Ted Lilly's Peak Velocity

Ted Lilly lacked velocity in what is likely his last start of 2009. I'm not sure it's cause for concern. Looking at the three fastest four-seamers Ted threw in each start in PITCHf/x (back to 2007), we can see Lilly's done this before.


click to enlarge

I have to admit, his peak velocity does look a to be down, or at least erratic, late in 2009.

Here's a tab delimited text file containing the dates and speeds (including the reference # in the axis). Ted Lilly Peak Velocity

Is Lou Expecting Too Much From Zambrano?

ACB raises a good question about Big Z's start last night:

from Gordon Whittenmeyer:

"This is somewhat what you expect from him on a consistent basis," said manager Lou Piniella after his team staved off division elimination for one more day .... "This is what this guy's capable of. We just want to see it more often."

.... No wonder Cubs fans expect too much out of the players. How on earth can you expect Zambrano to pitch as well as he did last night on a consistent basis? Lou has been around this game decades and he actually just said that they expect this from him on a consistent basis. So, Lou expects Zambrano to consistently go out there and throw 9 innings, allow 2 hits, no runs, walk only 1 and strikeout 8?

I just don't think, if you asked a follow-up, that Lou would take it so far. Actually, although Lou's kinda wrong, Lou is kinda right.

Huh?

What if I told you that last night's start was just in the top 17% of Z's starts since May 2007? What if I told you it was the best, thanks to some luck?

Top 4 by rv100, which is based on batted ball outcomes (hits/xbh/outs) directly, which includes last night (#1) and the no-no (#4)

2009-09-25     -6.58
2008-07-09     -6.33
2007-08-19     -6.00
2008-09-14     -5.68

Top 12 by rv100E, which uses batted ball type (line drive etc) and extrapolates expected hits/outs from there, which includes last night (12) and the no-no (4).

2007-06-22     -3.26
2007-08-19     -3.24
2008-07-04     -2.42
2008-09-14     -2.41
2009-06-10     -2.13
2008-07-09     -1.97
2008-07-29     -1.91
2007-07-29     -1.73
2009-09-04     -1.71
2007-09-28     -1.70
2008-04-06     -1.64
2009-09-25     -1.57

So, is it unreasonable to expect Carlos to pitch that way consistently? Maybe a little bit, but not egregiously. It's a high bar, but he can reach it. It just doesn't mean two hit shutouts every time. Not to me at least.

The no-hitter vs. the two-hitter

Ground ball %: 75% to 52%, in favor of the no-hitter
Fly ball %: 13% to 33%, again the no-hitter wins
Pop up %: 6% to 0, no-hitter had more grounders and more pop-ups
Line drive %: 6% to 14%, more hard hit balls in the two-hitter
In wide zone rate: .546 to .490, more strikes
Whiff rate: .245 to .298, better in the two-hitter, a first
Swing rate: .446 to .480, hmmm less strikes but more swings
Chase rate: .280 to .380, which makes sense given the IWZ/Swing/Whiff
Watch rate: tied at .417

Zambrano pitched very well against the Giants. The aggressive swinging, and a little bit of luck and help from the defense, took care of the rest.

How strong was he? (update)

Looking a the Tim Lincecum end of things, I also found Big Z was extra strong last night. Read it at Beyond the Box Score.

Cubs Release Seven Minor Leaguers

This week's run-down of minor league transactions, thanks to Baseball America's Matt Eddy

Chicago Cubs
Released: RHP Ezequiel Astacio, LHP Ryan Sontag, C Juan Medina, 2B Jose Made, OF Glenn Cook, OF Jericho Jones, OF Jonathan Wyatt

Eddy provides a note on Cook:

A 46th-rounder this year from Miami, Cook is notable because he’s (apparently) the first ’09 draft pick to hit the release wire.

I'll try and hit the rest ...

Astacio, with the unfortunate nickname "Scarface" is a journeyman who last saw time in the Majors as an Astro in 2006. The Cubs purchased his contract from the San Angelo Colts.

Sontag converted from outfield to pitcher late last Summer in Boise. He lasted one "full" season of the Northwest league on the bump full time.

