Andrew Cashner Arrives

Andrew Cashner's Major League debut consisted of a single 96 mph fastball, off the plate, that yielded an infield fly. Cashner had thrown 57 innings in the Minor Leagues already, so he'll need something like 90 innings of work to continue stretching him out to start.

Andrew Cashner: Innings per calendar year

2008  74.1
2009 119.1
2010  57.1

Only one Cub has reached 33 or more winter ball innings in last three years (Vince Perkins 49.1 in 2008). If Cashner projects as a starter for 2011, it will either be a short run, a full but taxing run (think Verducci Effect) or preceded by a lot of work somewhere in the Caribbean this winter. And that assumes he carries a fairly heavy load the rest of the 2010 season.



I've said Cashner is just above average as a ground ball pitcher. Well, maybe he's more than that. Going back to his time in the Northwest League and Florida State League in 2008, Cashner's K:BB, ground ball and pop-up rates have all been improving.

Andrew Cashner: league relative stats

Average, for the league, is set to 100. BF=batters faced and is an actual tally. Each point above or below 100 is a 1% difference from the league average for that stat.

Year  LG    BF  K:BB  GB   PU
2008  NWL   85   69   97   86
2008  FSL   39   90  111    0
2009  SOU  277   87  107   97
2009  AFL   85  116   98  104
2010  SOU  137  119  116  143
2010  PCL   71  129  127  154

It seems he turned a bit of a corner in the Arizona Fall League after his full season in the Southern League in 2009. That corner was in the form of a vastly improved K:BB rate. As 2010 has come into focus, he's continued his high-K, low-BB ways -- but now with more grounders. And infield flies, like the one he got today.

Colby Lewis Reminds Me Of...

Playing around with pitchers who have similar stuff to each other. Ran Colby Lewis and his five pitches and found some interesting names.

First, Colby's pitch mix has been talked about a lot. He's Mr. Slider now that he's back from Japan, and he's been doing very well, so he's been the subject of a lot of electronic ink.

Here's the quick skinny on Lewis:

Four-seam fastball (91 mph)
Slider (83)
Two-seam fastball (91)
Curveball (80)
Change-up (85)

That's in order of usage in 2010, by the way.

Here's who has stuff like Lewis does, in speed and movement (along with the "close" pitches they match on).

Aaron Harang (slider, fastball, sinker)
Jason Berken (slider, fastball, sinker)
Todd Wellemeyer (slider, fastball, sinker)
Willie Eyre (fastball, sinker, curve)
Chris Volstad (sinker, curve, change)
Michael Ekstrom (fastball, sinker, change)
Geoff Geary (fastball, sinker, change)

If I loosen the reigns a bit, Berken adds a matching curveball and Eyre the slider. What's really interesting is Ben Sheets, John Lackey and John Maine match on all five pitches.

If I throw in a very loose release-point requirement, he ends up being Eddie Bonine without the knuckleball. Or a shorter John Lackey.

Stevens Sliders, Silva Whiffs, Zambrano Speeds

Three quick notes on Cubs pitchers before my focus turns to Texas -- and a preview the Rangers staff. And I guess we'll be talking about Bob Howry at some point today. The latest news is that he's been signed, David Patton has been DFA to make room on the 40-man roster. I expect Justin Berg to go from the 25-man shortly.

1. Jeff Stevens just made his 2010 MLB debut. We saw Stevens last summer as a fastball/curveball guy. Early in the autumn, it looked like he added a cutter, but I now think it was his slider. Lou Piniella mentioned an improved slider when Stevens was called-up, so let's all keep a close eye on it.

To date, it averages around 9 MPH off the fastball, with around 8 inches of combined vertical/horizontal spin deflection relative to the fastball. I should probably add gravity back in, on top of the spin, to make that more clear. Maybe later, and comparisons to other sliders.

2. Carlos Silva's whiff rate returned to it's freakishly high level in his most recent start. It had dropped off, but for whatever reason he was missing bats again.

Date	Whiff Rate	Change-up W.R.
2010-04-09	0.256	0.353
2010-04-16	0.209	0.143
2010-04-21	0.238	0.238
2010-04-26	0.122	0.250
2010-05-01	0.275	0.313
2010-05-07	0.089	0.063
2010-05-12	0.023	0.000
2010-05-18	0.262	0.250

3. Carlos Zambrano's velocity has been the subject of much speculation. The Cubs say he was sent to the bullpen to regain it (huh?) and they're wondering where it went. Well, it didn't go far to begin with. But I do agree, it should have been better in relief. Thing is, it may have been getting there. So, I'm more interested in his stamina and pitch mix.

