Winter Starlin

Starlin Castro made his first appearance of the 2010-11 season for Escogido on Tuesday night. Castro had been in the Dominican Republic for a few weeks, but the Cubs had already announced he would be held back until November 30. Just long enough for Starlin to be around when a tour group from Chicago visited. How nice.

I'm sure Moises Alou, the GM of Escogido, didn't mind waiting. Heck, Pedro Lopez had the position locked down with a 205/277/260 line. Lopez has more errors (5) than extra-base hits (3).

I grabbed some screenshots of Starlin's debut. You can find them at Twitpic, just click this one -- with an interesting spelling of Starlin's name (provided by the Escogido front office, no less).



Escogido has an official UStream feed, which is one of a bunch of links you can find in the Winter Ball Viewing Guide. Hopefully Starlin won't go 0-for-5 too often.

Comparative Vitters

I've been going through a variety of Josh Vitters related ideas lately. Some stuff in the hopper about his pop-up rates and strike zone control are still, well, in the hopper.

I have been doing some "similarity" scoring to see who Vitters is reminiscent of. My source of data is MLBAM Gameday files, dating back to 2007. I league adjust a few rates (K and BB+HBP per PA, grounders, liners and pop-ups per ball in play, HR per flyball+liner) and see who has a similar four-year line, without regard to age and level.

I looked at Vitters' career line (less-often-than-average walks, strikeouts, and ground balls, average line drive, well above average pop-ups and home runs per FB+LD) against three samples: 2010 MLB seasons, 2007-2010 combined MiLB/MLB totals, and 2007-2010 MLB totals only.

Remember, these are not projections nor comparisons to a Major League Equivalent (MLE). It's just "if you did that same thing here..."

MLB 2010

Plate Approach	Batted Ball Type	Type+HR/FB+LD
Most Like
Marlon Byrd	Ryan Doumit	Juan Uribe
Edwin Encarnacion	Michael Stanton	Brennan Boesch
J.J. Hardy	Jeff Francoeur	Ryan Doumit
Least Like
Mark Reynolds	Derek Jeter	Jim Thome
Jack Cust	Luis Castillo	Luis Castillo
Jim Thome	Skip Schumaker	Elvis Andrus

Rolling them together, putting equal weight on the first and third columns above (discarding the middle) (by rank order, not value -- this is not scientific, y'all):

Most Like

Boesch

Uribe

Francoeur

Mitch Maier

Troy Tulowitzki

Least Like

Castillo

Austin Jackson

Juan Pierre

Chris Johnson

Cust

Again, but not by rank and with an equal weight to each category:

Most Like

Uribe

Boesch

Aaron Hill

Francoeur

Seth Smith

Least Like

Thome

Castillo

Jackson

Reynolds

Pierre

I can think of a million ways to slice-and-dice the data. Let's do the same thing as above (just with the "combined" comps) but for MLB/MiLB combined, minimum 750 PA from 2007-2010.

First, using the psuedo-weighted/ranked lines:

Most Like

Refugio Cervantes

Stephen Head

Jermaine Dye

John Matulia

Chad Tracy

Least Like

Billy Rowell

Castillo

Brian Jeroloman

Cust

Brock Bond

And the un-weighted/ranked lines:

Most Like

Adan Munoz

Ben Johnson

Hill

John Shelby

Tracy

Least Like

Jeramy Laster

Castillo

Brock Bond

Cust

Gregory Halman

I don't know about you, but I'm getting convinced that Josh Vitters is neither the next Jack Cust nor Luis Castillo. The sudden appearance of Chad Tracy makes me a little bit queasy. Tracy joins Juan Uribe, Brennan Boesch, Aaron Hill and Jeff Francoeur in a little cluster of psuedo-comps.

OK, one more time, but just MLB lines, min. 600 PA 2007-2010.

By rankings:

Most Like

Rajai Davis

Dye

Uribe

Gerald Laird

Francoeur

Least Like

Castillo

Cust

Pierre

Joe Mauer

Jeff Keppinger

By combined scores:

Most Like

Uribe

Hill

Cody Ross

David Murphy

Alex Gonzalez

Least Like

Castillo

Cust

Pierre

Thome

Schumaker

One name I'd like to point out -- Alex Gonzalez. OK, moving on.