Medina is a catcher who signed with the Cubs, saw some time at other positions in the instructional league, at is now cut loose with less than two years in the system

Made was a 20th round pick in 2007. He made it as far as Daytona, but with a career average of .160.

Another 20th round pick, this time in 2008, goes as well—Jericho Jones. He also saw time in Daytona, but didn't impress. Or something.

Wyatt was a 2007 pick, 17th round out of Georgia, and another High-A and out.

News Flash: Tim Lincecum is Really Good

Tim Lincecum vs. Carlos Zambrano. Hopefully both will be at the top of their game. With Derrek Lee's neck spasms and Aramis Ramirez's balky shoulder, Lincecum will face a weak Cubs line-up. That hasn't necessarily worked in The Freak's favor in the past.

Lincecum throws a few pitches. Four- and two-seam fastballs, change-ups, curveballs and even a few sliders. To facilitate a thumbnail of the Giants' ace, I'm dealing with fastballs (both varieties), curves and changes. Here are a few of my favorite metrics, both for 2009 and his career (most of his games are in PITCHf/x, even many of his 2007 starts). You can click the headers to sort.

Pitch	When	In Zone*	SLGCON	Whiff	Watch	rv100	rv100E
Fastball	All	.578	.475	.142	.432	-0.66	-0.24
Change-up	All	.427	.431	.433	.206	-2.78	-2.45
Curveball	All	.436	.411	.373	.504	-1.44	-0.90
Fastball	2009	.579	.498	.124	.459	-0.48	-0.09
Change-up	2009	.421	.377	.422	.201	-4.19	-3.51
Curveball	2009	.443	.340	.331	.483	-1.51	-0.34

His change-up is the most effective pitch in baseball, based on run values. And it's no fluke. The basic experience with Lincecum can be summarized as:

• Fastballs that you can't do much with and get called for a lot of strikes
• Curveballs that freeze you in the zone and produce at least an average whiff rate (for a curve)
• Change-ups that are devastating
  

*two feet wide, individual hitters' top/bottoms

Esmailin Caridad PITCHf/x Scouting Report

Rookie reliever Esmailin Cardidad has thrown 225 pitches for the Cubs, so it's now time to dive into his stuff a little more. Updated plate location graphs at the bottom of the post

Caridad has been on the radar screen pretty much since he came over from the Hiroshima Carp, which was after the NPL's 2007 season. Caridad's big splash, for me, came in the Arizona Fall League in 2008.

Working out of the Iowa Cubs rotation, Cardidad did well against Triple-A competition in 2009 (7.8 K/9, 3.1 B/9, 1.2 HR/9). It earned him two separate call-ups and plenty of chances to show his stuff. Working out of the bullpen, he's had even better success (8.2, 1.3, 0.0).

His stuff is not hard to figure out. Labeling his breaking ball is rather subjective. Caridad's bread-and-butter is 93-95 mph fastball. He also employs a sinker, thrown more to lefties, and the aforementioned slider. The slider is really the out pitch to lefties, but will be used early in counts against righties.

The slider runs in the upper 70s, is a little loopy and a lot sweepy. OK, I may be making up words, but take a look at what I mean.



He rarely throws the change-up, just five of them. It runs about 85 mph.



He likes to work up, but no one has taken him deep yet. Yet.

cfx	#	MPH	B:CS	IWZ
CH	5	85.1	2.0	0.600
F2	41	92.0	2.0	0.561
F4	130	93.6	1.5	0.608
SL	49	77.5	3.3	0.449
	225	89.6	2.0	0.564

cfx	#	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch
CH	5	0.400	0.000	0.000	0.333
F2	41	0.439	0.167	0.222	0.391
F4	130	0.515	0.299	0.294	0.342
SL	49	0.306	0.200	0.222	0.591
	225	0.453	0.255	0.255	0.394

cfx	#	nkSLG	GB%	FB%	PU%	LD%	HR/FL%
CH	5	0.000	100%	0%	0%	0%
F2	41	0.714	29%	29%	0%	43%	0%
F4	130	0.524	33%	38%	14%	14%	0%
SL	49	0.500	50%	10%	20%	20%	0%
	225	0.525	40%	28%	13%	20%	0%

cfx	#	rv100	rv100E
CH	5	-12.00	-4.70
F2	41	3.39	3.71
F4	130	-2.09	-2.79
SL	49	1.67	1.10
	225	-0.49	-0.80

That's a good, effective fastball. No matter how you slice it.

