Keving Gregg, demoted within the bullpen this past week, worked the ninth inning. Not nice, a taste of honey is worse than none at all.

Their final lines (from cubs.com):

pitcher      IP   H   R  ER  BB  K  HR
Zambrano    4.1   7   8   8   3  4   1
Heilman     0.2   1   1   1   0  1   1
Marshall    1.1   3   3   3   1  2   0
Guzman      0.2   1   0   0   0  0   0
Gorzelanny  1.0   2   3   3   1  1   1
Gregg       1.0   0   0   0   1  0   0
Total       9.0  14  15  15   6  8   3

Yea, not good.

As I noted on twitter a few days ago, Gregg has ditched the splitter in favor of a cutter. His splitter is not a very good pitch, yielding a run value slightly in favor of the hitters, so we'll see if the cutter is any better. Gregg also threw a two-seam fastball (or sinker), which, oddly, could be his most effective pitch.

Zambrano came out throwing the ball hard, but his velocity declined each inning.



Hopefully Rich Harden can beat the freshly inked Livan Hernandez. J.D. Martin and end this hideous run. Even if for a day. Here's more on Martin, a rookie.

Nationals Rookie J.D Martin in PITCHf/x

Update Martin has been bumped in favor of the newly signed Livan Hernandez.

J.D. Martin is a rookie starter for the Washington Nationals. He'll pitch the middle game of a three-game set at Wrigley Field on Wednesday. Here's a preview - in words, numbers and pictures.

• Throws strikes with some pitches
  
  
  
  • Pounds the zone with fastballs
  
  
  • Slider/slutter thrown in the zone most of the time
  
  
  • Change and curve nowhere near it
  
  
  
  


• Doesn't miss bats
  
  
  
  • both fastballs around .05
  
  
  • curve best at .27
  
  
  • slider poor at .11
  
  
  
  


• Plenty of called strikes
  
  
  
  • 1.6 B:CS
  
  
  • .443 watch rate (takes in zone)
  
  
  
  


• Can be hit hard regularly
  
  
  
  • .585 SLGCON is pretty high
  
  
  • Change and curve are hammered, tons of line drives
  
  
  • 26% LD rate, 40% GB overall
  
  
  • been giving up home runs on the fastballs
  
  
  
  

	#	MPH
Change	23	82
Curve	51	73
Sinker	54	88
Fastball	275	88
Slider	151	86

speed is at 55 feet from the back of home plate

	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch
Change	4.5	0.261	0.471	0.333
Curve	3.1	0.333	0.382	0.471
Sinker	1.1	0.630	0.100	0.441
Fastball	1.2	0.618	0.191	0.488
Slider	2.4	0.530	0.282	0.350

Balls to Called Strikes, In 2 ft Wide Zone, Swings out of zone, Takes in the zone

	Swing	Whiff
Change	0.522	0.167
Curve	0.431	0.273
Sinker	0.370	0.050
Fastball	0.386	0.057
Slider	0.470	0.113

Swings per pitch, misses per swing

	SLGCON	GB%	FB%	PU%	LD%
Change	0.833	17%	33%	0%	50%
Curve	0.889	44%	11%	0%	44%
Sinker	0.539	54%	15%	15%	15%
Fastball	0.655	31%	33%	13%	24%
Slider	0.400	50%	13%	13%	25%

Slugging rate on all balls in play (including HR), grounders, flies, pops and liners

	rv100	rv100E
Change	6.13	5.94
Curve	4.47	1.48
Sinker	0.24	-1.16
Fastball	0.97	0.56
Slider	-0.42	0.87

linear weight derived run value against average pitch per 100 pitches; negative is good for pitchers; rv100E uses batted ball types instead of singles, outs, doubles etc.


Spin movement, in inches, catcher's view (measures "break" compared to a ball without spin, under the influence of gravity alone)



Speed x Spin axis



Bonus words: the slider is a mix of cutters, slutters and sliders.

Flight Paths

Cubs Announce 2009 Arizona Fall Leaguers

If you've follow this blog for more than this season, you already know I keep an eye on the Arizona Fall League. The Winter ball in Latin America is fun, too. That will wait.

