Carlos Silva to the Cubs - Baggage Included

It finally happened. The Cubs, painted into their own corner, traded Milton Bradley. The Cubs' best projection batter for 2010 moves to Seattle. Coming back are none other than Carlos Silva, and what I understand amounts to $6 million in payroll flexibility over 2010 and 2011.

Even with the cash back, we're talking nearly $20 million for a pitcher best suited, at this point, for middle relief. Against right-handed hitters, preferably.

A Brief and Recent History

Let's take a stroll down Carlos Silva Memory Lane

8/9/2008

The wall of silence that has so often surrounded happenings inside the Mariners' clubhouse was finally shattered on Friday night by the frustrated voice of Carlos Silva.

His anger evident, fresh off a listless, 5-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, the pitcher more or less accused some teammates of mailing it in and trying to pad their statistics. Silva said the selfish play of some Mariners lately has been making the entire starting rotation look bad, and he's had enough.

8/9/2008

Mariners manager Jim Riggleman said he was "very disappointed" with some of the comments right-handed pitcher Carlos Silva made Friday night during a postgame media session, and would address them during a meeting with the pitcher.
"A couple of things I read didn't make any sense," Riggleman said on Saturday. "It was very strange to me. Convoluted."

8/16/2008

Carlos Silva was placed on the 15-day disabled list Saturday with what the Seattle Mariners called tendinitis in his elbow....Silva declined to comment, as he did on Friday night.

3/21/2009

Venezuelan manager Luis Sojo was approached by several reporters individually on Saturday before his team's 10-2 semifinal loss to Korea.
Each had the same question.

"So why are you starting Carlos Silva instead of Felix Hernandez?" each reporter asked.

Sojo smiled and responded each time, "He's been my best pitcher."
...
"This is his riskiest move of the tournament," one Venezuelan reporter had said.

Sojo's decision immediately flopped...When the inning ended, Silva walked to the dugout and threw his glove against the wall in frustration. Less than an inning later, Silva was knocked out... This time, Silva walked to the dugout and did not shake the few hands of teammates who offered their support. He simply walked into the clubhouse and disappeared.

3/28/2009

Right-hander Carlos Silva insisted on Saturday afternoon that everything from his neck down is pretty much ready for the regular season to begin.

The mental part of his game needs some work.
...
Silva said his bullpen sessions between and before his starts go well. But for some reason he has been unable to carry that success into a game. He ends up trying to do too much, throws too hard, and when power doesn't work, he backs off and uses finesse. That hasn't worked any better.

To say he's befuddled barely touches the surface.

4/15/2009

"The crowd is very important," he said. "I respect the crowd 100 percent. But it's one thing I've got to take out of my mind. I've got to pitch. I don't have to worry about crowds, I don't have to worry about anything. That's one of my biggest problems. I worry too much about the outside stuff."

Silva was asked whether anybody from the team has tried to talk to him about blocking out external factors.

"There are a lot of people talking to me, man," he said, bursting into laughter. "[Monday, manager Don] Wakamatsu talked to me a little bit, [pitching coach] Rick [Adair] talked to me, the mental [coach] guy talked to me."

5/6/2009

Silva has put too much pressure on himself. All of that criticism last year? The fans going at his weight, his pitching, his attitude? It's caught up to him. The media blasting him regularly? That's caught up to him as well. He's a mess. I wasn't sure about him last year, but having gotten to see him in action behind the scenes, I can tell you, he's one guy who takes this whole contract thing to heart. He's not running off, laughing at the Mariners for having paid him $48 million. He's losing sleep over it every night. He's tearing himself apart internally trying to make things right. Trying to please teammates he feels he's disappointing on a daily basis.

You can hear it in his voice, See it in his face, He's a rich man because of that contract. But he's not having a fun time. The pressure he's putting on himself, I think -- and so do many team officials -- is making him a worse pitcher than he truly is. And at this stage, as with any high pressure situation in life, it's sometimes good to take a step back. To absorb the situation going on in front of you.