----------------

Chris Carpenter Preview

Nothing like losing a tough game, only to wake-up to face one of the best pitchers in baseball. Sunday's no treat (Adam Wainwright) but let's deal with Ryan Dempster's Saturday opponent, Chris Carpenter, first.

Carpenter throws a sinker (dark red), cutter (green), curveball (coral) and some change-ups (blue) and the rare four seam fastball (yellow).

Spin movement (in inches; catcher's view):



Arm angle corrected spin axis (degrees) by speed at release (mph)



He has terrific control:

cfx	#	MPH	B:CS	IWZ
Change-up	54	86.1	2.5	0.407
Curveball	606	75.7	2.2	0.436
Sinker	1155	93.6	1.4	0.627
Fastball	8	92.5	0.0	1.000
Cutter	697	88.2	2.2	0.534
	2,520	87.6	1.8	0.552

The sinker is thrown to contact, but the rest of the pitches miss a good number of bats. The cutter is tough to hit, despite being a frequent visitor to the strike zone. The key is the high chase rate, so it looks like a pitch he can command in and out of the zone.

cfx	#	Swing	Whiff	Chase	Watch
Change-up	54	0.352	0.211	0.188	0.409
Curveball	606	0.370	0.371	0.287	0.515
Sinker	1155	0.438	0.095	0.200	0.408
Fastball	8	0.375	0.333		0.625
Cutter	697	0.568	0.260	0.403	0.285
	2,520	0.456	0.208	0.284	0.396

If you haven't heard or figured it out, Carpenter is a ground ball machine.

cfx	#	GB%	FB%	PU%	LD%
Change-up	54	43%	50%	0%	7%
Curveball	606	61%	13%	9%	17%
Sinker	1155	58%	19%	5%	17%
Fastball	8
Cutter	697	48%	26%	9%	17%
	2,520	55%	21%	6%	17%

Which means his pitches are tough to elevate. Put it all together, and you have a pitcher who will waste a change-up to lefties, but has three plus pitches that he throws often to everyone.

cfx	#	nkSLG	HR/FL%	rv100	rv100E
Change-up	54	0.500	0%	3.05	2.69
Curveball	606	0.333	0%	-1.60	-1.27
Sinker	1155	0.426	4%	-1.46	-0.94
Fastball	8			-4.93	-4.93
Cutter	697	0.355	5%	-2.40	-0.99
	2,520	0.395	4%	-1.67	-0.97

Carpenter's velocity, if you go back to 2008, has been on the rise. But, if you look at his home starts and raise and skeptical eyebrow at one start, he may be wearing down a bit.



Carpenter was knocked around (a six run inning) last time out, and LaRussa was more concerned than his pitcher.

Lilly vs Smoltz - Run Values by Start

Things get underway Friday in the last I-55 tilt of 2009. Ted Lilly will face John Smoltz in Busch III to start a three-game weekend series.

When the Red Sox let Smoltz go, I figured he was pretty much spent. He beat expectations (mine by a mile) when he debuted as a Cardinal. Since then, a bit of the shine came off and he got a little time off. Smoltz will be working on nine days rest.

Start by Start Performance

These rv100 and rv100E values are game-by-game roll-ups of a stat I usually use pitch-by-pitch. These are calculated the same way, with negative values being better (effectively runs saved per 100 pitches). rv100E is based on batted ball type and rv100 is based on batted ball outcome (i.e. liners and grounders vs. doubles and outs).

John Smoltz



Smoltz came back to earth before a missed start due to shoulder tendinitis. Still not bad, and, as some readers pointed out to me, very unlucky while in Boston.

Ted Lilly



Lilly also looks to be coming down from a mini-peak, but has had a few long stretches of solid outings.

Smoltz against Chicago

In case you're wondering, this will be Smoltz' 30th start against the Cubs. Throw in ten relief appearances and you have a career line of 202.7 innings, 15 wins, eight saves, four shutouts (and two other complete games). Best part? 171 K and just 61 BB. It all adds up to a 1.10 WHIP and a 3.33 ERA. Like any of that matters, but it is impressive. The only blemish would be the 30 home runs the Cubs have hit against him.

