Dempster Ready to Go

Here are some quick numbers on Ryan Dempster's sinker. Looking at his last two Cactus League starts (both in PITCHf/x parks, thankfully) and his last two season's first starts, you can see he's throwing his bread-and-butter pitch full bore already.

Ryan Dempster Sinker Speeds

Date     min    avg    max
4/3/08   87.1   90.4   92.6
4/7/09   89.8   91.8   93.8
3/23/10  89.3   90.9   92.7
3/28/10  88.6   91.6   93.4

Demp's first outings in 2008 and 2009 were in Chicago and Houston, respectively.

On Sunday Dempster worked into the seventh inning, loaded the bases and escaped by striking out the side. How was his sinker velocity compared to other seventh innings? Compared to his 2008 and 2009 numbers, Dempster's sinker was no different.

Ryan Dempster Sinker Speed - Seventh Inning of Starts

Date      min    avg    max
2008-9    88.2   91.6   94.2
3/28/10   90.7   91.5   93.1

He's ready. Let's go.

2010 Opening Day Bullpen

Unless Trader Jim swings a deal, the until-Ted-Lilly-returns bullpen is set. Once bulldog gets healthy, the group will probably be joined by Tom Gorzelanny. Carlos Silva probably isn't considered a bullpen option—right, wrong or indifferent. Another wild card is Jeff Gray, who made his first Cactus League appearance this week. Once he's back on track from his groin injury, he may be tapped for big league duty.

The lefties
John Grabow
Sean Marshall
James Russell

The righties
Justin Berg
Esmailin Caridad
Carlos Marmol
Jeff Samardzija

Marmol is the closer, with Grabow and Caridad with the early grip on the late inning set-up jobs. I'd imagine Russell's job is the most in danger of being taken when Lilly bumps Gorzelanny. Any of the three righties not named Marmol are prone to be replaced by Gray.

Bullpen Stuff

Time for a quick refresher on the seven repertoires. Average speed noted in mph at a close approximation of release point (55 ft. from the back tip of home plate).

Grabow throws a fastball (91) and a tailing/sinking change-up (84), a slider (85) and occasionally a two-seam sinker instead of his standard four-seam fastball.

Marshall is best known for his big overhand curveball (73). He's actually a very balanced pitcher who throws a mix of pitches. In order of frequency, he throws a cutter (87) or his curve the most; a slider (83) that is often more like a variation on his cutter (or vice-a-versa) and a four-seam fastball (88) make up his second-tier; and a some sinkers (88) and change-ups (83) pick-up a handful each during a start.

Russell is a lesser known quantity, but, via PITCHf/x, we have seen his fastball (91) as his primary offering. He complements it with a somewhat morphing and developing group of secondary pitches, which has included a slider (83), a change-up (81) and even some curveballs (77).

By a hair, Grabow is the hardest thrower of the lefties. Marshall, with his starter innings keeping his average speeds down, is not much different. Marshall's slider and curveball have the best movement amongst the bullpen southpaws, and he has a starter's tool kit. His success in the bullpen seems to keep him there, though.

Berg throws a sinker and, well, a sinker. Seven of ten offerings from the first of our righties is a heavy two-seam fastball (92). He's not Derek Lowe/Brandon Webb territory, but he is a ground ball machine. Berg's second pitch is a slider (84) but he also mixes in a four-seam fastball (92) and an off-speed offering that looks likes like a splitter (86).

Caridad has a live arm, with hard fastball (94) and a slow slider (77). He throws a good amount of sinkers (92) and has also shown a few change-ups (85). He's small, but powerful. We'll see how he holds up.

Marmol throws his vicious slider (83) more than his hard, moving fastball (95). His slider, or slurve really, moves like Caridad's (as in "a lot") but is with a whole bunch more speed. Nasty, but wild, Marmol also throws the rare sinker (94) and the even rarer change-up (82). Except one or less of the latter a year.

Samardzija is still the best third down option in the bullpen. His utility in late innings, and in professional baseball, is still the subject of debate. The good: live, moving fastball (95) and sinker (also 95). The bad: a never ending experiment with a no longer used slider (83), a curveball that is very slider-like (82), a splitter (86) and a change-up (86). The ugly: his knock-off the of the classic Bo Jackson poster.

Whether Samardzija should be in the minors developing as a starter or in the bullpen so the big club actually gets something for his salary is a debate that will probably impact some decision making, especially when Gray is ready or if a trade is made. My hope is that he just picks a secondary pitch and focus on relieving. He could be a good late inning guy—some day. Meanwhile, Marmol will scare hitters and Cub fans alike, Caridad will be a wild card and Berg will be Berg. Walks, who knows what, and ground balls, respectively.