For another perspective, I asked my Hardball Times colleague Brian Cartwright, creator of the Oliver projection system used in the THT Forecasts, for his Vitters comps. For these comps, Cartwright used data going back to 2005, also from Gameday, employing a similar yet distinct technique to my own. And more mathematically robust.

Using Vitter's 2010 Major League Equivalent (MLE), Cartwright's list of closest MLB seasons was chock full of Gonzalez with a smattering of Angel Berroa. When including minor league seasons and limiting the pool to players of/at the same age as Vitters the top comp is none other then Franceour. And it's a very, very close match.

In other words, Josh Vitters is Alex Gonzalez on the way to becoming a Jeff Franceour/Juan Uribe hybrid. Or something like that.

Marwin Gonzalez Takes a Walk

Utility prospect Marwin Gonzalez is the master of the low on base percentage. Still a young man, Gonzalez may have time to learn a few things about the strike zone. He may even have figured a few things out, or may be trying something new, while playing in Venezuela this winter.

Gonzalez signed with the Cubs in 2005 and started his playing career as a 17-year old in 2006. In 2008 he split time between Peoria and Boise, drawing 16 walks in 389 plate appearances. Moving to Daytona in 2009, Gonzalez went to the box 461 times and earned 26 free passes. 2010 started in Daytona but was mostly spent in Tennessee. 426 trips, 24 walks.

Since leaving Rookie ball, Gonzalez made 1276 plate appearances and drew a total of 66 walks. That's about 5.2% and a big part of a string of OBPs of .293, .287, .295 -- he's nothing if not consistent. His batting averages ran .261, .251, .241.

As things stand now, Gonzalez is hitting .324 for Caracas. He has a .425 OBP and has drawn 19 walks in 128 plate appearances -- nearly triple his career rate.

In case I'm not making myself clear:

Year	AVG	OBP	PA	BB	BB%
2008	.261	.293	389	16	4.1%
2009	.251	.287	461	26	5.6%
2009 W	.288	.342	81	6	7.4%
2010	.241	.295	426	24	5.6%
2010 W	.290	.386	154	21	13.6%

His winter 2009 campaign is also included for reference. These winter seasons are short, especially when we look at him in the middle of the 2010 season, but the contrast is clear.

update Marwin's 2010 W line is current through the end of November. His avg/obp dropped below .300/.400 and has drawn just one walk in the past week.

So, wait a second. Maybe pitching is just freakin' awful in Venezuela, or everyone walks a lot there. OK, let's league adjust Marwin's rates and set average to 100, a la OPS+.

League adjusted walks per plate appearance:
2008: 31
2009: 50
2009 W: 91
2010: 49
2010 W: 175 154

Thou shalt regress (update he has!). But enjoy being 6th in batting and 5th in on base -- hopefully it lasts well into December. Gonzalez will probably be Iowa's starting shortstop in 2011, which will be a nice test: fluke or new leaf?

Kyle Smit: 2011 Bullpen Candidate

Now that Kyle Smit as been added to the 40-man roster, I can officially* call him a candidate for the 2011 roster.

Smit was acquired from the Dodgers in the Ted Lilly trade, assigned to Double-A and then pitched for Mesa in the AFL. Smit has gone from starter to reliever in the past couple seasons, and the benefits can be simply illustrated with his post-rookie-ball ERA.

2007 13 games, 11 starts: 4.87
2008 23 games, 18 starts: 6.55
2009 26 games,  7 starts: 6.12
2010 49 games,  1 start:  2.25

Smit's walk rate has plummeted from a peak of 5.8 per 9 innings in 2008 to 1.8 in 2010. Other than his walk rate -- which has gone from really bad to really good -- Smit is mostly average across the board (strikeouts, batted balls).

Smit threw a grand total of 22 pitches that were captured by one of the two AFL PITCHf/x installations (Peoria and Surprise). He threw a 94 mph fastball, a slider around 83 mph and a splitter that checked in about 3 mph faster than the sliders.

Here's how Smit describes his own stuff:

I throw a sinker, a slider and just now in the Fall League, I've started working on a splitter. So I've been working pretty much just on that and my slider since I've been here. ... I kind of stopped throwing it halfway through the season, but when I got to the Cubs and started talking with the pitching coordinator (Mark Riggins), he told me they wanted me to resume throwing it.

Smit will surely be around in the Spring, now that he's safe from the Rule 5 Draft.

*wtvr

Two more playoff teams?

