Hello Rodrigo

In a move that's sure to put Ramon Ortiz into a deep funk, the Cubs sent Ryan Buchter to Atlanta for veteran inning eater Rodrigo Lopez. I don't like the term inning eater, but it applies. He'll get you into the sixth inning, throw strikes and get hit hard.

Lopez is a 35-year old native of Mexico who has been in pro ball since 1993. The Padres signed him in 1995 after he had been pitching as a teenager in the Mexican League. 16 years later the Cubs will be his seventh big league franchise and sixth Major League team. The Braves gave him a shot this Spring, but that ended after a March 31 exhibition start in Turner Field.

The Cubs faced Lopez twice in recent years, once seeing him in a Phillies uniform and more recently as a Diamondback. So this is now the third annual Rodrigo Lopez post. Really not much to say, as we already learned about his new fifth pitch (curveball) last year.

Click images to enlarge. PITCHf/x data is from MLBAM but the pitch classifications are my own.

On a scouting scale, derived from PITCHf/x metrics moving 10 points per standard deviation from the mean, Lopez is a 65 strike thrower but 35 bat misser--his stuff is not very good, but it's in the zone.

Contact quality is another problem, he's around 40-45. Clearly a step below average, the ball is usually in the air but, well, let's just say it's not like pop flies are dominating the mix. Whatever the type, his nkSLG adds up to .586 and 9.7% of his flies and liners clear the outfield fence.

Let's put that together. Throws strikes. Pitches to contact. Gets hit harder than average.

Lopez's fastball is his best pitch, rating closer to average. That's right, his best pitch is his meh fastball. Put this guy out there back-to-back with Doug Davis and enjoy!

Buchter moves on to his third organization, having been acquired from the Nationals for Matt Avery in 2008. The lefty has averaged 10.7 strike outs and 6.0 walks per nine innings in his minor league career.

This makes the cost of acquiring Lopez seem very low. The cost of feeding Lopez innings is another question.

Aww Gee Whiz

Here's a graph and data dump on Dillon Gee, the Mets starter for tonight's game. Of course his name makes me think of old number 10.

I'm too stunned by Tuesday's blowout by the Cubs to do much more than this. It's Casey Coleman against Gee, hopefully nobody gets hurt. And hopefully the weather cooperates.

Actual values:

Pitch	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
Change-up	151	82.8	0.530	0.388	0.263	2.0	0.457	0.439	0.339	0.500	54%	25%	18%	3.6%	8.3%
Curveball	53	73.6	0.358	0.421	0.263	2.1	0.415	0.323	0.611	0.833	17%	17%	50%	16.7%	25.0%
4seam FB	150	90.3	0.413	0.194	0.468	3.9	0.507	0.243	0.380	0.619	29%	10%	43%	19.0%	9.1%
2seam FB	165	90.3	0.406	0.060	0.388	1.5	0.503	0.293	0.444	0.216	54%	11%	22%	13.5%	0.0%
Slider	27	81.6	0.407	0.000	0.364	2.8	0.407	0.313	0.500	0.286	29%	43%	29%	0.0%	0.0%
Total	546	86.1	0.438	0.230	0.356	2.2	0.478	0.326	0.413	0.424	44%	17%	27%	11.1%	6.8%

League relative (100=avg)

Pitch	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
Change-up	151	100	106	131	90	56	104	130	131	107	110	139	69	55	114
Curveball	53	96	92	150	83	100	90	117	131	170	34	89	200	288	347
4seam FB	150	98	96	118	108	229	91	107	105	116	81	48	126	202	126
2seam FB	165	99	95	50	102	79	93	122	120	44	104	58	92	307	0
Slider	27	97	86	0	116	117	84	98	143	58	64	253	100	0	0
Total	546	98	99	110	95	105	92	122	116	84	98	89	93	150	96

League relative by z-score*10 (50=avg)

Pitch	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
Change-up	151	50	54	59	46	62	52	63	59	48	54	39	42	45	48
Curveball	53	44	45	64	43	50	44	56	66	28	24	53	75	70	21
4seam FB	150	47	48	53	55	33	43	52	52	45	45	67	59	67	47
2seam FB	165	49	47	44	51	53	45	56	58	68	52	62	48	66	61
Slider	27	46	40	19	56	47	40	49	66	63	37	10	50	35	63
Total	546	45	48	54	45	47	37	66	64	59	49	56	47	61	51

Samardzija Devolves

Tracking Jeff Samardzija's development from college wide receiver to big league reliever has been somewhat of a hobby over the past few years. From figuring out what he threw, to the change from slider to curve and, most recently, optimism over the curveball/cutter combo.