Updating Cubs Pitching Campers

St. Patrick's day happens to be a scheduled off day for many teams, including the Cubs. While green hat sales may be down this year, it does give us a chance to check-up on the pitching situation. And not just the handful of guys who had some PITCHf/x data to look at last week. I also looked at some projections and PITCHf/x for the "rookie" group in December.

Waaay back in January I listed the 29 pitchers slated for the big league camp. Here's an update an each one, starting with The Locks.

The Locks
Ryan Dempster: is having a quiet Spring, which is a good thing. A lot of ground balls and no extra-base hits, also good signs.

John Grabow: no doubts, currently one of the three pitchers confirmed for the 2010 bullpen. This despite not being very good, and showing it.

Angel Guzman: the set-up man is done for at least 2010. A torn ligament in the front of his pitching shoulder may be the final straw in what was a promising career.

Ted Lilly: ahead of schedule! And a daddy for the first time. Lilly could be part of the rotation by mid-April. Still penciling in May 1 in my mind.

Carlos Marmol: the closer and best thing that ever happened to Chicago cardiologists. For the most part, hasn't been too scary in the Cactus League.

Randy Wells: has had only one bad inning all Spring, still looks to be a good mid-rotation starter.

Carlos Zambrano: now working without his cutter, he's been knocked around a bit this Spring. I'm still wondering why he dropped the pitch.

Lefties in Limbo
Tom Gorzelanny: got a little wild in Vegas, and not in the good way. Overall, nothing really seems any clearer about his role now than it was in February.

Sean Marshall: I'd say he's a little bit ahead of Gorzelanny. You've got to figure one of the two will fill Lilly's rotation spot in early April, eventually going to the bullpen or Iowa.

Kids with Expectations
Justin Berg: ground ball machine should end up on the team. He hasn't pitched much in A games so far, but his performance in 2009, and his minor league record, are good indicators for Berg.

Esmailin Caridad: is with Grabow and Marmol in job-security land. There's no doubt about Caridad's stuff, but the Cubs are looking for more experienced help to get to Marmol.

Jeff Samardzija: may get beat out by Carlos Silva and will have to out-pitch the limbo lefties to make the rotation. A bullpen role, or the minor leagues, could be better fits.

Various Kids
Mitch Atkins: optioned to Iowa. I'm still not a fan.

Rafael Dolis: sent down to the minor league camp after facing six batters.

John Gaub: hey, he actually looks decent. Unless both Gorzelanny and Marshall end-up in the bullpen, Gaub could be competing with James Russell for a job. Gaub is on the 40-man, so he has the edge.

Marcos Mateo: still around and getting a shot, but not really an impressive performance so far.

Blake Parker: looks like the human walk machine. I guess that makes him a candidate for closer.

David Patton: option to AA as planned. The Rule 5 survivor may resurface in 2012.

Jeff Stevens: already has aggravated Lou in the regular season, but the fact that he's "been there before" may help more than the performance hurt.

Newbies
Mike Parisi: not getting prime innings, but with a thin and inexperienced staff the Rule 5 pick with MLB experience is still hanging in there. He's faced 26 batters this Spring, mostly in middle/later innings, and produced 14 ground balls. I like that, and the two home runs on six total fly balls isn't a concern as much as it is bad luck (I hope). Learn more about the ex-Cardinal Parisi in this interview.

Carlos Silva: better than expected doesn't do his performance justice. Tired and hittable the first time out, Silva has looked better each time. He's not over powering, but he's not supposed to be. I'd like to see the ball down more consistently, but I figured he'd be on his way out of town by now. Instead, he's probably going to be the fifth starter.

Jeff Gray: recovering from a groin injury and yet to see the mound in a game.

Camp Fodder (NRI)
J.R. Mathes: probably one of the next cuts. Soft-tossing lefty has been walking batters all Spring, off-setting his nice ground ball rate.

James Russell: given the state of affairs, Russell has a real chance of making the bullpen. He's been getting plenty of looks, so I don't expect him to be cut anytime soon. He's a long shot, and would have to clearly out-pitch Gaub (and he's not).

Andrew Cashner: has been wild in camp, so he's probably headed to AA or AAA. I still wonder if he's going to be a starter or reliever.

Casey Coleman: also wild, seems to be giving up a lot of fly balls. Walks + fly balls = bad Wrigley pitcher. It's Spring, so it don't mean a thing, but he's not looking like even a dark horse candidate to make the team.

Thomas Diamond: the Rangers' first pick in 2004 is still trying to regain the command he lost after Tommy John surgery. If he finds it, he'll pitch in the Majors. Keep an eye on him in Iowa.

Jeff Kennard: sent down to the minor league camp after a couple unimpressive appearances.

Vince Perkins: sent down to the minor league camp sooner than I expected, which says something for how the Cubs value the too-old-to-be-a-prospect sinker-baller.

