Can the Cubs Hit Rodrigo Lopez?

Last time Rodrigo Lopez pitched in Wrigley, he was a member of the Phillies. He's now with the Diamondbacks. The link takes you to a preview that includes some pie charts and flight paths. Well, it's time to update.

Why the update? It's not the new uniform, it's the "new" pitch. Lopez's already slurvey slider has been joined by a slower, loopier version that's more clearly a curveball.

Take a look:



And his usage of the new pitch, by game and by year (skipping the one 2007 start in the latter):








Lopez has mainly used the curveball as an alternate out pitch against lefties, along with the slider. We'll see if the Cubs can wake up against him.

Ian Kennedy, Old Friends, and a Protest

The Diamondbacks are in town for four games against the Cubs today. Don't be surprised if you see some protests outside Wrigley, it has nothing to do with Illinois or the Cubs, but it's following the Diamondbacks around.

Today at Chicago's Wrigley Field and in just about every city the team visits, there is expected to be a protest outside the stadium against Arizona's new immigration-enforcement law, Senate Bill 1070.

Just an FYI....

Former not-so-star Cubs set-up men Bob Howry and Aaron Heilman have made their way to the desert, with Heilman joining Juan Gutierrez in the main set-up roles for closer Chad Qualls. Qualls is a side-arming sinker/slider guy, and Gutierrez provides mid-90s heat and a power curve. You already know about Howry and Heilman, the latter still mixing his "new" splitter in with his change-ups.

Starting the first game will be Ian Kennedy. Kennedy came over from the Yankees in the big Curtis Granderson three-way deal with the Tigers this winter. It's his first trip to Wrigley, and it could be memorable if the Cubs keep hitting the way they have been (which is infrequently).

Ian Kennedy made his big league debut in 2007 but has was shut-down early in 2009 due to an aneurysm in his shoulder. Scary. Still, he pitched in the 2009 Arizona Fall League, showing the world (and the Diamondbacks) that he was healthy again.

Kennedy is pretty basic fastball/change-up pitcher. He mixes in some sinkers here and there, but for the most part it's a 90 mph fastball and 81 mph change-up. He loves to throw the change-up on full counts. He'll also throw a pretty good curveball and a sluttery slider. Against righties, he'll go for the kill with the curve or slider, against lefties it's the curve and the change-up.

Going back to 2007, it looks like Kennedy only has one effective pitch -- his change-up. It's still his best pitch, but he's getting more out of his fastball now, and his breaking pitches have gone from negatives to neutrals. It's early, he's young, so we'll see.

Notes on Some Washington Pitchers

Wednesday's opponent will be Luis Atilano, making his second turn in the Nationals rotation in place of Jason Marquis. You can read about Atilano's journey (and his sinker) at Hardball Times. First they'll face Livan Hernandez, who has been strangely dominant so far in 2010.

The Cubs saw a little of the Washington bullpen last night and took advantage of Brian Bruney's control problems in the process. They haven't seen the best relievers in the D.C. bullpen -- closer Matt Capps and set-up man Tyler Clippard.

Not only have they been effective, but Jim Riggleman has been deploying them in high leverage situations. Not only are they the tops in Fangraphs' gmLI (a measure of how crucial a situation is when the pitcher entered the game) for the Nationals they rank 6th and 34th amongst National League relievers. Not bad for the closer/set-up guy on a middling (or worse) ball club.

I'll write more elsewhere about these two guys, but here are some quick observations and, in effect, previews of that upcoming piece.

Capps: throws two fastballs (a riser and tailer), both around 94 mph. He has a change-up in the upper-80s and a slider in mid-80s. His two-seam fastball is by no means a sinker, and he's a fly ball pitcher. He's had high whiff with the heater thus far, but his slider ain't working yet (no whiffs). I wonder what's going on, compared to his own history, with the slider and when the fastball will stop missing so many bats.

Clippard: a slightly slower fastball (maybe some sinkers occasionally) at 93, throws a slow curve in the mid-to-upper-70s, a sluttery slider in the upper 80s and a change-up in the lower 80s. He's also a fly ball pitcher, whiff rate has gone from mundane to outstanding after 2008, so I really need to dig back and see what he added/changed/dropped.

