Jordan Zimmermann, Two Years Later

Happy 4th of July. Here's a look at two young starters facing off in DC today. Casey Coleman is filling in for Ryan Dempster and he's got his work cut out for him today.

The Nats' Jordan Zimmermann is an interesting pitcher. He has power stuff with finesse results. The real story his he's a first class strike thrower, a Wisconsin kid who, at age 25, is now pitching in phase two of career, post-Tommy John surgery.

If you go back just about two full years, you'll find Zimmermann's final pre-surgery start for the Nationals was against the Cubs. That was an eight strike out, one walk loss for the rookie Zimmermann. A few days later Zimmermann felt soreness during a side session. He didn't pitch again until late 2010, which was a fast comeback from the injury.

Zimmermann has had 16 starts in 2011, most of them good ones. He can be counted on--or so it seems--to get you into the seventh inning no more than 100 pitches, give or take a couple.

A couple starts stick out, especially in light of the "finesse" remark. These starts stick out in a good way and may be less oddballs than semi-regular events as Zimmermann develops.

In 14 starts Zimmermann has struck out six or fewer opponents. Of those 14, there was actually just a single 5 and 6, so it's a full dozen with four or fewer strikeouts. The oddballs mentioned above had 10 and 11 strike outs (one in May, one in June).

In short, you could get a strike zone filling Zimmermann that doesn't walk or strike out many batters. That kind of game would feature his defense. Alternatively, on a good day he'll mow down nearly half the guys he faces. All things being equal, a double-digit ground ball game is far more likely than a double-digit strike out game.

What hasn't changed from start-to-start is his control--he just fills the zone whether you can hit it or not. Zimmermann hasn't walked more than two hitters since his first start, so just pencil him in for a single free pass and leave some wiggle room on your scorecard.

Raw numbers

Type	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
Change-up	166	86.6	0.494	0.085	0.354	4.9	0.422	0.354	0.246	0.435	46%	26%	26%	2.2%	0.0%
Curveball	488	78.8	0.441	0.233	0.326	2.2	0.500	0.307	0.408	0.516	56%	20%	21%	3.2%	12.8%
Fastball	2249	93.8	0.467	0.155	0.490	1.6	0.612	0.221	0.321	0.515	41%	21%	30%	8.1%	7.4%
Slider	663	86.5	0.498	0.276	0.303	1.8	0.569	0.353	0.355	0.468	40%	24%	27%	9.4%	4.3%
Total	3566	90.0	0.470	0.185	0.426	1.8	0.580	0.269	0.335	0.499	43%	22%	28%	7.2%	6.8%

"+" style (100=average, 10 pts=10% of league average, higher is more but not always better)

Type	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
Change-up	166	104	98	29	121	136	96	105	95	93	94	144	100	33	0
Curveball	488	102	113	83	103	105	108	111	88	105	112	105	84	55	178
Fastball	2249	102	109	95	113	94	109	97	89	96	114	100	88	86	103
Slider	663	103	106	87	96	75	117	110	101	95	89	141	93	111	55
Total	3566	102	106	89	114	86	112	101	94	99	96	116	97	97	96

Scouting style (50=average, 10 pts=1 SD, higher is better not not always more)

Type	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
Change-up	166	56	49	30	58	40	48	52	49	52	48	38	50	42	62
Curveball	488	53	58	45	51	49	55	54	44	48	55	48	46	45	41
Fastball	2249	53	56	49	57	51	57	49	46	51	54	50	46	48	50
Slider	663	54	54	46	48	55	61	54	51	52	46	39	48	52	56
Total	3566	56	59	45	65	60	68	51	44	51	48	42	48	49	51