I don't think the Cubs made some kind of rash move when they called up Starlin Castro. Sure, he's not even two months past his 20th birthday, but it's hard to hold him back. Why? Well, I can't be sure seeing how I've only watched him play a few times, and not since Spring Training. But they said he was ready defensively last year, and his hitting seems to have improved this year.
I'm not just talking about his slash line, which went from 288/347/396 in 31 games with Tennessee last year to 376/421/569 in 26 games in 2010. The numbers behind that line look right, small samples and all. In other words, he's apparently hitting the ball better and it's quite possible what the player development guys have seen jives with these facts about his AA stats*.
- In 2009 and 2010 Castro put the ball in play just over 80% of the time (81.3 in 2009, 81.7 in 2010)
- Castro struck-out in 62% of his ball-not-in-play plate appearances in 2009, just 52% in 2010.
- His ground ball rate has gone from a mildly concerning 51% to an above average 43%
- Those ground balls have turned into fly balls (+4%) and pop-ups (+3%) more than line drives (+1%)
Again, this is like reading tea leaves thanks to the small samples, but one could argue Castro has become a stronger, more disciplined hitter. We've already seen the improvement in walk rate (indirectly, but twice), so let's focus on strength.
Castro's 2009 AA line drives:
25 (6 outs, 0 HR, 3 triples, 1 double, 15 singles)
SLG: 1.040
Castro's 2010 AA line drives:
20 (5 outs, 0 HR, 2 triples, 5 doubles, 8 singles)
SLG: 1.200
Castro's 2009 AA fly balls:
31 (25 outs, 0 HR, 0 triples, 3 doubles, 3 singles)
SLG: 0.290
Castro's 2010 AA fly balls:
27 (22 outs, 1 HR, 1 triple, 1 double, 0 singles)
SLG: 0.333
Small gaps, small samples. Hard to argue for any meaningful change, but it doesn't look like he's gotten weaker. Stronger? Maybe. But his fly balls have been, apparently, of the longer variety.
The big change has come on ground balls, and I really don't know what to make of that. Stronger? Luckier? I don't know.
Castro's 2009 AA grounders:
60 (43 outs, 0 HR, 0 triples, 2 doubles, 15 singles)
SLG: 0.317
Castro's 2010 AA grounders:
39 (22 outs, 0 HR, 1 triple, 1 double, 15 singles)
SLG: 0.513
While Castro has put far fewer balls on the ground, he's already matched 2010's ground ball XBH and hit totals. This could mean oh so many things, but it isn't inconsistent with the premise of increased hitting strength.
Given some more time (likely today since there are no day games) I can dig into the direction and supposed distance of Castro's hits. Maybe that will tell us something more than what little can be gleaned from the above. If nothing else, there are some reasons to suspect Castro is a little stronger and a little smarter at the plate. But is he MLB ready?
*excluding fielding errors
2 comments:
These are definitely encouraging signs of growth at the plate but is he going to change his approach at the plate being in the 8 hole instead of the top of the order? I think a role change has been the downfall more so than anything else w/ our other prospects making the jump to the majors. i.e. Corey Patterson and Felix Pie
It can be really tough in the NL, since they won't see many strikes. I'm not sure how much it shines a light on a problem and how much it creates a problem, but some of each
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