5/20/2009

An MRI done on Carlos Silva on Tuesday revealed an impingement in his right shoulder. The MRI also showed fraying of both the labrum and rotator cuff.

Yadda yadda yadda, now he's a Cub. Aren't you glad the Cubs traded away the clubhouse, media and fan problem? I think there's an old adage about not trading your bag of problems for someone else's. Someone else's problems and six million bucks maybe not be covered.

I'll share some PITCHf/x data on Silva later. Short story: sinker/slider/change.

An Interview with Mike Parisi - Cubs Rule 5 Pick

In this morning's Rule 5 draft, the Cubs selected right-hander Mike Parisi from the St. Louis Cardinals. Mike is back from Tommy John surgery and had an impressive run in the Arizona Fall League.

I was fortunate enough to get a few minutes of Mike's time on the phone this morning to get his reaction. We also talked about his stuff. Here is a rough transcript/notes from our conversation.

Questions in bold, answers in quotes/plain text, my comments in italics

---

Parisi got a call from his agent and a text from the Cardinals with the news. Knowing he was exposed to today's draft, the news was not a surprise altogether, but very exciting in the details. He used the word "pumped" at least once to describe the feeling.

Congratulations. How does it feel to be picked by the Cubs and being given a shot to make the rotation?

"Feels amazing. Rule 5 is very tricky, like the regular draft. You never really know what's going to happen."

What do you know about Lou and Larry? Or any coaches/players in the Chicago organization?

"I don't know any of them, I just know of them. I'm excited to start working and hopefully impress them."

Parisi had good success in the AFL with a cutter. It was a pitch I thought he added after his surgery, but it actually goes back to when the Cardinals sent him down, prior to the elbow injury.

You've started throwing a cutter. Along with it, more ground balls. What led you to this pitch, and where are you going with it?

"In 2008 Tony LaRussa sent me to Dave Duncan. He said I needed to add a cutter or slider to go with my two-seamer, something I could throw for strikes. He was 100% right."

Parisi started using the cutter in the Minors, but didn't get far before he was hurt. He picked it right back up upon his return.

"During rehab in Palm Peach, I worked hard at it for two weeks. I threw it in the Gulf Coast League, got some guys out with it."

Mike took the pitch with him to the AFL, and it had a big impact on his approach

"I'm not throwing as many curveballs. But the cutter has opened up the rest of my pitches, so, yes, it's definitely had an impact."

We talked a bit about his fastballs. Parisi's main pitch is his two-seamer, but he did confirm that he throws a few four-seamers

From looking at your PITCHf/x data, your two-seam fastball looks like a tailer more than I sinker. Is that accurate?

"Definitely more of a tailer. If I get it down in the zone, more of a pitcher's pitch, it gets more sink. Normally it fades into a righty. That isn't bad now that I have the cutter. I can run it in on their hands and run the cutter the other way, at similar speeds."

Are you trying to add speed to the cutter?

"I guess I am a little"

I'll have to paraphrase the rest of this answer - the idea of adding speed is to have the option to straighten it out a little. Parisi likes to be able to work the pitch from small cutter to big cutter to small slider. Sounds like a slutter to me.

Looking at PITCHf/x it appears your arm slot my lower with your off-speed and breaking stuff. Is that true?

"Yes. It's not something I try to do, it's something that happens. I try to get on top of the fastballs as much as I can. I don't know if you can really tell with a naked eye. You're the first person to ever bring that up in six years of professional ball."

---

Good luck to Mike Parisi, and thanks for being the first Cubs f/x interviewee.

You can read a little more about Parisi in my brief Rule 5 preview at The Hardball Times.

Updating the Cubs' Center Field Picture

Just a few days ago I took a look at some in-house and outside candidates for the Cubs' center field job. With Curtis Granderson going to the Yankees, things have already shifted to the second tier. More changes could come Thursday morning (by the time you read this, actually), as the Cubs could lose or gain relevant pieces in the Rule 5 draft.

Two more names to consider, not that I want to. Scott Podsednik and Melky Cabrera. Cabrera could be available now that New York has Granderson, and Podsednik just won't go away.