I started to see signs of what I would call "progress" earlier this year--in terms of his stuff. His curveball got some depth and he was working on a cutter.

Here you can see which pitch he was throwing over time. Barely any overlap.

Now the Shark hunt brings us full circle. His cutter has slowly become slower. Barely a cutter and more of a slutter from the get-go, it now quacks like a slider, walks like a slider and should just be called a slider.

These three graphs compare each of his three pitches to his fastballs from the same game. With one exception, the fastballs are four-seamers (click the image to enlarge). The timelines have been shifted so it's Day 0 for each pitch on the left. As shown above, they didn't actually overlap like this.

The speed and movement relationships between his sliders and fastballs of old look no different than those of his cutter and fastball of new. The gradual change in the cutter is interesting, as it began slowing down and sinking more, as opposed to the "new pitch" events that can be pinpointed in the past.

Now we've got a guy who rarely throws a sinker (despite early season flashes of it), has settled on a splitter for his offspeed pitch, and has gone full circle with the breaking pitch.

Finally, we can say Samardzija is a reliever with a fastball/slider/splitter instead of saying he is the Cubs' best third down option. Which is still true.

Mets Better Than They Look, Cubs Worse, Notes on Niese

The Mets are in town as the Cubs return home from a 3-4 trip that sure seemed a lot worse than that. The North Siders are coming home without the services of Marlon Byrd for the foreseeable future, opening the door for Tyler Colvin's return ... but Hendry and company chose door number two, Lou Montanez.

The former first round pick joins Tony Campana and Reed Johnson, giving the Cubs three (below) replacement level outfielders. Sorry, but Colvin should have a spot. This is not a contending team, unless you count trying to stay closer to the Pirates than the Astros as a race of some kind.

Pending roster moves could include Matt Garza to the 15-day DL (to make room for Montanez on the 25-man roster) and Andrew Cashner to the 60-day DL (to make room for Montanez on the 40-man roster) (update: Brian Schlitter was moved to the 60-day instead...yes, he's a Cub again because his injury allowed the Yankees to reverse their waiver claim). Did I mention Jeff Baker's groin injury? The only remaining question seems to be will Bobby Scales bat lead-off or clean-up in June.

While the Cubs come apart on the field, the Mets are coming apart from the front office. They've actually played pretty well since a being 5-13 on April 20. So a 17-11 stretch (including two straight losses to the Yankees this weekend) should be the story as this team arrives from New York, not Fred Wilpon's musings.

Jonathon Niese gets game one for the Metropolitans. It will be career start 48 for the righty from Ohio. 2010 was his first full season in the majors for the ground ball pitcher. Niese started showing signs of missing bats (.2 whiff rate in 2010 was nearly league average) but has seemingly reverted to a pitch-to-contact guy (.16 whiff) with extreme ground ball tendencies (52% in 2010).

In "+" metrics (relative to a league average of 100), Niese's 2011 ground ball rate is 116. Equally impressive is his IWZ+ of 112 (he's in the wide zone roughly 58% of the time, three 'seasons' running).

The small shifts in pitch mix from 2010 to 2011 seem to corroborate the outcomes.

Once Every Century: Red Sox f/x Preview

Interleague play, love it or hate it. Either way, might as well enjoy the Cubs visiting Fenway Park for the first time since the 1918 World Series. Saturday's game will feature throwback uniforms to mark the occasion.

The Red Sox are whittling down their pitching stock, resulting in spot starts for Alfredo Aceves on Saturday and ageless knuckleballer Tim Wakefield on Sunday. Big Z will face Aceves in retro-togs and Matt Garza will offer primetime contrast to Wakefield's floater on Sunday night.

Friday's match-up is a bit of a reverse, with the Cubs reaching into pitching depth they didn't even have in March and Boston sending Jon Lester, who looks every bit the ace. An interesting twist and storyline emerges when you scan your memory for background on Lester and Doug Davis. Both are cancer survivors.

The Red Sox rotation isn't the only place where injuries have lurked. Wakefield and Aceves leave holes to go along with the DL-sized spots left by Bobby Jenks and Danny Wheeler. Hideki Okajima was designated for assignment on the eve of this series.

That's five relief pitchers out of seven somehow out of the bullpen. Closer Jonathan Papelbon and set-up man Daniel Bard remain and are joined by such luminaries as Matt Albers, Scott Atchison, and the now side-arming Rich Hill. Added to the roster in time for the series were Michael Bowden (called-up from the farm) and erstwhile Rockie Franklin Morales (acquired for cash and PTBNL).

