Someone realized putting a solid starter in the bullpen was a bad idea, and Carlos Zambrano is on his way back to the rotation. He'll pitch in long relief until he's stretched out enough to start. The Cubs are being coy, but it's pretty clear this is what's going on.
Other things that are clear:
1. Zambrano's four-seam fastball dominated his pitch mix while in relief, further exasperating (IMO) his decision to "drop" the cutter in 2010 (he hasn't altogether).
2. Zambrano's only effective pitch in relief was his fastball (rvERA is based on actual outcomes, rvERAe is based on outcomes derived from batted ball types -- in other words, it regresses batted ball outcomes to league average; reality is often somewhere in between). A case could be made for the splitter, too.
| Start | Relief | |||||
| Pitch | # | rvERA | rvERAe | # | rvERA | rvERAe |
| Change-up | 1 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 0 | ||
| Sinker | 152 | 9.10 | 4.11 | 40 | 15.27 | 10.34 |
| Fastball | 85 | 7.13 | 5.87 | 90 | 2.18 | 2.21 |
| Cutter | 3 | 7.59 | 7.59 | 3 | 7.40 | 7.40 |
| Splitter | 101 | 3.39 | 3.22 | 25 | 3.20 | 7.81 |
| Slider | 57 | 2.15 | 0.71 | 23 | 11.32 | 7.03 |
| 399 | 6.22 | 3.80 | 181 | 6.46 | 5.48 | |
3. As shown above, he was more effective overall as a starter.
4. This one is about non-clarity -- was he throwing harder out of the bullpen?
Pitch SP RP
Sinker 91.2 91.2
Fastball 90.8 92.1
Slider 80.1 80.1
Splitter 84.3 83.5
Given the lack of secondary pitches, relatively speaking, in his relief appearances it may be easy to look at the fastball speed and go "yes, faster", but I'm not so sure.
I can dig up some more stuff (I have) but, given the small samples, I think I've done enough and still feel like I can say: Big Z couldn't use all his pitches as a reliever, and part of what makes him special is his extensive repertoire. He'll need time to get that feel back, not just the stamina, before he can go seven innings again.
2 comments:
I hadn't even thought of that last fact, that there was no way he could use all the pitches in his arsenal in 2/3 of an inning.
Excuse me while I run off to Vegas with this post.
Good stuff, Harry.
I'm just glad that the impulsive foolishness that ushered in the Z-reliever era was also apt to end it.
One thing I was wondering, and I'm not sure how to research it, was: How long does it typically take for a reliever to start throwing harder? We know this phenomenon tends to occur with every pitcher, but is there a certain amount of time required for a starters to build short-twitch arm strength (for throwing shorter sessions) or perhaps a reliever mindset (i.e. going all-out for just one inning and no pacing)?
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