Randy Wells Pitch Mix

Two looks at the same numbers. A line graph and a stacked bar graph. The subject is the pitch selection of Cubs rookie Randy Wells.





"Mix" seems to be the appropriate term for Wells. He'll face the Brewers and Dave Bush at 1:20. It's getaway day—off to St. Louis.

Rubber Match - Ted Lilly vs Homer Bailey

Saturday saw the Cubs bring their four game winning streak to a close. It ended despite coming back from 5-0 deficit against the Reds. In a game marred by poor defense by the Cubs, Carlos Marmol was just wild enough, and gave up two hits, to give the game back to the visitors from Ohio, 7-5.

Ted Lilly and Homer Bailey will match-up in Sunday's rubber match. Lilly's been great lately, doing his normal throw-strikes get-fly-balls routine. Bailey has been roughed up in 2009, as he was in 2008 and 2007 (in limited stints) despite being, at one time, a much hyped prospect.

Bailey has shown good velocity in 2009, better than years past, but has yet to develop into anything more than a back of the rotation guy with a 95 mph fastball. This year, he's been throwing everything harder. His slider is back in the upper 80s, after a dip into the mid 80s last year. Bailey's change-up is also thrown harder, and less often.








As you can see, when it comes to Homer Bailey, there's not exactly a lot of 2007 data. Or 2008 for that matter. Rolling the years back together...

Counts	#	Change	Curve	Sinker	Fastball	Slider
first	638	6%	10%	4%	72%	8%
ahead	686	15%	12%	3%	55%	15%
even	430	13%	13%	3%	58%	13%
behind	622	6%	5%	6%	76%	7%
full	98	4%	9%	3%	82%	2%
	2474	10%	10%	4%	66%	10%

cfx	#	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch
Change	243	0.535	0.285	8.0	0.444	0.341	0.185
Curve	238	0.378	0.189	1.8	0.479	0.250	0.474
Sinker	98	0.378	0.216	2.5	0.459	0.170	0.356
Fastball	1641	0.451	0.127	2.0	0.569	0.216	0.364
Slider	254	0.500	0.173	3.9	0.476	0.308	0.289
	2474	0.454	0.158	2.3	0.534	0.243	0.352

cfx	#	nkSLG	GB%	FB%	PU%	LD%	HR/FL%
Change	243	0.634	34%	27%	7%	32%	4%
Curve	238	0.605	50%	29%	3%	18%	11%
Sinker	98	0.286	50%	36%	0%	14%	0%
Fastball	1641	0.513	42%	28%	8%	22%	8%
Slider	254	0.746	36%	35%	2%	27%	15%
	2474	0.553	41%	29%	6%	23%	9%

cfx	#	rv100	rv100E
Change	243	1.20	1.04
Curve	238	0.89	0.17
Sinker	98	-0.85	0.42
Fastball	1641	0.36	0.54
Slider	254	4.04	2.70
	2474	0.82	0.77

Wilder Harden

Rich Harden's control has been on and off lately. Off in a big way against the Reds, where he needed over 100 pitches to throw four innings. It took him 40 to get through the first.

Two starts ago, Harden's control was awful. Last time out, it was much better - and Harden was at his best. On Friday, his control was even worse than the "wild" game of August 31. You have to go back to May 23, 2008 to find a game where Harden found the zone less often.

Defining strikes as any pitch that crosses a two-foot wide plate and is within the top/bottom average zone for each hitter. For each game, the PITCHf/x operators set a top and bottom for each hitter. I'm using the average - across all games - for each hitter.

In Wide Zone rate, going back past his best game since at least 2008 (7/21) to the beginning of July:

July  4       .563
July 10       .563
July 16       .515
July 21       .617
July 26       .533
July 31       .606
August  5     .471
August 11     .598
August 19     .456
August 26     .558
August 31     .408
September  5  .576
September 11  .388

Harden hasn't put together two straight outings with good command since July. The Major League average for 2009 is .526, Harden's IWZ rate for 2009 .511 so he's below average to begin with.

Being "wild" isn't all bad for Harden, in small doses. His change-up isn't really meant to be a strike (not a called one, at least) and running the heater up and out of the zone can be a very good thing for Harden.