With play picking up in October, the Cubs have selected the players they'll contribute to the Mesa Solar Sox.

Andrew Cashner - rhp
Wellington Castillo -c
Starlin Castro -ss
John Gaub - lhp
Blake Parker - rhp
James Russell - lhp
Josh Vitters - 3b

That's two number one picks, some pitching prospects , a catcher who I suspect will be on the taxi squad and the youngest player in the 2009 AFL, Castro.

Nats in Town, Mock Gets Second Shot at Cubs

Garrett Mock got his first start of 2009 against the Cubs. That July outing lasted less than four innings. Since then, he's been better, but not spectacular, and has stuck in the Washington rotation.

Mock will face the Cubs and the freshly re-activated Carlos Zambrano. The Cubs have played well at home, but nothing is for certain with the 2009 North Siders.

Mock made a few relief appearances early in the season, was sent down and recalled for the July 19 game. After that brief thrashing, his ERA stood at 7.71. It's down to 5.10, but he's only completed six innings twice in seven starts since his call-up. His last three starts have seen his highest strikeout totals, and both of those "long" outings.

Mock made some starts in 2008. Tracking his pitch selections for non-relief appearances, there seems to be a slight trend since last season.



Lately, less sinkers and curveballs, more fastballs and change-ups. Oh, right, about his stuff...

pitch	#	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z	DEG	RPM
Change-up	182	81	-6	3	246	1310
Curveball	187	77	8	-8	44	1874
Sinker	473	92	-7	5	236	1823
Fastball	453	92	-2	9	192	1852
Cutter	6	91	2	6	164	1234
Slider	210	82	5	-1	77	1027

Not sure of those are real cutters, or just strange fastballs/data errors. I'm pretty much ignoring them, just a half-dozen anyway.

Mock has a couple good ways to induce a ground ball, neither being the sinker. The sinker also seems prone to yield line drives.



I like that change-up, good grounder and pop-up rates but little in between says "not easy to square-up". It also sports a .443 whiff rate. OK, I can see why Mock may be throwing it more.

It is his best pitch, using run values. Compared to the average pitch, Mock's change-up saves about two runs per 100 times thrown. That's based on either linear weights from batted ball outcomes (singles, outs etc) - rv100 - or based on distributed batted ball outcomes derived by batted ball type (liner, fly etc.) - rv100E.



Well, the sinker is no peach, so I can see why he's ditching it. Clearly, he's using linear weights (cough). He may be a little unlucky with it, and not a lot of pitchers manage a sinker that's on the good (negative) side of zero.

The two spots where rv100 and rv100E disagree most are on the fastball and the slider. If you think of the slider for right-handed opponents as you'd think of his change-up against lefties. rv100E likes both pitches, but rv100 is lukewarm on the slider. And sliders usually tally a negative (good) rv100.

As far as Mock's fastball is concerned, we're looking at another gap of about two runs per 100 pitches. rv100 hates the heater, rv100E thinks it's OK. It seems rv100E is forgiving his elevated HR/FB rate, by design, and liking his good line drive rate. Combined, it takes the sting out of the fastball's .708 SLGCON.

The difference in the slider is harder to explain/rationalize. Both measures use the same values for non-batted balls, and he hasn't allowed any home runs against it. His batted ball profile against the slider is fairly mundane (37% GB, 14% LD, 34% FB, 14% PU). Maybe he really has been unlucky on balls in play off the slider.

The SLGCON against Mock's slider is .600, which isn't horrific. It is higher than average by about .070. Sliders should be harder to hit than an average pitch, too. It's whiff rate is .361, about average for breaking stuff.

So, his fastball may be sub-par and his slider average. The change-up seems very good, anyway I look at it. And the sinker and curveball aren't good pieces to have, even if they haven't gotten the job done or fallen out of favor.

Cubs Knuckle Under, I-Cubs May be Better to Watch

Charlie Haeger had yet another solid start for Los Angeles, this time shutting down the Cubs with a fluttering knuckleball and a few 84 mph fastballs. The Cubs only had one line drive off of Haeger, who threw seven shut-out innings. The 2009 version of Haeger may turn out to be a legitimate improvement from the version cut loose by the White Sox and the Padres.

