I've been going through a variety of Josh Vitters related ideas lately. Some stuff in the hopper about his pop-up rates and strike zone control are still, well, in the hopper.
I have been doing some "similarity" scoring to see who Vitters is reminiscent of. My source of data is MLBAM Gameday files, dating back to 2007. I league adjust a few rates (K and BB+HBP per PA, grounders, liners and pop-ups per ball in play, HR per flyball+liner) and see who has a similar four-year line, without regard to age and level.
I looked at Vitters' career line (less-often-than-average walks, strikeouts, and ground balls, average line drive, well above average pop-ups and home runs per FB+LD) against three samples: 2010 MLB seasons, 2007-2010 combined MiLB/MLB totals, and 2007-2010 MLB totals only.
Remember, these are not projections nor comparisons to a Major League Equivalent (MLE). It's just "if you did that same thing here..."
MLB 2010
| Plate Approach | Batted Ball Type | Type+HR/FB+LD |
| Most Like | ||
| Marlon Byrd | Ryan Doumit | Juan Uribe |
| Edwin Encarnacion | Michael Stanton | Brennan Boesch |
| J.J. Hardy | Jeff Francoeur | Ryan Doumit |
| Least Like | ||
| Mark Reynolds | Derek Jeter | Jim Thome |
| Jack Cust | Luis Castillo | Luis Castillo |
| Jim Thome | Skip Schumaker | Elvis Andrus |
Rolling them together, putting equal weight on the first and third columns above (discarding the middle) (by rank order, not value -- this is not scientific, y'all):
| Most Like |
| Boesch |
| Uribe |
| Francoeur |
| Mitch Maier |
| Troy Tulowitzki |
| Least Like |
| Castillo |
| Austin Jackson |
| Juan Pierre |
| Chris Johnson |
| Cust |
Again, but not by rank and with an equal weight to each category:
I can think of a million ways to slice-and-dice the data. Let's do the same thing as above (just with the "combined" comps) but for MLB/MiLB combined, minimum 750 PA from 2007-2010.
First, using the psuedo-weighted/ranked lines:
| Most Like |
| Refugio Cervantes |
| Stephen Head |
| Jermaine Dye |
| John Matulia |
| Chad Tracy |
| Least Like |
| Billy Rowell |
| Castillo |
| Brian Jeroloman |
| Cust |
| Brock Bond |
And the un-weighted/ranked lines:
| Most Like |
| Adan Munoz |
| Ben Johnson |
| Hill |
| John Shelby |
| Tracy |
| Least Like |
| Jeramy Laster |
| Castillo |
| Brock Bond |
| Cust |
| Gregory Halman |
I don't know about you, but I'm getting convinced that Josh Vitters is neither the next Jack Cust nor Luis Castillo. The sudden appearance of Chad Tracy makes me a little bit queasy. Tracy joins Juan Uribe, Brennan Boesch, Aaron Hill and Jeff Francoeur in a little cluster of psuedo-comps.
OK, one more time, but just MLB lines, min. 600 PA 2007-2010.
By rankings:
| Most Like |
| Rajai Davis |
| Dye |
| Uribe |
| Gerald Laird |
| Francoeur |
| Least Like |
| Castillo |
| Cust |
| Pierre |
| Joe Mauer |
| Jeff Keppinger |
By combined scores:
One name I'd like to point out -- Alex Gonzalez. OK, moving on.
For another perspective, I asked my Hardball Times colleague Brian Cartwright, creator of the Oliver projection system used in the THT Forecasts, for his Vitters comps. For these comps, Cartwright used data going back to 2005, also from Gameday, employing a similar yet distinct technique to my own. And more mathematically robust.
Using Vitter's 2010 Major League Equivalent (MLE), Cartwright's list of closest MLB seasons was chock full of Gonzalez with a smattering of Angel Berroa. When including minor league seasons and limiting the pool to players of/at the same age as Vitters the top comp is none other then Franceour. And it's a very, very close match.
In other words, Josh Vitters is Alex Gonzalez on the way to becoming a Jeff Franceour/Juan Uribe hybrid. Or something like that.
4 comments:
Interesting stuff Harry. So I take it you're not too optimistic about Vitters then, huh?
I can't help but feel like we haven't seen too much of Vitters at 100% health. There have been persistent whispers that he's dealt with hand/wrist injuries, and honestly I've heard some of those whispers directly from a couple pretty reliable sources. That's one reason why I think it may be too early to make any concrete conclusions about him.
I also think Vitters deserves a bit of a break considering how young he's been relative to his competition throughout his career. It'll definitely be interesting to see how he fares in his first full-year in AA.
That said, I really hope we don't hear a bunch of people say this is some sort of make or break year for him. He's still 21 years old. Personally, I don't think there is such thing as a make or break season for a 21 year old. That said, if Hendry tries to make a deal for Adrian Gonzalez, and Vitters is the cost, then it'd be hard to argue against making him available.
His age is an all-important consideration, mostly ignored in this article. Except Oliver spitting out Frenchy for the closest same seasonal age comp.
I'm doing an age restricted comparison for Vitters that I'll hopefully get something out of.
Awesome. Looking forward to checking that out.
I think the Cubs have every reason to be patient with Vitters. Again, if he is the sticking point in a potentially big trade, Hendry might be worth making him available, but I just think it would be a shame to sell on former 3rd overall guy before his age 21 season. He's appears to have made some strides with his glove work and plate discipline, so now I think it's just a matter of him getting healthy.
Which Alex Gonzalez is he being compared to? Not that it matters a whole lot -- apparently they both hit exactly 137 HRs and both had career OPS+ one point away from 80.
Hm... That's weird.
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