St. Patrick's day happens to be a scheduled off day for many teams, including the Cubs. While green hat sales may be down this year, it does give us a chance to check-up on the pitching situation. And not just the handful of guys who had some PITCHf/x data to look at last week. I also looked at some projections and PITCHf/x for the "rookie" group in December.
Waaay back in January I listed the 29 pitchers slated for the big league camp. Here's an update an each one, starting with The Locks.
The Locks
Ryan Dempster: is having a quiet Spring, which is a good thing. A lot of ground balls and no extra-base hits, also good signs.
John Grabow: no doubts, currently one of the three pitchers confirmed for the 2010 bullpen. This despite not being very good, and showing it.
Angel Guzman: the set-up man is done for at least 2010. A torn ligament in the front of his pitching shoulder may be the final straw in what was a promising career.
Ted Lilly: ahead of schedule! And a daddy for the first time. Lilly could be part of the rotation by mid-April. Still penciling in May 1 in my mind.
Carlos Marmol: the closer and best thing that ever happened to Chicago cardiologists. For the most part, hasn't been too scary in the Cactus League.
Randy Wells: has had only one bad inning all Spring, still looks to be a good mid-rotation starter.
Carlos Zambrano: now working without his cutter, he's been knocked around a bit this Spring. I'm still wondering why he dropped the pitch.
Lefties in Limbo
Tom Gorzelanny: got a little wild in Vegas, and not in the good way. Overall, nothing really seems any clearer about his role now than it was in February.
Sean Marshall: I'd say he's a little bit ahead of Gorzelanny. You've got to figure one of the two will fill Lilly's rotation spot in early April, eventually going to the bullpen or Iowa.
Kids with Expectations
Justin Berg: ground ball machine should end up on the team. He hasn't pitched much in A games so far, but his performance in 2009, and his minor league record, are good indicators for Berg.
Esmailin Caridad: is with Grabow and Marmol in job-security land. There's no doubt about Caridad's stuff, but the Cubs are looking for more experienced help to get to Marmol.
Jeff Samardzija: may get beat out by Carlos Silva and will have to out-pitch the limbo lefties to make the rotation. A bullpen role, or the minor leagues, could be better fits.
Various Kids
Mitch Atkins: optioned to Iowa. I'm still not a fan.
Rafael Dolis: sent down to the minor league camp after facing six batters.
John Gaub: hey, he actually looks decent. Unless both Gorzelanny and Marshall end-up in the bullpen, Gaub could be competing with James Russell for a job. Gaub is on the 40-man, so he has the edge.
Marcos Mateo: still around and getting a shot, but not really an impressive performance so far.
Blake Parker: looks like the human walk machine. I guess that makes him a candidate for closer.
David Patton: option to AA as planned. The Rule 5 survivor may resurface in 2012.
Jeff Stevens: already has aggravated Lou in the regular season, but the fact that he's "been there before" may help more than the performance hurt.
Newbies
Mike Parisi: not getting prime innings, but with a thin and inexperienced staff the Rule 5 pick with MLB experience is still hanging in there. He's faced 26 batters this Spring, mostly in middle/later innings, and produced 14 ground balls. I like that, and the two home runs on six total fly balls isn't a concern as much as it is bad luck (I hope). Learn more about the ex-Cardinal Parisi in this interview.
Carlos Silva: better than expected doesn't do his performance justice. Tired and hittable the first time out, Silva has looked better each time. He's not over powering, but he's not supposed to be. I'd like to see the ball down more consistently, but I figured he'd be on his way out of town by now. Instead, he's probably going to be the fifth starter.
Jeff Gray: recovering from a groin injury and yet to see the mound in a game.
Camp Fodder (NRI)
J.R. Mathes: probably one of the next cuts. Soft-tossing lefty has been walking batters all Spring, off-setting his nice ground ball rate.
James Russell: given the state of affairs, Russell has a real chance of making the bullpen. He's been getting plenty of looks, so I don't expect him to be cut anytime soon. He's a long shot, and would have to clearly out-pitch Gaub (and he's not).
Andrew Cashner: has been wild in camp, so he's probably headed to AA or AAA. I still wonder if he's going to be a starter or reliever.
Casey Coleman: also wild, seems to be giving up a lot of fly balls. Walks + fly balls = bad Wrigley pitcher. It's Spring, so it don't mean a thing, but he's not looking like even a dark horse candidate to make the team.
Thomas Diamond: the Rangers' first pick in 2004 is still trying to regain the command he lost after Tommy John surgery. If he finds it, he'll pitch in the Majors. Keep an eye on him in Iowa.
Jeff Kennard: sent down to the minor league camp after a couple unimpressive appearances.
Vince Perkins: sent down to the minor league camp sooner than I expected, which says something for how the Cubs value the too-old-to-be-a-prospect sinker-baller.
Other Guys from the Minor League Camp
The Cubs have made space for a smattering of other young pitchers, mostly thanks to travel days and split-squads: Brian Schlitter, Jeremy Papelbon, Hung-Wen Chen, Jay Jackson
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Updating Cubs Pitching Campers
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8 comments:
I'm glad to see Silva beating our expectations. Cubs.com is reporting that Rothschild helped him get his sinker back on track, which certainly correlates with his recent up-tick in ground balls.
However, I'd still put my money on Gorzo having a better year than Silva.
You said that Wells has had a good spring with exception of 1 inning while Zambrano has been knocked around. It was written on the 17th before each made another start. Wells had 1 inning where he gave up 6 runs and Zambrano has 1 where he gave up 5. They'd each had the same spring with one bad inning.
Adding in the next start, but taking away each of their bad innings, Wells has thrown 11.2 innings, allowed 7 hits, 2 runs and Zambrano has thrown 13 innings, allowed 9 hits and 1 run.
You're the 2nd person who said that. I don't agree with either of you.
Big Z games at writing:
3/5 6 BF, 4 GB, 0 LD, 0 XBH
3/10 16 BF, 6 GB, 3 LD, 2 XBH
3/15 16, 6, 5, 4
That's twice where he got touched up in my opinion. Not once.
Wells:
3/4 6, 4, 0, 0
3/9 9, 4, 2, 0
3/14 19, 6, 2 , 2
Z: 38 BF, 8 LD, 6 XBH
W: 34 BF, 4 LD, 2 XBH
How reliable is batted ball data in spring training? I've seen some odd things over the years on Gameday this time of year. Infield triples. Bunt doubles. Single, no error, no throw, runner ends up on 2nd or 3rd.
Can it really be that reliable?
Good question. I'll check these games to see if things make sense.
nothing funky in those outings, mb21. I'll email you the files. I'm sure LD/FB tags are subject to debate, though.
Thanks, HP. 8 of the 12 line drives the 2 have given up are singles. That seems very odd to me. 5 of Z's 7 are singles. I don't have the time to look around to see how that fits, but it seems off to me. What do you know about the percentage of LD that are singles? I know about 70% or greater are hits so there's no issue there, but I'd think more are doubles and triples and even home runs than have been recorded.
I wonder if those LD's have been little bloops. I haven't seen Z pitch this spring. I'm going to try to get out to Mesa today to watch at least a few innings, but don't know if I'll be able to yet.
Thanks for sending the files.
54% of line drives end up singles
26% are caught
16% are doubles
1.8% are triples
1.5% leave the yard
That's based on 3+ years of Gameday data at all levels of pro ball, nearly a half million tagged line drives.
Big Z's personal collection of line drives, over the same time period, amounts to 443.
51% singles
30% out
16% double
0.7% triple
2.2% HR (remember, MLB hitters have a better HR/LD rate, in general)
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