Cubs' starter Ted Lilly wasn't perfect, but he was plenty good. Only throwing six curveballs, Lilly was even more of a fly ball pitcher than usual, and two solo home runs were all the Dodgers needed to give Haeger, Jonathan Broxton (in a high leverage set-up role) and George Sherrill.

Out in Des Moines, James Russell and the I-Cubs are facing Florida's Triple-A affiliate, the New Orleans Zephyrs. Rick Vandenhurk, recently demoted, faces Iowa and Russell. Russell was a 14th round pick in 2007 out of UT-Austin. Just 23 years old, he's already moved up to the Pacific Coast League. He's a 6'4" lefty who looks to have gone from full-time starter to swingman in 2009. You can watch the game online.

Charlie Haeger and His Knuckeball to Confound Cubs

As if the Cubs haven't had enough problems swinging the bats, now they've got to slow them down to deal with knuckleballer Charlie Haeger. Saturday's matinee features Ted Lilly against Haeger in Chavez Ravine, the third of a four game set against the Dodgers.

Haeger was drafted out of High School by the White Sox in 2001. After making no progress early on, Haeger was out of baseball for the 2003 season. Apparently, efforts to convert himself into a pro golfer got mixed up and he ended up learning how to throw a knuckleball instead.

Haeger made it to the majors in 2006, and has been up and down since as a member of the White Sox, Padres and Dodgers. He's had limited success outside of the minor leagues, and Saturday's start will be the third of his big league career.

Haeger PITCHf/x in Pictures

The pie chart shows Haeger's pitch mix (less than 300 pitches recorded by PITCHf/x) and, in the legend the speed of each pitch. The others are spin movement (inches, catcher's view), spin axis (degrees) by speed (mph), plate location (feet, catcher's view). Click to enlarge.









Bottom Line(s)

Rolling all of Haeger's pitches into one, the following line is essentially a reflection of the knuckleball's outcomes. With the three secondary pitches included, it's 292 total pitches with 239 knuckeballs.

Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch
0.486	0.169	0.252	0.294

Swing rate is swings/pitchers, Whiff is misses/swing, Chase is swing rate but only for pitches out of the zone (zone is 2 feet wide, hence IWZ for in wide zone below), Watch is takes on pitches in the zone (inverse of swings).

B:CS	IWZ
2.3	0.524

That's Ball to Called Strike ratio and In Wide Zone rate (also see above).

rv100E	rv100
0.95	1.62

Run values (based on linear weights) similar to what you see on Fangraphs. Big difference - negative numbers are good for pitchers, so Haeger's stuff (mostly his knuckleball) are "worth" more runs per 100 pitches thrown than league average - for the opposition.

rv100E is based on batted ball type (line drive to pop-up) while rv100 is based on batted ball outcome (singles to homers). Balls and strikes are also included in both rates so the differences are only in the batted ball outcomes. It's a limited data set, but you can claim that Haeger has been below average, but unlucky on balls in play.

SLGCON	GB%	FB%	PU%	LD%	HRBIA%
0.548	45%	27%	8%	19%	12%

More on batted ball results. HRBIA is home runs divided by all balls in air (i.e. everything in play except grounders). Haeger is well above average here, 7% is about normal.

Especially when you consider most of this data is from relief appearances (only one start, 8/17/2009, is covered by PITCHf/x), Haeger is easier to hit than the average pitcher. Smells like replacement level talent.

Stumbling Cubs Face Rookie Mat Latos

With Rich Harden on the mound, the Cubs will try and snap-out of their funk against Padres rookie Mat Latos. Latos is a tall right-hander with some stellar heat on his fastball.

• Not a ground ball pitcher (34% GB per BIP)
• Change-up and sinker are least used, and least succesful
• Fastball averages over 95 and is tough to hit well (12% pop-ups and 18% line drives)
• Slider is his "ground ball" pitch, has an absurd .516 whiff rate and an equally crazy .644 watch rate
  • Umps may not be calling strikes on his breaking ball, that high watch rate still only buys him a 3.1:1 B:CS ratio
• He's tall, comes over-the-top with a nice downward plane
• Has a few looks to the slider

I'm not sure what kind of change-up he's throwing. He looks a little Harden-esque (check out the spin movement graph here), doesn't he? The slider and change are usually between 80-85, but he'll sneak above or below that range on occasion.