CHONE gives Podsednik a -10 for batting runs in 2010, Jeff Zimmerman's UZR150 projections a -3 on defense. CHONE also has defensive projections now, and TotalZone disagrees with UZR, giving Pods a +4.

Melky gets a +6 from CHONE for batting and a -3 from UZR. TotalZone comes up with a -1 projection for Cabrera.

Put it all together, with your grains of salt, and here's where things sorta stand.

Acceptable  Cabrera, Byrd, Cameron, Crisp 
Not Good    Rowand, Fuld, Ankiel, Podsednik
Not Likely  Colvin, Jackson
Please No   Camp, Guyer, Adduci

Me thinks Melky is now the Cubs' best option, amongst those I've considered so far. Be sure to check out the first post for links and more details.

Soft in the Middle: Center Field Options for the 2010 Cubs

Update: check out part two

Let's just assume Milton Bradley officially vacates right field, handing the spot back to Kosuke Fukudome. Reed Johnson, as we already know, hasn't been offered arbitration. This leaves center field open for the 2010 Cubs.

Counting out Fukudome and Johnson, the Cubs are left with two returning center fielders from 2009 -- Sam Fuld and Tyler Colvin. The glut of rumors around center fielders coming to Chicago, by trade or free agency, should be no surprise.

Including the two returning options, there are a few center fielders in the Cubs' system and the trade and free agent markets.

Returning	Minors	Free Agents	Trade Mentions
Tyler Colvin	James Adduci	Rick Ankiel	Curtis Granderson
Sam Fuld	Matt Camp	Marlon Byrd	Aaron Rowand
	Brandon Guyer	Mike Cameron
	Brett Jackson	Coco Crisp

There are other outfielders who have played center for a Cubs minor league affiliate, including Tony Campana (who played the position regularly in Daytona), but none worth mentioning. Including Tony Campana.

Hitting Projections

These r150 values are from CHONE. Here's Sean's explanation of the stat

The R150 column is linear weights runs per 150 games, or 625 plate appearances. This figure is based on what the player projection would have looked like in a neutral park and league, not on the projected stats for the park they are playing in.

Colvin      -18
Fuld        - 7

Adduci      -25
Camp        -28
Guyer       -27
Jackson     ???

Ankiel      - 8
Byrd          2
Cameron     - 5
Crisp       - 3

Granderson   13
Rowand      - 9

Let's group those another way. As a rule of thumb, 10 runs equals 1 win.

>  1 win  Granderson

>  0 win  Byrd

<  0 win  Crisp, Cameron, Fuld, Ankiel

< -1 win  Colvin, Jackson (being generous here)

< -2 win  Camp, Guyer, Adduci

Taking CHONE at face, it's about a one win gap from Granderson to Byrd. From there, it's a smaller step, but close to a win, to the next group. It's another win down to Colvin and Jackson, and yet another down to Adduci, Camp and Guyer. But we haven't considered defense yet.

Roaming Center Pasture

Starting with the players with sufficient MLB service time (Fuld barely), we can apply Jeff Zimmerman's uzr150 projections (age adjusted). Similar to the r150 for batting runs, this reflects the approximate number of runs saved (positive) or allowed (negative) compared to the average center fielder.

Cameron       4
Crisp         4
Granderson    1
Byrd          0
Rowand        0
Ankiel      - 5
Fuld        - 5

With just 162 innings of big league time in center, Fuld's projection should be taken with a grain of salt.

Where does this put our run totals so far?

Colvin      ???
Fuld        -12

Adduci      ???
Camp        ???
Guyer       ???
Jackson     ???

Ankiel      -13
Byrd          2
Cameron     - 1
Crisp         1

Granderson   14
Rowand      - 9

Granderson still stands alone, while Byrd, Cameron and Crisp bunch closer together. Fuld and Ankiel fade away with Rowand.

Awesome     Granderson
Acceptable  Byrd, Cameron, Crisp
Not Good    Rowand, Fuld, Ankiel
Not Likely  Colvin, Jackson
Please No   Camp, Guyer, Adduci

Camp's defense is well regarded (he also plays shortstop), but he's not Willie Mays. Based on what little I know about Colvin and Jackson's defense, they're probably closer to Please No than Not Likely.