Meet the starters. Wakefield throws a slow knuckleball, too, which is lumped in with the majority.

I haven't done full break-downs on the relievers, so Albers's sinkers and fastballs aren't split. Same for Bard and Morales (who throws two breaking pitches, also not split). Hill's sinkers and heaters are split apart, but the arm angles make it look a little strange. And there may be some two-seam sinkers in the side-arm mix that are still labeled four-seam. Wtvr.

The following numbers are a rate stat (whiffs per swing, pitches in wide zone per pitches thrown, ground balls per ball in play) converted to z-scores and then the scouting scale (50+10*z). Click to sort.

Pitcher	Whiff	IWZ	GB
Papelbon	63	47	42
Lester	54	47	57
Albers	46	31	58
Bard	59	52	54
Hill	50	53	39
Morales	47	46	44
Aceves	48	62	43
Atchison	42	49	51
Wakefield	46	59	40
Bowden	49	48	34

Volstad f/x

The Cubs actually won. It contained ugly play, but Wednesday night in Florida ended up being a nice change of pace from the Ohio debacle.

Casey Coleman will match-up against fellow Floridian Chris Volstad in the second and final game of the series. Volstad, a former first round pick, will tower over Coleman in terms of height and stuff.

Volstad's most memorable moment in the Major Leagues came when he dodged a punch form Nyjer Morgan. It wasn't the dodge so much as the running clothesline delivered by Gaby Sanchez that was memorable. Especially for Morgan.

Volstad is a ground ball pitcher, and he's been throwing more sinkers (two-seam fastballs) and fewer heaters (four-seam fastballs) over time. A slider was added to the mix in 2010, bringing him to the standard five-pitch arsenal.

Peruse the numbers, a league relative version is below. And a some more charts.

Year	Type	PT	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
2008	CH	114	83.8	.544	.290	.339	4.7	.439	.391	.205	.261	65%	22%	4%	8.7%	.0%
2008	CU	315	79.7	.378	.286	.361	1.7	.527	.282	.524	.262	69%	14%	14%	2.4%	.0%
2008	FA	410	91.1	.420	.116	.349	2.4	.551	.174	.305	.478	45%	17%	28%	9.8%	4.8%
2008	SI	451	91.1	.435	.138	.316	1.9	.494	.281	.422	.364	55%	19%	20%	6.5%	2.4%
2009	CH	413	84.3	.538	.351	.243	4.7	.380	.402	.238	.489	49%	17%	24%	10.0%	13.5%
2009	CU	489	79.9	.370	.249	.298	2.3	.487	.223	.480	.463	62%	13%	24%	.0%	6.5%
2009	FA	744	92.4	.410	.121	.416	1.6	.577	.238	.419	.603	40%	17%	35%	7.1%	14.9%
2009	SI	914	92.3	.428	.115	.432	2.3	.484	.263	.356	.667	54%	20%	23%	2.8%	14.3%
2010	CH	353	84.4	.482	.247	.300	4.8	.368	.345	.230	.403	53%	17%	25%	5.2%	3.1%
2010	CU	319	78.5	.436	.129	.331	2.7	.524	.230	.326	.413	56%	20%	21%	2.7%	3.2%
2010	FA	546	91.5	.408	.112	.457	1.7	.592	.211	.402	.542	26%	19%	48%	7.3%	7.8%
2010	SI	1093	91.6	.390	.092	.376	1.5	.566	.251	.448	.498	52%	20%	26%	2.6%	6.8%
2010	SL	407	84.9	.469	.257	.325	2.8	.464	.307	.317	.513	55%	11%	28%	6.3%	9.7%
2011	CH	89	84.5	.371	.273	.273	6.0	.315	.246	.381	.133	47%	7%	33%	13.3%	.0%
2011	CU	41	78.8	.439	.333	.222	2.3	.415	.292	.429	.250	50%	25%	25%	.0%	.0%
2011	FA	117	90.9	.410	.146	.458	2.0	.564	.235	.397	1.053	32%	26%	42%	.0%	23.1%
2011	SI	271	91.2	.387	.105	.305	1.7	.539	.208	.438	.565	55%	24%	21%	.0%	3.6%
2011	SL	132	84.4	.447	.322	.271	2.1	.470	.343	.404	.542	42%	17%	33%	8.3%	8.3%
ALL	CH	969	84.3	.503	.302	.277	4.9	.377	.364	.242	.405	52%	17%	23%	8.3%	7.4%
ALL	CU	1164	79.4	.393	.225	.322	2.2	.505	.243	.449	.396	61%	16%	21%	1.4%	3.8%
ALL	FA	1817	91.7	.412	.119	.416	1.8	.575	.215	.388	.578	37%	18%	37%	7.5%	10.9%
ALL	SI	2729	91.7	.410	.109	.378	1.8	.524	.256	.415	.532	53%	20%	23%	3.1%	8.0%
ALL	SL	539	84.8	.464	.272	.312	2.6	.466	.316	.338	.519	52%	13%	29%	6.7%	9.3%
ALL	ALL	7218	88.2	.424	.173	.358	2.1	.510	.268	.392	.505	50%	18%	27%	4.9%	8.4%
2008	ALL	1290	87.7	.426	.180	.339	2.1	.516	.261	.393	.379	55%	18%	20%	7.2%	3.0%
2009	ALL	2560	88.7	.429	.187	.368	2.2	.495	.277	.391	.582	50%	18%	27%	4.9%	13.2%
2010	ALL	2718	88.1	.423	.151	.366	2.0	.525	.267	.388	.483	49%	18%	29%	4.3%	6.5%
2011	ALL	650	88.1	.405	.198	.316	2.1	.491	.254	.418	.563	48%	21%	28%	3.1%	7.9%