Other Guys from the Minor League Camp
The Cubs have made space for a smattering of other young pitchers, mostly thanks to travel days and split-squads: Brian Schlitter, Jeremy Papelbon, Hung-Wen Chen, Jay Jackson

Cubs First Cuts of Camp

Carrie Muskat, Cubs.com beat reporter, just had this update via Twitter:

[C]ubs trim nine on Sunday; Atkins, Patton optioned. Clevenger, Lalli, Kennard, Vitters, Camp, Jackson and Perkins assigned to Minors

They'll still be around in Spring Training, especially in road and split-squad games.

Arm Check: Cactus f/x

The Cubs hit the road from Mesa to Peoria today, facing the Padres at the Peoria Sports Complex. Along with Surprise, Peoria is home to one of the PITCHf/x installations that first came online during the Arizona Fall League. What a perfect chance to see how some Cubs arms are shaping-up in camp.

David Patton

Patton is destined for AA Tennessee in 2010. He survived Rule 5 status with an even balance of shorting the Cubs bullpen and rehab time for a strained groin.

What we saw in 2009 was a young, short-arming pitcher with decent stuff. Very rough, but he may have some upside. Or we may never see much of him again. Patton's outing on Thursday was interesting from a stuff perspective -- we saw nothing but two-seam fastballs and a few of his curveballs.

While Patton did use the sinking fastball a bit in 2009, it was just 78 of his 300 total fastballs thrown. So, the focus on that pitch today is very telling -- he's looking for weaker contact. His stuff is about 4-6 MPH off full-speed, with his sinkers just under 87 mph (compared to 92.5 last year) and his curves around 75 (79 last year).

Esmailin Caridad

Well, Mr. Caridad. Angel Guzman's bad fortune may be your big break. Caridad looks headed towards later innings than expected, barring a move by Trader Jim. Caridad is a little stronger at this point than Patton, just about 2 mph off his 93+ average fastball from 2009. He did crack 94 a couple of times, so he's not far from his 95 that makes me so giddy. He threw a couple of his slow slurvey sliders, one sinker but no change-ups. Of the nearly 300 pitches he threw in the majors in 2009, only six were change-ups, so the lack of those today is no surprise.

The big takeaway from Cardidad's day is he warmed up twice. Finishing off the 8th for a struggling Jeff Stevens (see below), Caridad struggled himself in the ninth. Still, his two fastest pitches (94.6) both came in the ninth, and one was his penultimate offering of the game. Looks like he's rounding into shape nicely. Keep in mind, he broke 95 mph 39 times last year, 97 seven times, including his top pitch of 98.2 mph.

Carlos Silva

Talking about round shapes .... sorry, I'm miffed that Silva showed up to camp out of shape. However, since then, he's been doing and saying the right things. He seems fairly humbled and willing to be a student. He's also modified his delivery (thank you Larry) and had a much better outing against the Padres than his miserable debut against the White Sox.

Silva hasn't touched 92 mph yet, but I have a sneaky feeling he may be getting back some lost velocity. Silva's sinker went from an average speed just over 92 mph in 2007 down under 91 mph each of his two seasons in Seattle. Averaging just under 90 today, he's already closing in on his 2009 version of full strength. His splitter is already full speed.

Unless I'm just being overly optimistic, he may be stronger than his physique suggests. If he can make 20-something starts, and have that sinker working, he will be a Jason Marquis-esque fifth starter, which is not a bad thing at all.

Carlos Marmol

The Rubberband Man is almost full strength. He ripped one fastball of at 96.4, so he hasn't reached his peak of 97.5 to 98.5 yet. But he's getting close. It's just one game, but these numbers are pretty funny -- Marmol's average fastball speed by year:

2007 94.1
2008 94.9
2009 94.7
2010 94.8

Six fastballs don't get into stamina testing land, but it's nice to know he's coming out of the box at full strength. If nothing else, two of the Cubs young late inning power arms are already showing plenty of power. Control? Oh well, that's for another day.

J.R. Mathes

Finally, some PITCHf/x on J.R. Mathes! And I'm just a nonplussed as I suspected I would be. Just a handful of fastballs (three of which I believe were two-seam sinkers), 84 to 86 mph. It's hard to say what that means on March 11, given the lack of prior PITCHf/x on Mathes. He has always been a ground ball pitcher, and he's left-handed, so he's got that going for him.

Vince Perkins

Last I saw Perkins (in PITCHf/x), he was working at full strength in the 2009 World Baseball Classic. The Canadian journeyman averaged 93 mph with his sinker then, but was just around 89+ on Thursday.

Perkins is another ground ball pitcher, even more than Mathes, but makes things way to hard for himself by walking guys. Sure, ground ball pitchers can get away with that, but he has a sketchy K:BB ratio in the minors, well, enough said. And that he's 28 and just made it to AAA during the 2009 season.