Let's see, if we go back a few years and add a second wild card from each league, how many wins did that extra team have? How many wins below the lowest total from the first four qualifiers?

NL

2010 Padres     90  1  
2009 Marlins    87  4
2008 Mets       89  1
2007 Mets       88  -
2006 Phillies   85  -
2005 Phillies   88  -
2004 Giants     91  1

AL

2010 Red Sox    89  1
2009 Rangers    87  0
2008 Yankees    89  0
2007 Det/Sea    88  6
2006 White Sox  90  3
2005 Indians    93  2
2004 A's        91  1

From 2005 through 2007, the fifth NL team would've had a better record than one of the division winners.

It seems, from this quick look, that it's less likely that you're excluding a quality fifth team the "old way" than you'd be including a so-so team in the "new way". When you have a weak division winner, I'm guessing you're more likely to add a second weak team to the playoffs than a quality team.

Christopher Carpenter: 2011 Bullpen Candidate

The Arizona Fall League held their Rising Stars Game on Saturday night in Surprise, AZ. It was, to borrow a phrase from Craig Calceterra, prospect porn. Nearly all the pitchers involved had some PITCHf/x data already, although there was one shining exception--Cubs prospect Chris Carpenter.

Not to be confused with the Cy Young toting Cardinal, this Chris Carpenter will be 25 in December and could be a part of the 2010 Cubs bullpen. Once he masters his change-up, he may be a decent big league starter.

The Cubs drafted Carpenter 97th overall in 2008. He dropped to third round, despite good frame and velocity, courtesy of two surgeries during college. He's been through a full-blown Tommy John ulnar ligament replacement, and was opened up once again to clean-up scar tissue and an ulnar nerve transposition.

As the 2010 season was opening up Carpenter was on the way to the DL. Matt Swain had news about Carpenter's spring woes:

Carpenter had some shoulder discomfort during spring training that was diagnosed as some mild inflammation. He was treated briefly and re-started his throwing program, setting him back on his schedule. It is important to note that the inflammation is unrelated to the elbow problems he had earlier in his career, and seem to be a one time occurrence.

Carpenter made his 2010 debut on April 20 for the Tennessee Smokies. He was eventually promoted to Triple-A Iowa, two short years out of college.

Steve Holley spoke with Carpenter in August and asked him about his developing change-up:

I think my curveball is still my out pitch and my second best pitch next to my fastball, but I think that in order to move up, I'm going to need that changeup and I'm going to need to show hitters something else besides that fastball and curveball if I'm going to be a starter at the next level.

Carpenter didn't throw his change-up during his inning in Surprise, but he did showcase his fastball and mixed in his nasty breaking ball. the MLB broadcasters kept talking about Carpenter's two-seamer, but I think he only threw two, if that. Any photographs I've found of Carpenter show a four-seam grip, but I do believe he's got a sinker.

Fastball (14) 98.5
Sinker (2)    97.1
Curveball (4) 86.6

For the PITCHf/x inclined, spin deflection and speed/spin graphs:





The following graphs are labeled Christopher J. Carpenter, so it's clearly* not Christopher John Carpenter of the St. Louis Cardinals.

*clear as mud

Average release points and spin deflection:



Flight paths from three views (first base, above, catcher):



Here is a set of images from the AFL ASG. They are from various at bats, assembled in approximate order (with some gaps).































I didn't grab any that caught the moment his hands broke, unfortunately. We'll see him plenty in Spring Training.

Some More Bibens-Dirkx Images

Screen grabs from last night's game against Caracas. No decision for Austin Bibens-Dirkx (Zulia won in extra innings). His infield defense let him down and he was charged with a wild pitch on what looked like a passed ball to me.

Note the first frame, an impossible change in his W/L record and a more assertive "scouting report" relative to last time.

I'm getting near the "I'll be surprised if ABD isn't in the 2011 bullpen" point. He throws strikes, puts the ball in play, fields his position and gets plenty of ground balls. He's basically a two-pitch guy, but he's effective against left- and right-handed batters. I have noticed, already, a tendency to get a little flustered by tight calls. It's subtle, but he's generally placid.

Re-figuring Vitters

A couple weeks ago, I was pondering the plate approach of Josh Vitters. It was from just a few Arizona Fall League games, so I had a plan to follow-up:

I'm hypothesizing is Vitters is as likely to swing as anyone else, but less likely to whiff. In other words, we may be confounding his ability to make contact with an inability to control the strike zone. Perhaps.