If I'm Jim Hendry

The Cubs have to go outside the organization. Rowand or Ankiel would be an utter waste, Byrd, Cameron or Crisp fine for a year at a good price. Granderson is appealing, but the cost (in terms of young talent) is probably prohibitive.

2010 Cubs Rookie Bullpen Candidates

The 2010 Cubs don't look to have too many set spots in their bullpen. Assuming guys like Sean Marshall, Tom Gorzelanny and Jeff Samardzija are considered starters first, you're left with Carlos Marmol, John Grabow and Angel Guzman as returning veterans (of sorts). Neal Cotts hopes to come back from Tommy John surgery, but don't hold your breath. I'm not counting David Patton, who lost his rookie status on service time, not innings.

With Ted Lilly's season starting late and Rich Harden's elsewhere, it's likely only one of Marshall/Gorzelanny/Samardzija trio will fall into the bullpen. That leaves two to four spots open for Gcompetition.

This creates opportunities, or renews them, for a variety of young pitchers. It also makes your eyes wander to the trade and free agent market. We'll stick to the first group today.

Gang of Eight

I've selected eight rookie pitchers that all have a shot at a bullpen spot. All but James Russell occupy a spot on the Cubs' 40-man roster, and each has some PITCHf/x coverage (either in MLB or AFL play). This is by no means an exhaustive list of candidates. Just a group that lends itself to digital scouting. It includes Jeff Gray, recently acquired from Oakland and still under the rookie limits for innings and service time (by my reckoning).

Introductions are in order, and include 2010 seasonal age, height/weight, total Major League innings pitched (or highest level pitched), number of pitches available in PITCHf/x and their projected 2010 ERA from CHONE. Age etc. taken from Cubs.com. Six are right-handed, Russell and Gaub are southpaws.

Pitcher	2010 Age	H/W	MLB IP	PITCHf/x	CHONE
Jeff Gray	28	6'3"/190	31.0	477	4.64
Esmailin Caridad	26	5'10"/195	19.1	285	5.47*
Jeff Stevens	26	6'2"/205	12.2	234	4.13
Justin Berg	26	6'3"/230	12.0	133	4.85
Mitch Atkins	24	6'3"/230	2.0	21	5.96*
Blake Parker	25	6'3"/225	AAA	67	4.62
James Russell	24	6'4"/205	AAA	39	6.05*
John Gaub	25	6'2"/200	AAA	26	4.50

CHONE projects Caridad, Russell and Atkins as starters, so knock a run off their projected ERA in your mind.

Speed and Strikes

Let's start with something simple - average fastball speed. Lumping two- and four-seam fastballs together, here's what you get -- fastest to slowest.

Average Fastball Speed (mph)
Gray     95
Caridad  93
Parker   93
Gaub     92
Berg     92
Stevens  92
Russell  91
Atkins   90

Keep in mind the small samples, especially for Atkins, Gaub and Russell. Parker is short, too, but not quite as egregiously as those three.

The ability to throw strikes will be big factor in any bullpen decision, especially with younger pitchers. Nothing Lou hates mores than rookies who walk guys. And Scott Eyre. And Chad Gaudin.

In Wide Zone (IWZ) measures the rate a pitcher hits a zone defined by the batters' individual vertical limits (average across all PITCHf/x operator defined values) and two-foot wide plate.

Remember, with all these numbers, I'm mixing levels of competition (AFL and MLB).

IWZ Rate, All Pitches
Atkins   .667
Caridad  .558
Berg     .534
Gray     .524
Russell  .513
Parker   .478
Stevens  .453
Gaub     .269

For Atkins, that's 14 IWZ out of 21 pitches in the majors. Gaub was 7 for 26 in the AFL.