Year	Type	PT	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
2008	CH	114	101	108	98	116	131	100	116	79	56	133	122	15	132	0
2008	CU	315	104	97	102	114	81	114	102	113	53	138	74	56	41	0
2008	FA	410	99	98	71	81	141	98	77	84	90	125	81	82	104	67
2008	SI	451	100	101	116	83	100	91	117	114	74	106	100	83	148	36
2009	CH	413	102	107	118	83	131	87	119	92	104	100	94	92	152	185
2009	CU	489	104	95	89	94	110	105	81	103	94	124	68	96	0	90
2009	FA	744	100	96	74	96	94	103	105	116	113	111	81	103	76	207
2009	SI	914	101	100	97	114	121	89	109	96	135	104	105	96	64	213
2010	CH	353	102	96	83	103	133	84	102	89	86	108	94	96	79	42
2010	CU	319	102	112	46	104	129	113	83	70	84	112	105	84	47	44
2010	FA	546	99	95	68	106	100	106	93	111	101	72	90	141	78	108
2010	SI	1093	101	91	77	99	79	104	104	121	101	100	105	108	59	101
2010	SL	407	101	100	81	103	117	95	96	91	104	122	65	97	74	124
2011	CH	89	102	74	92	93	167	72	73	148	28	96	39	127	202	0
2011	CU	41	102	113	119	70	110	90	106	92	51	100	132	100	0	0
2011	FA	117	99	96	89	106	118	101	104	110	197	89	124	124	0	321
2011	SI	271	100	90	88	80	89	99	86	118	114	106	126	88	0	54
2011	SL	132	101	95	101	86	88	97	107	115	110	93	100	114	98	106
ALL	CH	969	102	100	102	95	136	86	108	94	87	106	94	88	126	101
ALL	CU	1164	103	101	80	101	105	109	88	97	81	122	84	84	24	53
ALL	FA	1817	99	96	73	96	106	103	95	107	108	103	86	109	80	151
ALL	SI	2729	101	96	92	99	95	97	106	112	107	102	105	96	70	119
ALL	SL	539	101	99	85	99	108	96	98	97	105	116	76	100	79	119
ALL	ALL	7218	100	96	83	96	100	98	100	110	100	111	95	93	66	118
2008	ALL	1290	100	96	86	91	100	99	98	110	75	122	95	69	97	42
2009	ALL	2560	101	97	89	99	105	95	104	110	115	111	95	93	66	186
2010	ALL	2718	100	95	72	98	95	101	100	109	96	109	95	100	58	92
2011	ALL	650	100	91	95	85	100	94	95	117	112	107	111	97	42	111

Please Find Some Mojo in Florida (Nolasco f/x)

What a brutal stop in Cincinnati. The Cubs "embarrassed" Mike Quade on Monday, leading to a team meeting. Futility won over, as the Reds scored seven unearned runs in another cruddy loss.

Now it's off to Miami to face the Marlins, who are playing pretty good baseball. The Cubs will face Ricky Nolasco and Christopher Volstad and then head to Fenway for a three game weekend against the Red Sox.

In other words, things aren't getting easier. And Ryan Dempster (ex-Marlin) and Casey Coleman (Floridian) are targets of irrational, geography-driven expectations.

Nolasco has good stuff, a whole array of pitches. You can call his cutter a slider, his slider a curve, and his curve a slow curve. He throws a splitter and a fastball, along with a sinker and may be some straight changes along the way. I'll close my eyes and pretend he takes something of his fastball and walk away slowly.

