A Look at Today's Changes

You've heard the news by now--Bulldog and Dance Fever are Dodgers now.

To Los Angeles: Ted Lilly, Ryan Theriot, $2.5 million
To Chicago: Blake DeWitt, Kyle Smit, Brett Wallach

The sixth player impacted by the deal is Triple-A All Star Thomas Diamond. The former #1 pick by the Rangers is about three years removed from Tommy John surgery and will make his Major League debut Tuesday night.

DeWitt is was a first round pick, but hasn't hit the ball as expected. He's also changed positions and bounced between LA and AAA after being rushed to the Majors thanks to injuries.

DeWitt is going to cost a lot less money than Theriot, and has more upside. While the start of his big league career hasn't been great, DeWitt's been better than Theriot was -- and at a younger age.

First 770-ish at bats of career:

	PA	Age	OPS+
Theriot	770	27	84
DeWitt	766	24	93

Upside with a lower cost? Works for me, and it should cut back on the Cubs' TOOTBLAN rate.

Including Diamond, three pitchers move around. I look at minor leaguers via a 100-based lens. Much like OPS+, everything is scaled such that 100 is average and each 10 point change is a 10 percentage point change in the stat. Higher numbers mean more, not better.

From left to right, you get PA (batters faced/plate appearances against), KpP (strike-outs per PA), BHpP (walks and HBP per PA), KpBH (strikeouts divided by walks+HBP) and GB/LD/FB/PU rates (all per ball in play, including home runs).

Minor league career stats, league relative:

	PA	KpP	BHpP	KpBH	GB	LD	FB	PU
Diamond	1009	128	145	100	72	110	124	138
Smit	1104	98	124	89	101	86	112	103
Wallach	525	126	138	91	87	119	96	125

Too many walks and not enough grounders for my taste. Diamond has improved his control this year (recent games...not so much) and Smit is doing better as a closer. Still, I'm not overly excited about these guys.

I've watched Diamond pitch a few times on MiLB.tv, and I think he might be OK as a reliever. Smit and Wallach are too new to me to be sure about them, though.

DeWitt could work out, and trading Lilly was inevitable given the Cubs' situation (payroll high, performance low). Theriot was going to get non-tendered -- and still might.

Arizona Probables for Cubs Series

Hey, a team that's struggling more than the Cubs! Let's go get 'em!

The excitement kicks-off today with reinstated started Tom Gorzelanny against Ian Kennedy. Kennedy was a Yankees prospect who came to Arizona in the big three-way trade with Detroit. The Cubs faced Kennedy in April and got beat. He's working on eight-days rest after after a nine walk outing against the Rays on June 26.

Right around the time the Cubs saw Kennedy in April, he was in a bit of a ground ball streak. That's over now and he's back to being a fly ball pitcher. He's trying to get ground balls. His two best pitches for that purpose (change-up and curveball) are both well represented in his pitch mix this year.

The middle match-up will feature rookie Barry Enright making his second big league start for the Diamondbacks. Enright, a pitching prospect who is a product of Pepperdine, can swing the bat. He has a .949 OPS in 68 career minor league plate appearances, 21 hits, 8 doubles, 1 home run, 4 sacrifice bunts, 4 walks and 12 strike outs. Carlos Silva, his opponent on Tuesday night, should keep that in mind.

As a pitcher, Enright shares Kennedy's fly ball tendency. While Enright looks to have better control, he doesn't miss as many bats. For a few more missed bats, walks, ground balls and velocity we move on to the third man up for the home club.

Edwin Jackson's no-hitter was one for the ages. The ages he put on his arm, that is. I think he threw 12,403 pitches while walking 1,224 Rays during that game. With a mid-90s fastball and an excellent slider, Jackson has strike out stuff. His struggles with the strike zone are well documented (beyond the walkathon no-no), but he's learning to pitch to contact. He's gone from a fly ball pitcher to a ground ball pitcher, thanks to an increased reliance on a two-seam fastball. Which reminds me, he'll be facing Ryan Dempster.

I've noticed his sinker before, but didn't split it from his four-seamer while wondering if it would matter much. It matters. Instead of throwing sinkers between 2% and 5% of his pitches, Jackson is up to 10% this year. Instead of being a 90 on a scale where 100 is league average for ground balls, he's up to 108 so far in 2010.

Here's a quick summary of their stuff and some charts illustrating the spin deflection (relative to a ball under the influence of gravity alone) of each pitch the three have thrown. Enright snuck into exhibition games at Chase Field on April 3 of 2009 and 2010, so we have a little bit of extra data to gawk at.

For each pitch I'm showing the average speed, the whiff rate (misses per swing) ground ball rate (per all fair balls) and in wide strike zone rate (24 inch "plate"). These numbers go back to 2007, when available. Enright's sample (225 pitches) is laughably small. Kennedy has 2,996 and Jackson 9,654.

Kennedy         MPH  Whiff   GB   IWZ
Change-up  CH    81   .39   .47   .37
Curveball  CU    77   .17   .49   .41
Sinker     F2    90   .16   .24   .49
Fastball   F4    90   .14   .29   .58
Slider     SL    84   .25   .41   .46
                      .20   .36   .51

Enright         MPH  Whiff   GB   IWZ
Change-up  CH    82   .00   .50   .33
Curveball  CU    77   .29   .20   .39
Sinker     F2    90   .08   .40   .44
Fastball   F4    90   .17   .26   .58
Slider     SL    82   .30   .44   .61
                      .20   .32   .53

Jackson         MPH  Whiff   GB   IWZ
Change-up  CH    87   .21   .52   .40
Curveball  CU    81   .30   .43   .38
Sinker     F2    94   .09   .51   .44
Fastball   F4    95   .15   .37   .55
Slider     SL    87   .38   .52   .46
                      .21   .43   .51

Here are the spin deflection plots. Star with every pitch (click each panel to enlarge).

Ian Kennedy

Barry Enright

Edwin Jackson

And the average movement (good luck reading these, sorry).

Ian Kennedy

Barry Enright

Edwin Jackson