PITCHf/x Profiles

These pitch classifications are my own, not Gameday's. They're subject to change, but here's what I've got for the eight prospects:

---

Parker	#	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z
Change-up	9	87	-10	8
2-seam fastball	7	93	-8	7
4-seam fastball	30	93	-5	8
Cutter	1	90	-1	5
Slider	20	81	0	0

Parker's low IWZ was courtesy of his change-up, which he threw for exactly zero strikes in his AFL games covered by PITCHf/x. Otherwise, he was around .56. Parker's ground ball rate was just .23 in the same set of games. That seems flukey, as he just posted a .50 GB rate in AAA. And his overall AFL GB rate was .38.

Nothing stands-out about Parker, for me at least. Except his walk rate. From AA to AAA to AFL, he walked 41 batters in 75.1 innings. He did strike-out 88, but he's not on my list for 2010. He'll probably close games in Iowa, again.

---

Caridad	#	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z
Change-up	6	85	-9	5
2-seam fastball	45	92	-7	6
4-seam fastball	169	94	-5	9
Slider	65	78	8	-2

Despite his small size, Caridad can throw as hard as anyone in this group, outside of Gray. His slider is a slow version of Marmol's in terms of spin deflection. It has a little bit of sink and a ton of sweep, making it very slurvey, and checks in at curveball speed rather than the slider speed of Marmol's. It's unremarkable whiff rate (.261) is no different than the rate on his fastball. That, by the way, says a lot more about the heater than the slider. It's very unusual to miss that many bats with a fastball, Caridad's whiff rate is about double the MLB average for fastballs.

I expect Caridad to be back in the thick of things in the mid/late innings come April. His name has been on the radar for at least a couple years, and he seems ready to step up.

---

Russell	#	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z
Change-up	6	81	4	7
Curveball	2	77	-5	-2
4-seam fastball	22	91	6	10
Slider	9	83	-1	3

Russell was one of the most effective pitchers in the AFL. It's a hitter's league, but the lefty dominated in relief, posting a 1.26 ERA with 14 K and 2 BB in 14.1 innings. In the PITCHf/x covered games, his GB/LD/FB/PU rates were bizarre (small sample, thank you) at .29/0/.42/.29. Overall in the AFL he went .44/.23/.23/.10. That's close to his AAA line, but with a few more grounders.

Being effective in the AFL is impressive, but it's not the end of the story. Still, given the lack of left-handed options in the system, Russell should be in the running for a job come March.

---

Gray	#	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z
Change-up	6	91	-9	6
Curveball	45	79	4	-6
2-seam fastball	250	95	-9	6
4-seam fastball	95	95	-6	9
Slider	81	87	-1	2

Gray was the key piece of the Jake Fox/Aaron Miles trade. He looks good, with one glaring issue. On the plus side, he gets a ton of ground balls with everything but his 4-seam fastball, which is intended to miss bats (.225 whiff) and get pop-ups (.10). His slider has a gaudy whiff rate of .417 and I have to admit I have a innate appreciation for 95 mph 2-seam fastballs. Problem: the curveball can't find the zone (.2 IWZ), but he uses it when ahead on lefties. Tends to give up pitcher's counts by throwing it for a ball. I'll have more on Gray in a separate piece, too much to go into here.

Gray did well in the American League and the NL Central shouldn't pose as many challenges. His chances for a job in April are as good, if not better, than anyone's in this group.

---

Stevens	#	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z
Curveball	45	73	3	-10
2-seam fastball	2	91	-8	9
4-seam fastball	167	92	-3	9
Cutter	18	84	2	4
Slider	2	79	4	1

Stevens came up for about a month in the summer, and was sent back down when everyone realized he needed something besides a fastball and a curveball. He came back when rosters expanded with what morphed into a cutter (I think). He didn't throw any curves in his last three outings. His low GB rate (.31) isn't too surprising, considering his best/favorite pitch is the 4-seamer, but could come up as he works on his stuff.

Stevens has been pitching in Mexico the past couple weeks so maybe we'll get some news on what he's been working on. Obviously a guy the Cubs will give a shot, but a work in progress who will probably spend more time on the farm than with the big club once again.