While his fastball and slider are the best of Latos' arsenal, he may be the beneficiary of some good luck on balls in play against both of those.

rv100 is based on actual batted ball outcomes (single, double etc) and rv100e is based on batted ball type (liner, fly etc). 0 is average, by definition, with negative numbers being better for the pitcher. rv100 means run value (defined by linear weights) per 100 pitches. He hasn't even thrown 600 total pitches in the majors, so take 'em with a grain of salt.

pitch          rv100   rv100e
change          4.91   -0.36
two-seam FB     3.85    6.76
four-seam FB   -2.04   -0.75
slider         -1.17   -0.57

He's thrown, in order shown above, 70, 22, 336 and 101 of each pitch. Whatever the numbers are showing, his two favorite pitches look quite good.

Cubs Go For Sweep Against Bucs and Ohlendorf

Beating up on the second division is a nice way to recover form a Philly thumping. The Cubs will look to make it three in a row as Rich Harden faces Ross Ohlendorf.

Ohlendorf throws both a two- and four-seam fastball, but I'm going to present them as a single pitch for this quick preview. He also throws a slider and a change-up, and mixed in a handful of curveballs early in 2009, but not since.

Fastball: 93 mph
Change-up: 83
Slider: 82
Curveball: 73



Wade thru his numbers, HR/BIA is HR per "balls in air". For rv100, negative is good for pitchers ...

Type	#	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	SLGON	GB%	FB%	PU%	LD%	HR/BIA%	rv100
Change	290	0.448	0.277	3.3	0.483	0.253	0.336	0.772	37%	39%	5%	19%	11%	2.57
Fastball	1953	0.480	0.074	2.1	0.581	0.274	0.356	0.575	44%	29%	8%	20%	8%	1.12
Slider	735	0.422	0.436	3.1	0.403	0.301	0.395	0.484	48%	24%	11%	16%	9%	-0.75

LHH	#	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	SLGCON	GB%	FB%	PU%	LD%	HR/BIA%	rv100
Change	252	0.444	0.259	3.1	0.472	0.271	0.353	0.765	37%	37%	6%	20%	9%	2.68
Fastball	996	0.446	0.072	2.1	0.564	0.219	0.363	0.677	39%	32%	7%	22%	8%	2.23
Slider	218	0.463	0.347	5.8	0.381	0.289	0.253	0.414	41%	24%	28%	7%	0%	-1.21

RHH	#	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	SLGCON	GB%	FB%	PU%	LD%	HR/BIA%	rv100
Change	38	0.474	0.389	5.7	0.553	0.118	0.238	0.833	33%	50%	0%	17%	25%	1.87
Fastball	957	0.515	0.075	2.1	0.598	0.335	0.350	0.474	49%	25%	9%	17%	8%	-0.02
Slider	517	0.404	0.479	2.6	0.412	0.306	0.451	0.516	52%	24%	3%	21%	13%	-0.56

vs	#	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	SLGCON	GB%	FB%	PU%	LD%	HR/BIA%	rv100
LHH	1469	0.447	0.145	2.8	0.520	0.238	0.344	0.652	39%	32%	10%	19%	7%	1.80
RHH	1514	0.476	0.221	2.4	0.533	0.319	0.381	0.497	49%	25%	7%	19%	11%	-0.17
	2983	0.462	0.174	2.5	0.527	0.279	0.362	0.579	44%	29%	8%	19%	9%	0.80

Hopefully Lou will send a bunch of lefties out to face Ohlendorf, and Harden will continue his run of good starts.

Comparing The Cubs Young Arms - Out of the Ivy

PITCHf/x and more on six Cubs rookies.

Comparing The Cubs Young Arms - Out of the Ivy

Cubs and Jason Dubois Split - Again

According to Adam Rubin, the Mets acquired Jason Dubois from the Cubs.