From the looks of things, Harden was missing glove side against the Reds on Patriot Day.



August 31, also wild against the Mets, was not quite the same problem. Missing glove side a lot, but some strikes on the inner side to righties.



The good start (9/5), also against the Mets in Citi Field, for comparison:



Far from perfect, he was able to attack both sides of the plate. The pattern also lacks the top-left-to-bottom-right spray especially prevalent against the Reds.

Cubs Get Second Shot at Justin Lehr

Justin Lehr resurrected his career in Dusty Baker's rotation. His second start as a Major Leaguer, at the age of 32, was against the Cubs in August. It didn't go well for Chicago.

Lehr hasn't topped 90 mph yet, but he's managed to win a few ballgames. He's got below average stuff, but he changes speeds and throws a bunch of different pitches. His sinker/fastball/cutter combo lean well towards the cut side of the fastball spectrum, as he looks to come over-the-top and throws the ball pretty straight.

Here's what he throws, a variety of looks at when he throws it, and how he's done with it so far.

Type	#	vs LHH	vs RHH	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z	DEG	RPM
Curveball	86	50	36	71.8	5.0	-8.0	32.6	1,523.0
Sinker	265	106	159	86.7	-5.2	7.3	215.6	1,743.1
Fastball	104	64	40	85.6	0.1	7.9	179.4	1,531.6
Cutter	51	7	44	84.7	2.6	5.0	152.0	1,082.9
Splitter	105	57	48	80.5	-3.6	5.8	213.1	1,255.2
Slider	85	14	71	80.0	3.0	0.7	106.6	648.5

His fastball looks like a cutter, until he throws an actual cutter (or, at least, what I think is an actual cutter).

Here's what he throws against lefties.

v LHH	#	Curveball	Sinker	Fastball	Cutter	Splitter	Slider
first	82	9%	46%	15%	2%	24%	4%
ahead	66	52%	17%	14%	5%	12%	2%
even	46	13%	30%	20%	2%	30%	4%
behind	89	2%	43%	30%	1%	16%	8%
full	15	7%	33%	47%	0%	7%	7%

Starts with sinkers, finishes with curveballs.

Righties:

v RHH	#	Curveball	Sinker	Fastball	Cutter	Splitter	Slider
first	109	6%	40%	7%	5%	8%	34%
ahead	118	23%	25%	10%	16%	20%	5%
even	65	5%	48%	8%	15%	9%	15%
behind	84	0%	46%	17%	8%	8%	20%
full	22	0%	68%	5%	14%	9%	5%

A lot of sinkers and sliders, and plenty of splitters - against both sides.

vs	#	Curveball	Sinker	Fastball	Cutter	Splitter	Slider
LHH	298	17%	36%	21%	2%	19%	5%
RHH	398	9%	40%	10%	11%	12%	18%
	696	12%	38%	15%	7%	15%	12%

Pitch selection by start

date	#	Curveball	Sinker	Fastball	Cutter	Splitter	Slider
2009-07-31	93	9%	38%	13%	6%	19%	15%
2009-08-05	117	14%	43%	13%	7%	15%	9%
2009-08-11	89	12%	38%	20%	6%	7%	17%
2009-08-16	93	13%	35%	23%	6%	12%	11%
2009-08-22	74	16%	35%	11%	9%	16%	12%
2009-08-27	117	9%	41%	14%	5%	14%	18%
2009-09-01	113	15%	35%	12%	12%	21%	5%

His pitch counts have been up the last two times out, for what ever that's worth.

Results - the most important to me are whiffs, strikes (In Wide Zone), slugging on contact, run value against average per 100 pitches (negative is better for pitchers). rv100E is based on batted ball type (liner/pop etc) rather than outs and hits, which are used for rv100.

Type	#	Whiff	IWZ	SLGCON	rv100	rv100E
Curveball	86	0.195	0.419	0.444	0.96	1.49
Sinker	265	0.084	0.574	0.549	0.58	0.30
Fastball	104	0.089	0.567	0.269	-1.40	2.02
Cutter	51	0.077	0.451	0.313	0.07	5.47
Splitter	105	0.213	0.429	0.500	0.59	0.88
Slider	85	0.156	0.682	0.529	-0.37	-1.18
	696	0.128	0.536	0.455	0.18	0.99

Best pitch is the slider. Throws a lot of strikes with it, and his fastballs, too.