The "sliders" that cap off the "curveballs" aren't always in the mix, 2011 being a season of just two "sliders" to date.

Did I mention he'll drop down to a lower arm slot? Extra fun.

Nolasco profiles as a swing-and-miss guy with fly ball tendencies. 2011, however, has seen a pick-up in his ground balls rate.

100+ SCALE (proportion of league average)

Season	Pitch	PT	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
2008	ALL	3137	98	108	105	102	76	112	113	102	103	87	100	103	147	128
2009	ALL	3024	99	106	111	107	90	104	115	97	115	87	116	114	82	113
2010	ALL	2336	99	107	111	98	76	102	118	96	120	87	111	110	112	132
2011	ALL	715	98	108	112	88	86	97	141	114	105	102	111	103	46	113
ALL	ALL	9212	99	107	109	102	81	106	118	100	111	89	111	107	109	123

As usual, Nolasco isn't walking many guys, but he's going out of the zone (IWZ) more often while fooling batters in and out of the zone more often (Watch and Chase, respectively). Put it all together, and Nolasco is looking as effective as he was two or three years ago.

Garza and Volquez Rematch, Scott Maine Recalled

The Reds and Cubs will send out the same pitchers they used against each other on May 6 in Wrigley Field. Matt Garza was on the wrong end of things against Edinson Volquez while defending his home field. So Volquez will be looking to do the same as his team and sweep a foe in a two-game set. Yea, false drama.

The Cubs made a few roster moves, sending Tyler Colvin and Marcos Mateo to Iowa and calling-up Scott Maine and Tony Campana. Maine was with the Cubs briefly in 2010 (93 mph fastball, 85 mph change, 80 mph curve) and adds a left-handed option to the bullpen.

---

Garza and Volquez Pitch Selections

Volquez v Cubs 5/6/11	#	Fastball	Sinker	Change	Curve
Aramis Ramirez	6	50%	17%	33%	0%
Alfonso Soriano	13	8%	23%	38%	31%
Carlos Pena	14	64%	0%	36%	0%
Marlon Byrd	11	36%	27%	18%	18%
Geovany Soto	10	20%	10%	40%	30%
Darwin Barney	13	31%	23%	15%	31%
Matt Garza	4	50%	0%	0%	50%
Kosuke Fukudome	11	64%	0%	27%	9%
Starlin Castro	16	50%	6%	31%	13%

Garza v Reds 5/6/11	#	Fastball	Sinker	Change	Curve	Slider
Edgar Renteria	11	9%	36%	0%	18%	36%
Ramon Hernandez	9	33%	22%	11%	22%	11%
Brandon Phillips	10	30%	10%	10%	20%	30%
Jonny Gomes	13	38%	23%	23%	0%	15%
Edinson Volquez	5	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Drew Stubbs	8	63%	0%	0%	38%	0%
Jay Bruce	9	22%	11%	0%	33%	33%
Paul Janish	9	33%	22%	0%	0%	44%
Joey Votto	12	50%	17%	17%	8%	8%

Double Dip Road Trip Opener

Following a split it what turned into a 1.67 game series against the Giants, the Cubs are starting another short series tonight This two game set is as-scheduled against the Reds in Cincinnati. Same plan in Florida, two games and out the door. From there it's off to Fenway for interleague play.

Carlos Zambrano's tilt with Tim Lincecum was washed-out, moving Big Z into tonight's match-up with Homer Bailey. Bailey is making his third start of the season, coming off the DL to join the rotation in May. The Cubs will look to change the lanky Texan's fortunes.

Bailey's two starts were outstanding, totaling 13 innings with 12 strike outs and just one walk. Opponents have managed just one run on nine hits over the two starts. He's also thrown a ton of sliders in the process.

The differences in Bailey's pitch mix over this two games and his total PITCHf/x history is easy to see (pitch classifications are my own).

The sliders have been plentiful and effective. The 515 Bailey threw before 2011 yielded a whiff rate of .23 -- a big jump, from a league relative "+" rate of 72 all the way to 125. That's where league average is 100 and each point away if 1% of the average above or below average. If you prefer the scouting scale and z-scores, where 50 is average and 10 points is one standard deviation, he went from 40 to 60 whiff.

So, replace your pitches-to-contact template with a bat-misser template before watching tonight's game.

Timmy Tables

This should be sortable ... and, yes, I know Tim Lincecum has more than one fastball. Raw numbers and league-relative ("+" style) for each pitch type (my own classifications) and season.

