Thursday, January 14, 2010

Numbers Support Maddux Plan

Greg Maddux is the newest member of the Cubs' front office. Old 31 plans on making at least one significant change to the organization, according Rick Sutcliffe, via this TCR tweet.

Sutcliffe on XM said he's hearing that with the hire of Maddux, Cubs plan to push for minors to learn how to pitch deep into games

Well, Maddog, good call. The Cubs' minor league starters rank dead last in making it to the sixth inning.

Going back to 2007, I found the rate at which each team in minors (those leagues the Cubs participate in, from short season A on up) worked their starters past the fifth inning. The results speak for themselves.

% of starts where starter went beyond 5th inning (2007-2009)
Pacific Coast (AAA)
     
Tacoma 62%
Salt Lake 61%
Round Rock 60%
Memphis 60%
Las Vegas 59%
New Orleans 57%
Fresno 57%
Oklahoma City 57%
Nashville 57%
Colorado Springs 57%
Portland 56%
Albuquerque 55%
Sacremento 55%
Reno 53%
Omaha 48%
Iowa 47%

Southern (AA)

Birmingham 65%
Mobile 63%
West Tennessee 59%
Mobile 58%
Huntsville 56%
Montgomery 54%
Carolina 53%
Chattanooga 52%
Jacksonville 51%
Tennessee 44%

Florida State (A+)

Clearwater 62%
Fort Meyers 56%
Jupiter 54%
Dunedin 53%
Sarasota 49%
Lakeland 49%
Charlotte 48%
Tampa 47%
St. Lucie 46%
Brevard County 41%
Palm Beach 40%
Daytona Beach 25%

Midwest (A)

Cedar Rapids 63%
Beloit 55%
West Michigan 53%
Kane County 49%
Clinton 46%
South Bend 45%
Dayton 44%
Burlington 43%
Lansing 42%
Wisconsin 41%
Great Lakes 38%
Fort Wayne 31%
Quad Cities 31%
Peoria 20%

Northwest (As)

Everett 38%
Yakima 32%
Salem-Keizer 29%
Vancouver 26%
Tri-City 24%
Eugene 24%
Spokane 18%
Boise 4%

No, it's not your imagination. The Cubs' affiliates rank dead last in each league, and it is extreme in the lower levels.

Nowhere to go but up—good call, Professor.


6 comments:

Rob G. said...

since you can't explain it well in 140 characters, Sutcliffe was talking about the Rangers and Nolan Ryan and their plan to work on pitchers going deeper into games and then said that he "heard" that with the hiring of Maddux the Cubs plan to do something similar...and that was it.

I also think the Cubs have focused on strikeout pitchers for a long time and that would explain why they're at the bottom of the rankings you showed.

but if they can get 10 guys like Halladay, Ryan and Maddux...it's a great plan.

Harry Pavlidis said...

I'd have to control for strikeout rate, but I'd be surprised if that explained much of the variance.

Rob G. said...

should have said explained some of it..

they also seem to do use the low minors as a testing ground, guys like Cashner, Samardzija, Ceda were getting starts in Hi-A but were limited to 3-4 innings at a time while they were figuring out if they were relievers or starters

nonetheless, I fully endorse anything involving Greg Maddux and the Cubs.

also to clarify, Sutcliffe didn't necessarily say it was Maddux's idea or plan, just that with his addition the Cubs were going to make that a focus. It may very well be the Cubs have been wanting to make the change and think Maddux is the guy to help push it through and help teach the minor leaguers.

Harry Pavlidis said...

Rob - Thanks for stopping by with the details.

Brad said...

Interesting -- yet troubling -- find, Harry. Even if the Cubs minor league teams are filled with K guys, I sort of would imagine that we're not the only system like that -- yet we clearly have found a new, low plateau.

I imagine a cerebral guy like Maddux could really add something in developing these young guys. I imagine 10 minutes with him would be shattering (but, then again, I'm a conkers Cubs fan).

JCustler said...

The Cubs lead the Majors in strikeouts for at least 8 or 9 years (I think the Giants took the mantle this year though) and have been in the top 2 or 3 in K/9 for the last decade or so. Under Hendry, it seems there is an organizational philosophy regarding strikeout pitchers. I would be very surprised if that didn't explain some of the variance.