This graph shows Zambrano's four-seam fastball speed, going back to 2007, by game. The red line is his maximum, the blue line is minimum and the black is average speed.



No matter what the case, we're talking a small amount of speed.

The End of the Zambrano Reliever Error

Someone realized putting a solid starter in the bullpen was a bad idea, and Carlos Zambrano is on his way back to the rotation. He'll pitch in long relief until he's stretched out enough to start. The Cubs are being coy, but it's pretty clear this is what's going on.

Other things that are clear:

1. Zambrano's four-seam fastball dominated his pitch mix while in relief, further exasperating (IMO) his decision to "drop" the cutter in 2010 (he hasn't altogether).



2. Zambrano's only effective pitch in relief was his fastball (rvERA is based on actual outcomes, rvERAe is based on outcomes derived from batted ball types -- in other words, it regresses batted ball outcomes to league average; reality is often somewhere in between). A case could be made for the splitter, too.

	Start			Relief
Pitch	#	rvERA	rvERAe	#	rvERA	rvERAe
Change-up	1	4.30	4.30	0
Sinker	152	9.10	4.11	40	15.27	10.34
Fastball	85	7.13	5.87	90	2.18	2.21
Cutter	3	7.59	7.59	3	7.40	7.40
Splitter	101	3.39	3.22	25	3.20	7.81
Slider	57	2.15	0.71	23	11.32	7.03
	399	6.22	3.80	181	6.46	5.48

3. As shown above, he was more effective overall as a starter.

4. This one is about non-clarity -- was he throwing harder out of the bullpen?

Pitch      SP    RP
Sinker    91.2  91.2
Fastball  90.8  92.1
Slider    80.1  80.1
Splitter  84.3  83.5

Given the lack of secondary pitches, relatively speaking, in his relief appearances it may be easy to look at the fastball speed and go "yes, faster", but I'm not so sure.

I can dig up some more stuff (I have) but, given the small samples, I think I've done enough and still feel like I can say: Big Z couldn't use all his pitches as a reliever, and part of what makes him special is his extensive repertoire. He'll need time to get that feel back, not just the stamina, before he can go seven innings again.

Silva's Change(ing) Whiff Rate

A big part of Carlos Silva's early success was his change-up. Still thrown for strikes, hitters are no longer having trouble making contact with it. The same seems to apply to his sinker and, to a lesser extent, his slider. Given the low frequency of sliders (as few as 5 in one game) it's hard to make much sense of that.

The first chart shows Silva's overall rate, the second covers his three primary pitches (SL=slider, CH=change-up, F2=sinker). He's thrown about a dozen four-seamers this year, but I'll put those aside due to the absurdly low sample (they are in the overall #'s though).





I don't expect sinkers to miss many bats (benchmarks here), but change-ups and slider? Um, yah!

I understand ... wait, let me channel Lou ...

Look, you have to understand Silva is what you would call a strike-thrower.

OK, I'm back. The only Cubs pitcher who has thrown his 2010 change-up in the zone as often as Silva is currently in Iowa (despite being the team's best third down option). While still effective, Silva's change-up is no longer the ridiculous pitch it was in April.

The upside is a nice improvement in ground ball rate against Silva's change (from the low 40s to the upper 60s), so those whiffs aren't all that costly. I should also point out his pop-up rate against the change-up went from low-teens to zero.

Location comes to mind. He's gone from whiffs and pop-ups to contact and grounders -- could that be explained by location?















I dunno, location looks alright. I haven't found evidence of a change in speed/movement, so I'm left with better scouting/pitch recognition as Silva made the rounds. Or just plain old regression or randomness. We'll see, but I'm probably more concerned with Silva's recent lack of swings-and-misses than anything else at the moment.

A Short Review of Doug Glanville's Book

Former Cub/Phillie/Ranger Doug Glanville's first book is available now. I had a chance to read the book just after it rolled off the presses (thanks to Press Box Publicity), and it was time well spent.

The Game from Where I Stand: A Ballplayer's Inside View



Glanville is not your average Joe. First, he played (and started) for several years in the Major Leagues. He's also the proud owner of a degree in systems engineering. From Penn, so Mr. Glanville is an Ivy Leaguer. He's also become a writer, with columns in the New York Times and for ESPN. Based on his guest appearance at Wrigley this week, he is not a singer. That's one thing he can't do well.