Yr	Type	#	MPH	Swg	Whf	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB	LD	FB	PU	HR/FL
07	Change	175	84.1	.514	.467	.267	6.7	.377	.367	.231	.250	54%	8%	33%	4.2%	0.0%
07	Change		101	102	157	91	186	86	109	90	53	110	44	127	64	0
07	Curves	184	8.2	.391	.431	.222	1.9	.353	.361	.545	.600	68%	8%	24%	0.0%	12.5%
07	Curve		104	101	154	70	90	76	131	117	122	136	42	96	0	174
07	Fastball	712	94.4	.413	.119	.422	1.6	.548	.276	.404	.511	44%	16%	31%	8.9%	6.3%
07	Fastballs		102	96	73	97	94	98	122	112	96	122	76	91	95	88
07	ALL	1071	9.3	.426	.237	.360	1.9	.486	.313	.401	.489	49%	14%	30%	7.1%	6.2%
07	ALL		103	96	113	97	90	93	117	112	97	109	74	103	96	87
08	Change	639	84.3	.548	.451	.246	4.5	.438	.362	.222	.500	52%	21%	22%	5.7%	4.4%
08	Change		102	109	152	84	125	100	107	86	107	106	117	85	86	60
08	Curve	429	79.7	.368	.405	.291	2.4	.445	.290	.510	.458	54%	17%	27%	2.1%	9.5%
08	Curve		104	95	145	92	114	96	105	110	93	108	89	108	36	132
08	Fastball	2264	94.8	.444	.182	.470	1.8	.572	.252	.352	.446	40%	20%	32%	8.0%	2.7%
08	Fastball		103	104	111	109	106	102	111	98	84	111	95	94	85	38
08	Slider	112	84	.536	.483	.250	4.2	.411	.379	.211	.313	44%	19%	19%	18.8%	0.0%
08	Slider		100	114	151	79	175	84	118	60	63	98	112	66	221	0
08	ALL	3444	9.6	.457	.276	.394	2.1	.526	.287	.345	.454	44%	20%	29%	7.3%	3.5%
08	ALL		103	103	132	106	100	101	107	97	90	98	105	100	99	49
09	Change	719	83.8	.601	.440	.273	4.2	.409	.471	.213	.419	58%	13%	25%	4.0%	6.4%
09	Change		101	120	148	93	117	93	140	83	90	118	72	96	61	88
09	Curve	540	77.2	.320	.289	.301	1.9	.444	.213	.521	.324	51%	20%	23%	7.0%	0.0%
09	Curve		100	82	103	95	90	96	77	112	66	102	105	92	121	0
09	Fastball	1903	93.1	.383	.140	.442	1.4	.573	.198	.411	.475	43%	23%	28%	5.9%	3.9%
09	Fastballs		101	89	85	102	82	102	87	114	89	119	110	82	63	54
09	Slider	232	81.9	.539	.400	.280	2.8	.418	.444	.295	.325	43%	15%	30%	12.5%	5.6%
09	Slider		98	114	125	89	117	86	138	84	66	96	88	103	147	72
09	ALL	3394	87.8	.430	.269	.361	1.8	.507	.290	.389	.431	47%	20%	27%	6.1%	4.0%
09	ALL		100	97	129	97	86	98	109	109	86	104	105	93	82	56
10	Change	873	84.6	.624	.420	.284	3.9	.446	.467	.186	.509	58%	17%	20%	4.3%	6.6%
10	Change		102	124	141	97	108	102	139	72	109	118	94	77	65	90
10	Curve	424	78.2	.356	.205	.344	1.7	.479	.235	.497	.515	41%	32%	22%	4.4%	5.4%
10	Curve		102	92	73	108	81	103	85	107	105	82	168	88	76	75
10	Fastball	1849	92	.392	.157	.439	1.5	.550	.213	.424	.500	45%	23%	28%	4.1%	6.8%
10	Fastball		100	92	96	101	88	98	94	117	94	125	110	82	44	94
10	Slider	237	83	.511	.240	.388	4.0	.447	.336	.275	.444	64%	9%	22%	4.4%	7.1%
10	Slider		99	108	75	123	167	92	105	79	90	142	53	76	52	91
10	ALL	3383	87.7	.456	.262	.371	1.9	.507	.299	.373	.500	50%	21%	25%	4.2%	6.5%
10	ALL		100	103	125	99	90	98	112	104	99	111	111	86	57	92
11	Change	98	85.9	.531	.538	.308	8.2	.327	.379	.143	.500	50%	13%	25%	12.5%	33.3%
11	Change		104	106	181	105	228	75	112	55	107	102	72	96	189	456
11	Curve	58	79.2	.310	.278	.333	1.5	.431	.182	.545	.143	71%	14%	14%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Curve		103	80	99	105	71	93	66	117	29	142	74	56	0	0
11	Fastball	488	93.7	.398	.186	.443	1.5	.516	.225	.393	.472	51%	17%	25%	6.9%	3.3%
11	Fastball		102	93	113	102	88	92	99	109	88	142	81	74	73	46
11	Slider	247	86.3	.526	.354	.308	3.6	.478	.349	.235	.386	59%	20%	20%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Slider		103	112	111	98	150	98	109	67	78	131	118	69	0	0
11	ALL	891	89.8	.442	.292	.376	2.1	.479	.278	.349	.427	55%	18%	23%	4.6%	3.8%
11	ALL		102	100	140	101	100	92	104	98	85	122	95	79	62	54
ALL	Change	2504	84.3	.587	.440	.272	4.4	.424	.430	.205	.466	56%	16%	23%	4.7%	6.0%
ALL	Change		102	117	148	93	122	97	128	79	100	114	89	88	71	82
ALL	Curve	1635	78.5	.350	.316	.301	2.0	.443	.257	.514	.438	51%	21%	23%	4.1%	5.1%
ALL	Curve		102	90	113	95	95	96	93	111	89	102	111	92	71	71
ALL	Fastball	7216	93.5	.408	.160	.449	1.6	.561	.228	.394	.477	43%	21%	29%	6.5%	4.5%
ALL	Fastball		101	95	98	104	94	100	100	109	89	119	100	85	69	63
ALL	Slider	828	83.8	.527	.353	.314	3.5	.443	.377	.260	.379	54%	15%	23%	6.9%	3.6%
ALL	Slider		100	112	111	100	146	91	117	74	77	120	88	79	81	46
ALL	ALL	12183	88.9	.445	.268	.375	2.0	.509	.293	.370	.463	48%	20%	27%	5.9%	4.8%
ALL	ALL		101	100	128	101	95	98	110	104	92	107	105	93	80	68