I'll drop a link here to any other Nationals stuff I do over the next day or so, and I'll probably have more on Atilano here at Cubs f/x.

Breaking Samardzija

Not only did Jeff Samardzija "add" a curveball, but it may actually have started to live up to its name.

These are average spin deflections by pitch by game for Samardzija:



Here's the important chart:



Hey, wow, some drop (not a whole lot) on that sucker. A few notes and remarks:

• Sample sizes are small and vary a lot: 1-8 sliders per dot, 1-16 curveballs per


• I check by game and park, and compared other pitches. If anything his fastballs may have more "rise" on average.


• It's strange that his slider is (was?) more effective than this new curveball, but as the pitch changes/improves and gets used in more important counts that could change


• How 'bout working on this stuff in the Minor Leagues?

Wandy's Curveball

Some info about Wandy Rodriguez's nasty curveball.

• It's in the 2nd tier of MLB curveballs by run value, as he's better than 1 run saved per 100 curveballs. That's similar to Sean Marshall and Chris Carpenter; a run behind Brett Anderson and Adam Wainwright at the top; a run ahead of Doug Davis and Cliff Lee; and two runs ahead of Cole Hamels and Randy Wolf at the bottom.


• Wandy throws curves on 33% of pitches. 34% vs RHH, 30% vs LHH


• 23% of Wandy's first pitches are curveballs


• After the first pitch, when ahead or even he's 49% curveball vs. RHH, 42% vs. LHH


• With a man on third, he throws it 43% - probably more if I throw away two out situations. Why? The ground ball rate against Wandy's curve is 63%, fastball 34%

And his fastballs are not bad. His last pitch, in terms of quality and usage, is a change-up.

Carlos Silva Pitch Mix

2010 is still young, even in infancy. So I'm not too excited about Carlos Silva's performance -- pleased, happy, and aware today's game was against the Astros. So, assuming this success is for real, what, if anything has changed? So far, and this is also "too early to rely on", his pitch selection.

Silva throws a sinker (F2), a slider (SL), a change-up (CH) and four-seam fastballs (F4). He still does, mostly 2 mph slower than in 2007, but the 2010 mix is quite different.



After another start (or two), I'll check again, break things down by count, and share some historical metrics on his four pitches. Regarding those metrics (run values), in a nutshell, the heater/slider increase to lefties makes sense, as does the change-ups to righties. But the change-up to lefties hasn't been effective in the past. That's all in context, which has changed. Perhaps the change will become more effective, for example.

Notes on Brewers at Cubs Game 2

After a day off in Chicago, the Cubs beat the Brewers in dramatic fashion. It was a strange game, starting with Randy Wells striking out the side in the first inning. That's not typical Wells. Carlos Marmol struck out the side in the last. Typical, I hope.

Jeff Gray made his Cubs debut. His velocity was not quite there, never reaching 94 mph, and he couldn't find the strike zone. He had only one slider barely/maybe in the zone, less than half his sinkers found it but both his four-seam fastballs did. Nerves, new mound, not at full strength, all of the above.

Wells couldn't find the zone against Dave Bush after two whiffs in the zone. Marlon Byrd had just thrown out Carlos Gomez at third base, and it looked like a rally was snuffed out. But after getting the pitcher to 0-2 Wells missed with sliders and heaters on four straight pitches. Rickie Weeks doubled home two runs to give the Brewers a lead they could not hold. But you know Wells was kicking himself after being one pitch away from ending the frame.

The Brewers worked Alfonso Soriano like he was a pitcher. Both Soriano and Wells saw 75% off-speed stuff today, while the rest of the club saw just 39%. Kosuke Fukudome and Geovany Soto saw mostly fastballs (both around 75% hard stuff), which didn't work out so great for Milwaukee. Fukudome hit everything (curves, fastballs and change-ups), while the two sliders Soto saw were turned into a line drive out and a solo home run.

Why I Like Jeff Gray

update #2 - graphs see below

With Esmailin Caridad hitting the 15-day DL, Jeff Gray has been called-up from Iowa (press release). Gray was acquired from Oakland and projected to be part of the Opening Day roster. Unfortunatly, he was slowed by a groin injury in Spring Training. He hasn't worked back-to-back days yet, but in the course of five days of Iowa he threw on three days, taking the 2nd and 4th off, with two innings on the middle day. Ready enough.