---

Gaub	#	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z
4-seam fastball	16	92	7	10
Cutter	10	87	-1	5

Gaub struggled in the AFL. In the PITCHf/x games his whiff rate (.63) stands in contrast to his minuscule IWZ rate. Both extreme, but not a bad hint at his overall numbers. In AAA, Gaub walked more than 4 per 9 innings, while striking out more than 11. In 9.2 AFL innings, he walked 6 and struck out 15.

With his history of control issues, I find it hard to picture this guy getting the call from Lou. Still, he's left-handed. He's got that going for him.

---

Berg	#	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z
2-seam fastball	93	92	-9	4
4-seam fastball	14	92	-7	6
Splitter	4	86	-2	3
Slider	22	84	0	4

Throwing mostly sinking fastballs, Berg made a good impression in his 2009 call-up. His 0.75 ERA looks nice, but over just 12 innings it means next to nothing. Seven K and 1 BB are more important, and a .55 GB rate (.61 in AAA) says his sinker is working. He did have trouble throwing his slider for strikes, and barely used his "splitter", if that's what those were.

Berg got the job done, in limited time, in 2009. His track record of racking up ground balls may push him into the front of the pack, even if his secondary stuff is still rough.

---

Atkins	#	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z
Curveball	3	75	8	-5
4-seam fastball	6	90	-5	9
Cutter	1	91	-2	7
Slider	11	85	3	4

The softest tosser of the group, Atkins is sometimes billed as the second coming of Randy Wells, for whatever that's worth. During his brief MLB stint, he didn't throw that all important sinker, but he might have used it in Iowa. Probably not, his 2009 AAA GB rate was just .34. His velocity is below Wells', but his slider is similar. And Wells had a lot of success with that slider.

Atkins has received some accolades as a minor league, mostly thanks to high win totals. He didn't get many looks in 2009 (two innings plus an exhibition start in Yankee Stadium, sans PITCHf/x) and will probably find himself on the same back burner in 2010.

Ranking This Part of the Field

There are plenty of pitchers who will also get looks in Mesa. Some are pitching in the Caribbean and will get a look-see later on this off-season.

From this group of eight, I think three have a legitimate shot at the Opening Day roster:

• Gray


• Caridad


• Russell

Two have a long shot:

• Berg


• Gaub

And three are destined for Des Moines:

• Atkins


• Parker


• Stevens

So, it will probably be the opposite of what I'm predicting. I could have easily flipped Berg and Russell (hedge), too.

AAA stats from minorleaguesplits.com

Notes on Recent Cubs Hot Stove Reports

The hot stove is lit, and things should be crazy at the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis. The Cubs have been in the news a lot lately, so I figured I'd take the blog out of hiatus and get cracking again.

Takashi Saito
Once an elite closer, Saito is turning 40 in February and has been in decline since 2007. Thing is, he's still serviceable and may not be a bad middle/late inning guy in 2010. The rumor mill says eight teams are kicking the tires, so that may make the price go up too much. I have more on Saito's decline at The Hardball Times.

Milton Bradley, Luis Castillo and Pat Burrell
This is one that keeps coming back. Milt and cash to Tampa, with a hopeful flip of Burrell to New York for Castillo.

Castillo would be about average in terms of overall value, but I can't get behind middle infielders in their middle thirties. Even though I can't see the Cubs getting fair value in any scenario involving Bradley.

Rick Ankiel
Twitter was popping about Ankiel recently. As in, the Cubs are "poised" to sign him once Bradley is gone. I found the origin at Hot Stove Cubbies. Sourcing seems weak, and I have no idea of that blog's track record on these things:

According to sources, the Cubs are poised to sign Rick Ankiel as soon as Milton Bradley is traded. The Cubs have been linked to Ankiel recently along with Crisp, Cameron, Byrd, among others....It is also rumored the Cubs will in fact offer Ankiel a multi-year deal so they can can make the money disperse more over years rather than him signing a one year deal worth a higher figure.

I really don't know what to make of this report, but who knows. Besides, Ankiel isn't much of a player. He's not a kid anymore (30) and even a rebound from last year's bomb wouldn't be much of a treat, on offense or defense.