Balls and strikes, according to the ump, along with swing, chase (swings out of the zone) and watch (takes in the zone):

Type	#	B:CS	Swing	Chase	Watch
Curveball	86	2.2	0.477	0.400	0.417
Sinker	265	1.5	0.404	0.221	0.454
Fastball	104	1.4	0.433	0.178	0.373
Cutter	51	7.3	0.510	0.250	0.174
Splitter	105	5.4	0.448	0.317	0.378
Slider	85	1.0	0.377	0.222	0.517
	696	1.8	0.428	0.263	0.421

The watch and B:CS say "swing more!" to hitters. Or it should.

Lehr is pretty average in terms of batted ball types, but lucky with home runs off flies and liners.

Type	#	GB%	FB%	PU%	LD%	HR/FL%
Curveball	86	44%	22%	6%	28%	0%
Sinker	265	49%	33%	0%	18%	12%
Fastball	104	35%	38%	8%	19%	0%
Cutter	51	25%	38%	6%	31%	0%
Splitter	105	54%	27%	8%	12%	10%
Slider	85	41%	41%	12%	6%	13%
	696	44%	33%	5%	18%	6%

Lehr's complete game shutout of the Cubs probably won't be repeated. I hope.

What's Become of Kevin Hart

When the Cubs traded Kevin Hart to the Pirates, he had just impressed everyone with a good start. His performance as a Cub looked pretty good from afar, but he was actually not as good as he was back in the Fall of 2007. He issued too many walks, but he seemed to get away with it. On balls in play, he may have been lucky, too. As a Cub, not so much as a Pirate.

Comparing his Chicago and Pittsburgh starts, all since July 8, there have been some differences. As usual, small sample size warnings apply.

• Everything is a couple MPH faster
• Throwing less strikes, fooling more batters out of the zone, but fewer called strikes
• Giving up more hits and XBH
• More grounders and liners, fewer flies and pop-ups, twice as many HR per LD+FB

The biggest change is in pitch selection. Check that out, and then the numbers behind the notes above.

click images for larger view

Bucs	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	FB%	PU%	LD%	HR/FL%	rv100	rv100E
Change	26	86.7	0.423	0.273	2.0	0.577	0.182	0.400	1.000	75%	25%	0%	0%	0%	5.25	-1.33
Curve	154	80.5	0.461	0.338	3.8	0.416	0.311	0.313	0.600	52%	24%	4%	20%	0%	0.56	0.00
Sinker	194	92.7	0.516	0.150	2.5	0.412	0.333	0.225	0.460	57%	19%	3%	22%	7%	0.10	0.46
Fastball	150	94.1	0.480	0.167	2.8	0.547	0.279	0.329	0.690	21%	38%	7%	34%	10%	1.36	1.17
Slider	81	87.1	0.556	0.156	2.3	0.642	0.345	0.327	1.158	26%	53%	0%	21%	21%	6.59	1.70
Bucs	605	88.9	0.494	0.204	2.8	0.484	0.311	0.300	0.684	42%	31%	4%	24%	10%	1.62	0.61

Cubs	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	FB%	PU%	LD%	HR/FL%	rv100	rv100E
Change	2	85.1	0.500	0.000		0.500	0.000	0.000	2.000	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	40.05	5.05
Curve	55	79.0	0.327	0.500	3.9	0.309	0.184	0.353	0.200	20%	60%	0%	20%	0%	-1.84	0.22
Sinker	89	90.9	0.393	0.029	3.8	0.416	0.173	0.297	0.375	50%	38%	0%	13%	8%	1.93	3.87
Fastball	139	92.1	0.425	0.170	1.2	0.662	0.149	0.435	0.423	23%	46%	15%	15%	6%	-1.57	-0.60
Slider	78	85.6	0.385	0.200	2.6	0.539	0.194	0.429	0.455	55%	18%	9%	18%	0%	0.56	0.22
Cubs	363	88.4	0.394	0.182	2.2	0.521	0.172	0.397	0.418	37%	40%	7%	15%	5%	-0.07	0.83

Lilly vs. McCutchen

Daniel McCutchen, the pitcher, will face Ted Lilly and the Cubs Monday afternoon as the Northsiders visit Pittsburgh. There are two McCutchens, one is Andrew, an emerging star in center field.