Another Rubber Match! Casey and Jaime

It what feels like a late Summer series, the Cubs and Cardinals have split a pair this week. Thursday brings more warm air and a day game to Wrigley Field. Young arms Jaime Garcia and Casey Coleman get the call. Check out the posts earlier in the week (scroll down, or see the nav on the right side) for some charts (every pitcher) and more background on these numbers.

Like OPS+, these are league relative values.

JAIME

Type	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
CH	100	83	149	77	125	86	83	127	66	118	83	77	94	59
CU	97	78	117	117	124	87	85	127	78	94	137	60	203	99
FA	98	104	67	92	100	99	107	103	97	153	95	56	51	126
SI	100	101	130	92	89	105	92	98	73	106	95	88	118	90
SL	102	121	123	96	117	89	139	71	80	136	118	52	45	35
	99	100	119	90	105	96	106	103	80	124	100	66	72	89

Garcia may be average with his velocity, but he seems to miss bats and avoids the dangerous fly balls. He needs a good infield behind him, and he will get BABIP'd to death on occasion no matter what. His high whiff rate mitigates those risks.

2011

Type	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
CH	99	90	174	71	119	87	96	120	27	102	106	50	285	0
CU	95	66	165	97	152	76	77	152	68	66	174	0	574	0
FA	98	95	52	78	100	102	93	108	72	147	114	53	63	0
SI	99	111	182	103	95	108	117	98	86	112	53	138	0	176
SL	102	126	131	93	100	78	154	69	87	127	112	66	56	0
	98	104	146	86	110	93	119	103	73	120	95	76	82	62

Early on this year, Garcia has found the zone less but has also increased the whiffs and continued the batted ball trends evident in his overall line.


CASEY

Type	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
CH	99	103	65	105	117	93	102	79	103	98	100	104	102	101
CU	100	98	94	66	95	112	66	92	75	34	142	172	229	0
FA	98	58	38	108	147	85	20	113	37	92	157	79	71	0
FC	95	110	156	87	130	122	122	134	0	0	0	248	392	0
SI	98	92	55	109	111	104	61	95	98	98	111	96	107	67
SL	95	76	122	97	225	80	46	84	92	40	0	155	428	256
	98	91	67	98	119	99	69	96	89	96	111	97	105	65

Clearly not a power pitcher, Casey doesn't get many strikes called or swinging. The best part of his batted ball distrubtion are the pop-ups, which are even more evident in 2011. Coleman does not have a huge margin of error. The pop-up is a nice weapon, but his inability to miss bats makes him vulnerable when his command is absent.


