Another Rubber Match! Casey and Jaime

It what feels like a late Summer series, the Cubs and Cardinals have split a pair this week. Thursday brings more warm air and a day game to Wrigley Field. Young arms Jaime Garcia and Casey Coleman get the call. Check out the posts earlier in the week (scroll down, or see the nav on the right side) for some charts (every pitcher) and more background on these numbers.

Like OPS+, these are league relative values.

JAIME

Type	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
CH	100	83	149	77	125	86	83	127	66	118	83	77	94	59
CU	97	78	117	117	124	87	85	127	78	94	137	60	203	99
FA	98	104	67	92	100	99	107	103	97	153	95	56	51	126
SI	100	101	130	92	89	105	92	98	73	106	95	88	118	90
SL	102	121	123	96	117	89	139	71	80	136	118	52	45	35
	99	100	119	90	105	96	106	103	80	124	100	66	72	89

Garcia may be average with his velocity, but he seems to miss bats and avoids the dangerous fly balls. He needs a good infield behind him, and he will get BABIP'd to death on occasion no matter what. His high whiff rate mitigates those risks.

2011

Type	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
CH	99	90	174	71	119	87	96	120	27	102	106	50	285	0
CU	95	66	165	97	152	76	77	152	68	66	174	0	574	0
FA	98	95	52	78	100	102	93	108	72	147	114	53	63	0
SI	99	111	182	103	95	108	117	98	86	112	53	138	0	176
SL	102	126	131	93	100	78	154	69	87	127	112	66	56	0
	98	104	146	86	110	93	119	103	73	120	95	76	82	62

Early on this year, Garcia has found the zone less but has also increased the whiffs and continued the batted ball trends evident in his overall line.


CASEY

Type	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
CH	99	103	65	105	117	93	102	79	103	98	100	104	102	101
CU	100	98	94	66	95	112	66	92	75	34	142	172	229	0
FA	98	58	38	108	147	85	20	113	37	92	157	79	71	0
FC	95	110	156	87	130	122	122	134	0	0	0	248	392	0
SI	98	92	55	109	111	104	61	95	98	98	111	96	107	67
SL	95	76	122	97	225	80	46	84	92	40	0	155	428	256
	98	91	67	98	119	99	69	96	89	96	111	97	105	65

Clearly not a power pitcher, Casey doesn't get many strikes called or swinging. The best part of his batted ball distrubtion are the pop-ups, which are even more evident in 2011. Coleman does not have a huge margin of error. The pop-up is a nice weapon, but his inability to miss bats makes him vulnerable when his command is absent.


2011

Type	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
CH	100	112	92	109	125	97	99	32	178	67	156	127	85	125
CU	99	97	63	74	62	115	86	108	122	20	158	160	345	0
FA	98	58	0	51	324	74	0	55	54	81	138	85	152	0
SI	98	80	97	121	121	98	45	99	82	79	126	113	184	79
SL	94	82	111	112	242	75	56	71	162	44	0	207	235	427
	98	86	85	102	129	94	61	92	108	71	132	110	141	96

Also evident in 2011, line drives. Some of those will mellow down into ground balls (whether in truth or in tag) over time. The low swing rate combined with the low whiff rate is one thing, but stack on the lack of "watches" (takes in the zone), it's clear Coleman isn't fooling too many batters.