I left the "perhaps" in at the end and I'm glad. Because I was wrong.

Vitters has maintained a low whiff rate in the AFL, missing on 12.9% of swings (league is ~20%). On the other hand, his swing rate (~48%) is actually a little higher than the AFL average (~44%). In possible defense of the "knows the zone" side, when he does take, it's more likely than average to be a ball (2.9 per called strike, 2.3 AFL average).

But that's for a stint in the AFL. How did Vitters compare to the Southern League during his promotion to Double-A in 2010? Both his swing rate (51% vs. 45%) and whiff rate (26% vs. 23%) where on the high side of league average. But, hey, his Ball-to-Called-Strike ratio was 2.6, noticeably better than the league rate which was below 2.2.

So, when he doesn't swing, he's more likely taking a ball than the average player. Another thing he does more often than average is pop-up.

Up next

Along with pop-up rates, I'm looking at the little bit of PITCHf/x data for Vitters and I've been doing a little work on similarity rankings -- major leaguers who have a similar profile to Vitters.

Austin Bibens-Dirkx: 2011 Bullpen Candidate

Drafted in the 16th round by the Mariners in 2006, Austin Bibens-Dirkx had a mixed run as a relief pitcher in the Seattle system. After trying to change his arm slot, and injuring his elbow, Bibens-Dirkx found himself in the independent Golden Baseball League in 2009.

Bibens-Dirkx told CSNChicago.com that he was surprised when he was let go in Spring Training in 2009.

"It wasn't quite Tommy John surgery it was more like arthroscopic surgery but it was very invasive," Bibens-Dirkx said. "I had bone spurs and tissue in my joint and I couldn't straighten or bend my arm all the way. I was surprised the Mariners gave up on me. I figured out of spring training they would put me in high A or Double-A and if it didn't work out then they would get rid of me. That didn't happen. Like I said before, I needed a change of scenery and this was a blessing. The Cubs decided to take a chance on me."

The Victoria Seals sold his contract to the Cubs that July. Bibens-Dirks was assigned to Peoria, where he became the oldest player on the team. The roster spot was opened up after Christopher Carpenter was promoted to Double-A Tennessee. Both will battle for a spot on the Cubs roster in 2011.

While Bibens-Dirkx was old for the Midwest Leauge in 2009, he made it to Triple-A in 2010--his age 25 season. He's also the top starter for Aguilas del Zulia in the Venezuelan Winter League, which hints at his arrival in the Major Leagues very soon.

His role for Zulia has given him two chances to pitch on ESPN Deportes and ESPN3. His second outing is scheduled for tonight (Wed. Nov. 3, 8PM ET). Below are some screenshots of his first outing from a week ago.

Free delivery

Bibens-Dirkx frequently used a side-arm delivery in college, but Mariners tried to change him. Now he will vary his arm slot, which serves him very well. Not a hard thrower, maxing out around 93, the movement on his fastball is the key. He throws an effective slider and seems to always be working on a change-up.

To get a sense of his action, take a look at these 19 screen grabs. I'm too lazy to put them in "delivery sequence", so you get them in the order I captured them. One per pitch, for several of his pitches in the first two innings. I've included both wind-up and stretch deliveries, and a couple super-exciting* ball-in-flight images.

*super and exciting not included

Closing thoughts

Mostly used as a reliever by Mariners, the Cubs have used Bibens-Dirkx as a starter. he might be better off as a reliever, coming in with that funky arm angle and with two pitches he can command. In his first televised outing for Zulia, he got in trouble when he left the ball up. His outfielders made some spectacular plays, but it highlights his need to keep the ball down and on the edges. Fortunately, he seems rather adept at doing so.

Get used to hearing about his musical career. Austin has made a couple albums, available at MySpace/iTunes/Amazon. I'll try and not mention that again. Did you know Darin Erstad was a punter in college?!?!?

Cubs 2010 Defense

Bill James has the final tally for the 2010 Fielding Bible Awards. Not a single Cub placed in the top 10 at any position. Marlon Byrd was the closest, and not a single returning infielder received votes.

RF Fukudome  t17
RF Colvin    t17
CF Byrd       11
LF Soriano   t16
SS no votes  >20
3B no votes  >17
2B Theriot    20
1B Lee        16
C  no votes  >20
P  no votes  >30

Better luck next year, fellas.

Complete details here.