What I suspect/hope won't be his last offering, Glanville's memoir covers his career in baseball in mostly chronological order. From his days in New Jersey playing high school ball, to the Ivy Leagues to being drafted by the Cubs. While the story starts out dry, it quickly becomes compelling as Glanville starts peeling back the many layers of his mind.

There are no shockers in Glanville's book -- Jim Bouton he is not. Sure, there are plenty of anecdotes about silly or strange (or scary) teammates, but it's mostly a revealing look at the inner world behind the scenes. I know, that sounds cliché, but it is fitting.

The perspective Glanville shares is one of clarity and honesty, there's no self-aggrandizing narrative. He shares some of the realities of life in baseball, and how players handle the challenges -- and the diversity of their ways.

Diversity is a big theme in Glanville's life, it's something he embraced (thanks in no small part to his parents and community) while growing up black in mostly white parts of New Jersey. Appreciating and handling diversity in the clubhouse was only natural for Glanville

And that's the story Glanville tells. One of challenges and diversity, not of shockers and judgments. But he also talks a lot of baseball -- how he approached hitting, leading off and playing center field. His "book" of pitchers he took deep is included, with comments on just about every home run he hit in the big leagues.

His feelings on baseball's PED issues are laid clear, including how things going on around him may have impacted his career. Similar to his book of pitchers, Glanville's profiles of the different types of (mostly) non-users shows his ability to step outside his own strong feelings and explain the perspective of third parties. That's no small feat, on a few levels.

Nutshell: Smart man writes book about baseball, how it's played and how it's lived by the players. Diversity is a theme. I liked it.

Seeking Optimism on Starlin Castro's Bat

I don't think the Cubs made some kind of rash move when they called up Starlin Castro. Sure, he's not even two months past his 20th birthday, but it's hard to hold him back. Why? Well, I can't be sure seeing how I've only watched him play a few times, and not since Spring Training. But they said he was ready defensively last year, and his hitting seems to have improved this year.

I'm not just talking about his slash line, which went from 288/347/396 in 31 games with Tennessee last year to 376/421/569 in 26 games in 2010. The numbers behind that line look right, small samples and all. In other words, he's apparently hitting the ball better and it's quite possible what the player development guys have seen jives with these facts about his AA stats*.

• In 2009 and 2010 Castro put the ball in play just over 80% of the time (81.3 in 2009, 81.7 in 2010)
• Castro struck-out in 62% of his ball-not-in-play plate appearances in 2009, just 52% in 2010.
• His ground ball rate has gone from a mildly concerning 51% to an above average 43%
• Those ground balls have turned into fly balls (+4%) and pop-ups (+3%) more than line drives (+1%)

Again, this is like reading tea leaves thanks to the small samples, but one could argue Castro has become a stronger, more disciplined hitter. We've already seen the improvement in walk rate (indirectly, but twice), so let's focus on strength.

Castro's 2009 AA line drives:

25 (6 outs, 0 HR, 3 triples, 1 double, 15 singles)

SLG: 1.040

Castro's 2010 AA line drives:

20 (5 outs, 0 HR, 2 triples, 5 doubles, 8 singles)

SLG: 1.200

Castro's 2009 AA fly balls:

31 (25 outs, 0 HR, 0 triples, 3 doubles, 3 singles)

SLG: 0.290

Castro's 2010 AA fly balls:

27 (22 outs, 1 HR, 1 triple, 1 double, 0 singles)

SLG: 0.333

Small gaps, small samples. Hard to argue for any meaningful change, but it doesn't look like he's gotten weaker. Stronger? Maybe. But his fly balls have been, apparently, of the longer variety.

The big change has come on ground balls, and I really don't know what to make of that. Stronger? Luckier? I don't know.

Castro's 2009 AA grounders:

60 (43 outs, 0 HR, 0 triples, 2 doubles, 15 singles)

SLG: 0.317

Castro's 2010 AA grounders:

39 (22 outs, 0 HR, 1 triple, 1 double, 15 singles)

SLG: 0.513

While Castro has put far fewer balls on the ground, he's already matched 2010's ground ball XBH and hit totals. This could mean oh so many things, but it isn't inconsistent with the premise of increased hitting strength.

Given some more time (likely today since there are no day games) I can dig into the direction and supposed distance of Castro's hits. Maybe that will tell us something more than what little can be gleaned from the above. If nothing else, there are some reasons to suspect Castro is a little stronger and a little smarter at the plate. But is he MLB ready?

*excluding fielding errors