2011

Type	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
CH	100	112	92	109	125	97	99	32	178	67	156	127	85	125
CU	99	97	63	74	62	115	86	108	122	20	158	160	345	0
FA	98	58	0	51	324	74	0	55	54	81	138	85	152	0
SI	98	80	97	121	121	98	45	99	82	79	126	113	184	79
SL	94	82	111	112	242	75	56	71	162	44	0	207	235	427
	98	86	85	102	129	94	61	92	108	71	132	110	141	96

Also evident in 2011, line drives. Some of those will mellow down into ground balls (whether in truth or in tag) over time. The low swing rate combined with the low whiff rate is one thing, but stack on the lack of "watches" (takes in the zone), it's clear Coleman isn't fooling too many batters.

Garza and Westbrook - Relative Metrics

Quick post ... same as yesterday but I bolded the "League Matched" row that is the roll-up of all pitches (that's your top-line look, as it were).



Garza Type Matched ALL

Type	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
CH	103	86	78	118	100	100	70	101	125	86	106	112	153	166
CU	99	81	81	129	95	99	78	121	94	102	89	108	84	51
FA	102	110	95	108	106	94	122	84	83	89	95	103	137	81
SI	103	108	111	110	147	84	116	75	107	88	105	108	182	122
SL	103	115	113	96	150	92	130	81	130	98	135	93	76	165

Garza Type Matched 2011

Type	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
CH	103	103	96	73	108	96	101	74	122	98	106	127	0	0
CU	100	80	89	157	67	115	78	127	145	86	153	116	0	0
FA	102	109	96	115	76	106	139	95	90	133	124	59	69	0
SI	103	86	118	110	137	67	90	92	85	102	111	46	359	0
SL	104	130	161	78	142	70	172	78	141	127	153	59	0	128

Garza League Matched ALL

Type	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
CH	97	98	111	92	171	84	89	73	116	93	100	100	136	170
CU	87	72	108	110	95	88	81	157	92	113	89	93	66	52
FA	107	106	74	125	86	102	104	85	88	71	105	121	174	82
SI	107	105	63	112	133	88	104	78	106	102	105	90	108	115
SL	98	122	173	81	171	86	156	79	127	98	121	93	88	182
	103	104	92	111	110	93	109	89	101	89	105	103	131	110

Garza League Matched 2011

Type	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
CH	97	117	137	57	186	81	127	53	113	107	100	114	0	0
CU	87	70	120	134	67	103	80	165	142	96	153	100	0	0
FA	106	105	76	133	62	114	118	96	95	107	137	69	88	0
SI	106	84	67	112	124	70	81	96	84	118	111	38	214	0
SL	100	138	246	66	162	65	207	76	138	127	137	59	0	141
	102	106	134	102	90	91	132	99	108	111	126	72	70	27

Westbrook Type Matched ALL

Type	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
CH	97	101	112	112	303	54	124	73	79	100	94	115	50	71
CU	104	111	127	64	90	101	130	103	76	106	79	120	40	49
FA	99	102	36	122	76	119	102	139	0	119	67	126	0	0
FC	99	98	79	120	157	92	81	84	110	109	70	107	105	179
SI	100	99	79	108	89	104	89	98	101	117	89	79	73	131

Westbrook Type Matched 2011

Type	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
CH	96	105	104	132	944	43	134	35	71	118	44	127	0	274
CU	103	131	123	20	114	79	172	92	129	116	168	20	91	0
FA	98	133	76	115	88	140	147	76	0	0	157	197	0	0
FC	98	97	147	92	126	88	106	96	132	120	60	89	139	0
SI	99	94	100	105	79	99	101	114	103	131	74	71	34	149

Westbrook League Matched ALL

Type	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
CH	91	114	159	88	519	45	157	53	73	109	89	103	45	73
CU	91	97	170	55	90	90	134	134	74	118	79	103	31	49
FA	104	98	28	142	62	128	87	140	0	96	74	148	0	0
FC	99	106	81	123	171	94	83	70	107	107	74	100	120	159
SI	104	95	45	110	81	108	80	102	99	136	89	66	43	124
	100	100	82	102	105	96	103	99	93	127	89	79	50	110

Westbrook League Matched 2011

Type	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
CH	91	119	147	103	1619	36	169	25	66	129	42	114	0	282
CU	90	115	165	17	114	70	178	120	125	129	168	17	72	0
FA	103	129	60	134	71	151	125	76	0	0	174	231	0	0
FC	98	105	150	95	138	89	108	80	128	118	63	83	159	0
SI	103	91	57	107	71	103	91	118	101	151	74	59	20	141
	99	100	101	94	100	90	120	105	103	136	84	66	46	103