Daniel made his debut on August 31, and snuck into a brief edition of New Arms of the Week. He throws a low-90s fastball, low-80s slider and change, and a curve.

Lilly, meanwhile, is one of the more consistent and unique pitchers in the Major Leagues. Amongst 122 pitchers who have thrown at least 1501 pitches in 2009, Lilly ranks:

• 113 in average speed, thanks to the frequent use of a cutter and a generally soft-ish fastball that often drops into the mid-80s


• 93 in maximum speed, just an eyelash under 94 mph


• 2 in pitches in the zone, trailing Cliff Lee .6315 to .6312


• 120 in ground ball rate, with a meager 35%


• 41 in whiff rate, but below .20

Soft tosser, extreme strike thrower, fly ball machine with good stuff (it's hard to miss a lot of bats when you throw a lot of strikes).

Prime Harden

Last time out, Rich Harden was wild and got beat—badly. On Saturday afternoon, Harden worked five innings in Citi Field. The Mets scored twice, only one earned on a home run, and Harden struck out 10 in five innings. It was as good as it gets, or close to it, for Harden.

The number in parentheses is the ranking of that metric against the other 50 Rich Harden starts covered by PITCHf/x since 2007. The second parentheses contain the rank amongst his 24 2009 starts.

Average speed (all pitches)
91.6 (4) (3)

Swing Rate
.546 (6) (1)

Whiff Rate
.407 (6) (4)

B:CS ratio
1.8 (7) (3)

In Wide Strike Zone
.576 (9) (5)

Swing Rate Out of Zone ("Chase")
.477 (1) (1)

Take Rate In the Zone ("Watch")
.404 (12) (8)

SLGCON
.833 (40) (18)

GB%
58% (2nd highest) (1)

FB%
8% (1st lowest) (1)

PU%
17% (12th highest) (5)

LD%
17% (21st lowest) (10)

HR/FB
.333 (51st highest) (24)

rv100
0.72 (39th lowest) (17)

rv100E
-2.76 (3rd lowest) (1)

The rv100 takes a hit on the home run, but the rv100E treats it like any other outfield fly ball (worth part of a home run, an out, single, double and triple) and loves the ground ball rate.

You can easily argue the Mets were aggressive at the plate, but Harden was throwing a lot of strikes.

Make-up Game Against Sox and Carlos Torres

The Cubs look to finish their 10 game homestand with a third straight win, but risk finishing it 5-5. Carlos Torres and the recently depleted White Sox stand between the Cubs and a six game trip to New York and Pittsburgh.

Thursday's game with be Torres' third start, and big league appearance. I have just a few notes on him:

Changes speed

• can take 8 mph off his curve (two bunches, 82 and 74)
• slider can run from 83 to 91
• fastball sits at 91, but can range from 88 to 95
• 79 mph change with sink
• may have a second change-up, or PITCHf/x had a brain freeze on one pitch
• and don't forget his sinker, which runs around 87

It would help if he could throw strikes

• 15 curves, 2 in the zone
• slider was his best, 56%
• overall below average, 49%
• hitters don't chase him out of the zone (14%, which is less than half of average)

You can see a little more detail on Torres' first outing at Beyond the Box Score. Flight paths can be found at the link.

Wild Harden

Bad night for Rich Harden against the Mets. How bad? Just about as wild as he can get.

Using a two-foot wide zone, Harden had the poorest control of his career. Your typical box score will treat the swings at pitches out of the zone as strikes, so these numbers will look lower than what you may have seen already. The most recent outing is the last point in these graphs.



That's 40.8% on August 31. The other low points in 2009 were 40.6% on June 24 and 41.3% on April 15.

OK, you get it, Harden was as wild as can be. He made up for it by getting hit hard. Slugging on contact was ugly high last time out. SLGCON will vary wildly by game, but a bad game is a bad game.



Unusually wild, unusually hittable. Well, almost. His whiff rate was fine. Swings and misses were plentiful, as usual for Harden.



At least he had that going for him.