I looked at Gray quickly this offseason, but here's a refresher. I like him.

Gray has been a solid ground ball pitcher with an almost as good K:BB ratio from AA through the majors. He throws what looks like a two-seam fastball in the mid-90s with tail and sink, so right there I'm hooked. Gray backs it up with a four-seam fastball (I'm 90% confident on my splits on his two- and four-seamers at this point), a high-80s slider and a high-70s curve. I think he also has a 91 mph change-up.

update: I re-checked the pitch classifications, I'm more like 99% confident on all of 'em, including the change-up.

If he comes as advertised he won't strike out too many batters, despite the hard stuff. What he will be is stingy with the walks and tough on the infield worms.

Graphs

These two graphs (or charts or pictures) are taken from a game in Anaheim last August. Gray threw all five of his pitches, including his maybe-change-up. Curveballs area coral/pinking, sliders in black, four-seamers in yellow, sinkers are red and change-ups are blue.

First up -- spin deflection. In inches, this shows the movement of the ball relative to a ball under the influence of gravity alone. It is from the catcher's view, but Anaheim is off a bit, his slider doesn't back-up, but you can see the sink on the curve (with two-plane movement). Also notice the sinker (two-seam fastball) sinks and tails relative to the four-seamrs, and the change-up does the same.



Now adding speed, and using the "spin axis" for the horizontal axis. Better suited for a polar plot, this shows the movement a slightly different way than the spin deflection graph above. The sliders are small since the dot size is based on RPM. PITCHf/x under-estimates spin rate for sliders, and can miss the axis more than the deflection, which actually helps classify them. blah blah...



So, that change-up. See what I mean? Not much of change, and I haven't found a two-change game for Gray so the book remains open on that pitch.

Doug Davis - First Pitch Selections

Quick look at Doug Davis' first pitch selection, just against righties. He throws four- and two-seam fastballs, but I'm not splitting them here. Notice the change in cutter/fastball mix this year (last two points, sorry 'bout the font) - click to enlarge:



Look for the lame Davis "heater" first pitch against righties, hopefully wild in the zone, and see if someone can jump on it. Happy Opening Day.

Marmol and Caridad: Thursday Sinkers

Carlos Marmol and Esmailin Caridad both happened to throw three two-seam fastballs during Thursday's win in Atlanta. This is nothing earth-shattering, as both have thrown the pitch before. It is unusual for both, especially for Marmol.

How unusual? Going back to 2007, I have Marmol throwing 1780 four-seam fastballs and just 37 two-seam sinking fastballs. All but 8 of those came in 2009, so maybe it's a trend. Cardidad's a different story. In 2009, 169 fastballs and 45 two-seam fastballs. It's important to note I also have Caridad throwing 6 change-ups at 85 mph.

Why is that important? Because it looks like Caridad is using, or can use, his two-seam fastball as a "change-up" rather than a "sinker". Why not? Randy Johnson did. Still, in Cardidad's case, is somewhere between change-up and fastball speed.

Let's break-down the pitches from the game in Turner Field. Marmol's four-seam fastball averaged 96.5 mph and his two-seam 95.5. That's a typical gap, although the sinker being a closer to 2 mph slower would still be in the normal range. The difference in movement, on the other hand, is substantial. Marmol's "sinker" added more than an inch of extra tail (movement away from left-handed batters) and dropped more than four inches relative to the four-seam heater.

Caridad's two-seamer has more tail and less sink than Marmol's, as a result of his more traditional arm angle. Caridad's extra movement comes as nearly four inches of extra tail and less than three inches of sink. When looking at average speeds, there's a bigger gap for Caridad. 94.2 on the four-seam, 90.1 on the two-seam. What's confusing, at least a little, in terms of labeling is that one of the Caridad two-seams came in over 92 mph (a typical four-to-two-seam spread) and the others at 89.

Is five mph off a change-up? Perhaps, but not a very good one. Maybe we'll get lucky and Caridad will throw both a slow change-up and a throttled two-seamer in the same game so we can know for sure. Or maybe someone can ask him. For now, I'm calling it a two-seam fastball.