The Des Moines Register talked to Dubois. As I write this, he is about one hour into his drive to the new gig in Buffalo. Can't someone buy this guy a plane ticket?

Anyway, the article ends with some ambiguity:

The Mets will be Dubois' fifth organization. His wife is expecting the couple's first child in October.

"I'm pretty excited," Dubois said.

The Cubs will receive a player to be named later.

Carlos, Victor. Whatever

Note the name of the scratched pitcher

h/t pfd @ acb

Welcome to the North Side, Tom Gorzelanny

I have some new stuff on Tom Gorzelanny at Out of the Ivy. I cover his pitch breakdowns for his Cubs debut, and compare his stuff (and results) to his dark days with the Bucs.

The Cubs Debut of Tom Gorzelanny - Out of the Ivy

Randy Wells Profile

Just posted at Hardball Times, a look at Randy Wells.

Geo and The Cash

For those of you eagerly awaiting Geovany Soto's return and/or the promotion of Andrew Cashner, well, have I got a link for you.

The Tennessee Smokies' battery of catcher Geovany Soto and pitcher Andrew Cashner could be reunited at Wrigley Field in the near future.

Oh really? Go on ...

"I feel really good," Soto said. "I didn't feel it (muscle) at all doing anything - throwing, blocking, hitting. That's a good sign."

Thanks for that parenthetical, Mr. Editor, lest my imagination run wild.

"If there are no problems, I meet the team Thursday," Soto said.

Lou's thinking sooner, check your voice mail.

Cashner (2-1) was limited to 88 pitches. The hard-throwing right-hander limited the Mudcats (14-24) to a pair of doubles and an unearned run. The Chicago Cubs' first-round draft pick - 19th overall - last year walked one.

Soto caught Cashner in spring training until the pitcher suffered an injury. He was impressed with Cashner's development.

"He's commanding his fastball," Soto said. "He is learning to use his fastball more."

Cashner's heater was clocked in the mid-90s.

"His breaking pitch was there," Soto said. "All he needs to do is trust his stuff."

I trust it already. We need help up here!

Burke Badenhop Preview

The Cubs will try and bounce back Saturday against sinker throwing righty Burke Badenhop. Badenhop will be starting for the just the second time in 2009 for the Marlins. His last start was a five inning win against the Phillies, in May. I don't think this guy is stretched out all the way, but he has put in a few multiple inning relief appearances in July.

Badenhop was drafted by the Tigers out of Bowling Green and broke into the Majors last year for Florida. He's 6'5" tall, a native of Atlanta and has never pitched out of the bullpen in the minor leagues. He seems to have adapted will in 2009, and is even having better success against lefties, reversing his platoon split from 2008 (for whatever that's worth).

Badenhop is a four-pitch pitcher. His main pitch is a two-seam sinker (F2) which is complemented by the occasional four-seam fastball (F4), a change-up (CH) and a sweeping slider (SL).

Both fastballs average around 89 mph, the change down at 82 (good enough gap) and the slider 79. His pitch mix is dominated by the sinker, but he doesn't give the same look, otherwise, against lefties and righties.



The breaking ball doesn't sink much, "rising" against gravity two inches more than an average slider, but breaking across the plate an extra four or five inches. It's possibly a slurvey slider, but he throws at a low enough arm angle that the spin creates a more sweeping, and less sinking, path.







Wandering through Badenhop's pitch data and results, I noticed a couple things about him.

Badenhop uses his sinker against lefties a lot, but not with the same success he has against righties. He wisely avoids using the slider against lefties, as they kill it, but has his best success with the fastball and change-up.

Against lefties, Badenhop's fastball is the one he's most likely to throw in the zone, and it's his best fly ball pitch. His change-up is most effective against lefties in terms of whiff rate and ground outs.

Against righties, the sinker Badenhop throws does very well. He throws it for strikes and gets a ton of ground balls (> 70%). His slider is also very effective against righties, but has just a 10% ground ball rate (it jumps to 50% in its limited use against lefties). It's not just an extreme fly ball pitch for Badenhop against righties, it's also his best at missing bats.