Jeff Stevens

Stevens struggled in his Major League debut in 2009, after putting up a long string of deceptively good ERAs as a reliever in the minors. He struggles with walks, and that showed as a Cub. Stevens has reasonably good stuff, with a 93 mph fastball (not quite 90 on average on Thursday) and a very pure 12-6 curveball.

What looked like a cutter in 2009 looks more like a slider now, possibly due to the low velocity (79, as opposed to 84 last year). He did throw some similar pitches in 2009, slow and slider-like, but, with his overhand delivery I'm not sure they're really different pitches, then or now. We'll see what that pitch looks like as he builds up strength -- right now he seems to be in Patton's situation, and not up the pace Marmol and Caridad look to be setting.

Summing it Up

Despite some uneven performances, I'm finding some good signs in the PITCHf/x data from this single Spring game. Marmol and Caridad look strong. Silva may actually be in pitching shape sooner than later/never. Stevens and Patton aren't that strong yet, and were both having trouble throwing strikes. Perkins and Mathes probably have Break Glass in Case of Emergency written on them.

Things to Read

First Spring game for the Cubs is today! It's been a busy off-season, even if this space wasn't filled very much. If you're so inclined, you can check out some other stuff that I've contributed to. Yes, this post is almost 100% shameless self-promotion.

Amazin' Avenue's 2010 Mets Annual (link) covers our mortal enemy (and my favorite team in the 80s, yes, I am a convert and confused). I covered some of the new arms acquired by the Mets this winter, along with a look at their top hitting prospects. Other contributors include Dave Studeman, Matthew Cerrone, Tommy Bennett and many others that you may already know. It's about 300 pages of PDF (available on Kindle and in print, too) goodness. Kudos to Eric Simon for putting it together (and giving me absurdly generous deadlines).

THT Forecasts (link) is a revised format for the book that The Hardball Times has published in the past. Instead of doing a 2010 Preview book, THT has put it all online, and it's even better.

Oliver projections for the next six years for over 7,000 major and minor league players. These projections include hitting, pitching, and fielding statistics (the latter based on Brian Cartwright’s own play-by-play system), wins above replacement (WAR) projections, and coming soon, base running as well. You can read more about Oliver here.
Raw statistics for the past three years, including all the statistical categories listed above.
Major league equivalencies (MLEs) for the past three seasons, so you can see not just a player’s raw past statistics, but also how his numbers look adjusted for context.
Depth chart projections to tell you just how much of an impact a player will make at the major league level this season.
Over 1,300 player comments (and counting) from the best team bloggers on the internet, to give you a more subjective look at just about every player that matters.
And all of the above, updated each and every week, from now until October.
Plus, many more features, such as projected standings and personal player watch lists, with more to come very soon.

The comments on the Cubs players are from yours truly.

Maple Street Press Cardinals Annual 2010 (link) is available online and at newsstands now. My contribution is a chapter about Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. It covers everything from Cy Young voting to HITf/x.

Blogs: if this place seems desolate, you may be able to find me in one of these places:
Hardball Times where I run a weekly piece on Tuesday mornings, and, as of last night, the occasional hit to THT Live.
Baseball Daily Digest where I'll be posting at least once a week
Beyond the Box Score where you can find my weekly New Arms piece, starting back up again very soon

Is Andrew Cashner a Ground Ball Pitcher?

I keep reading about Andrew Cashner being a ground ball pitcher. In the sense that every pro pitcher is a ground ball pitcher, it is true. He's been just average at each professional level, for the league (non age-adjusted).

For each stop on the way to where ever he ends up in 2010, here's how Mr. Cashner fared in terms of actual ground ball rate and league adjusted (100 being average, each point above or below is 1% above or below average, a la OPS+).

2008

GCL Cubs (Gulf Coast League, Rookie)
Batters Faced: 4
GB%: 0%
GB+: 0

Boise Hawks (Northwest League, Short Season A)
Batters Faced: 85
GB%: 49%
GB+: 97

Daytona Cubs (Florida State League, Advanced A)
Batters Faced: 39
GB%: 53%
GB+: 112

2009

Cactus League Cubs (Spring Training)
Batters Faced: 5
GB%: 50%
GB+: 112

Daytona Cubs (Florida State League, Advanced A)
Batters Faced: 171
GB%: 49%
GB+: 104

Tennessee Smokies (Southern League, Double A)
Batters Faced: 277
GB%: 49%
GB+: 107

Mesa Solar Sox (Arizona Fall Leauge)
Batters Faced: 85
GB%: 45%
GB+: 99

Grand Total
Batters Faced: 666
GB%: 48%
GB+: 104

OK, so he is above average so far. Barely. But can we stop calling him a ground ball pitcher?