Cubs f/x: June 2011

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Giants Return

Barry Zito is coming off the DL to make his first start since April. Ryan Vogelsong opens the twin bill with his second appearance against the Cubs. Vogelsong will face Doug Davis and Rodrigo Lopez will get the ball from Mike Quade for the nightcap.

Tim Lincecum has matured/developed/changed, but it is still a power game. He'll face Ryan Dempster. The final game of the set will feature Matt Cain and Carlos Zambrano.

Images are clickable. Pitch speeds shown in parentheses are 2011 only. I'm lazy, but I'll add some notes and what-not during the series. I'll annoyingly retweet the link when I do.

Ryan Vogelsong
Fastball (92), Sinker (92), Curveball (77), Cutter (88), Change-up (84)

Barry Zito
Fastball (84), Sinker (84), Curveball (70), Change-up (75), Slider (81)

Tim Lincecum
Fastball* (94), Change-up (85), Slider (86), Sinker* (93), Curveball (80)

*both are variants of two-seam fastballs, neither sinks but one tails the other cuts.

Matt Cain
Fastball (92), Change-up (86), Curveball (79), Slider (86), Sinker (92)

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Middle Game in KC - Danny Duffy Preview

Danny Duffy will face Carlos Zambrano in just a few minutes. The skinny on Duffy: high three-quarter delivery, left-handed, throws hard, rookie. He was a 3rd round pick in 2007, right out of High School.

Level       IP   G   GS
Rookie     46.1  15  13
Low-A      81.1  17  17
High-A    140.2  27  27
Double-A   39.2   7   7
Triple-A   36.0   7   7
Majors     34.0   7   7

Kinda green.

His Spring Training PITCHf/x data from 2009 and 2010 don't show a slider, but he is throwing one this year. This goes with his curveball and change-up, and of course his bread-and-butter four-seam fastball. I haven't ruled out (or in) two-seamers in the margins.

Although Duffy was a high-K low-BB pitcher in the minor leagues, he has struggled since his promotion. But his last outing was well in line with his minor league numbers.

Gcar	Date	Tm		Opp	Rslt	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	BF	Pit	GB	PU	GSc	SB	CS	PO
1	May 18	KCR		TEX	L,4-5	4.0	4	2	2	6	4	0	0	21	94	6	1	44	4	0	0
2	May 24	KCR	@	BAL	L,3-5	5.1	5	2	2	3	6	0	0	23	97	5	0	53	2	0	0
3	May 29	KCR	@	TEX	L,6-7	6.0	5	3	3	1	4	2	0	23	95	7	0	53	0	1	0
June		Tm		Opp	Rslt	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	BF	Pit	GB	PU	GSc	SB	CS	PO
4	Jun 3	KCR		MIN	L,2-5	5.0	7	3	3	3	3	1	0	23	96	9	1	41	1	1	1
5	Jun 8	KCR		TOR	L,8-9	4.0	8	5	5	4	1	1	0	22	96	8	1	23	1	2	2
6	Jun 14	KCR	@	OAK	W,7-4	6.0	4	2	2	4	2	1	0	26	104	6	3	54	0	0	0
7	Jun 19	KCR	@	STL	L,4-5	3.2	6	2	2	1	9	0	0	18	90	3	0	49	0	0	0
		KCR				34.0	39	19	19	22	29	5	0	156

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/25/2011.

Friday, June 24, 2011

Playing the Slots with Bruce Chen

Bruce Chen is coming of the disabled list* to face the Cubs tonight. Chen has been with the Royals for a couple of years, they're his eighth team and approximately third life in baseball.

*left lat strain per numerous Google search results

Chen was a free agent from Panama and signed by the Braves way back in 1993. He's now 34-years old, and the hard-throwing left-handed prospect is a distant memory. He remains left-handed.

These days Chen throws in the 80s--topping out over 90--and likes to cut the ball and change arm angles.

He seems to (for the most part) throw a two-seam fastball and a curveball from a low position to lefties but just the sinker from down low to righties. The higher position includes a four-seam fastball, the curveball, a change-up and the cutter.

He'll occasionally mix the grip/angle pairs but he's seemingly settling on these. Oh, sometimes the curve or cutter may look like a slider, but it's been a pretty clear separation since April.
He is just of the DL so maybe he changed things up (again) while rehabbing.

Now for Chen 2011 in pictures.

For the flat view (side and top) I made the curveball bubble bigger for the low-angle pitches to lefties. For the catcher's views you'll have to cope with the rudimentary format and use your imagination a little.

Put it all together and you have a guy who gets a lot of fly balls, throws a medium number of strikes and doesn't miss many bats.

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Mark Buehrle: World Class Nibbler

To appreciate Mark Buehrle you really need to do one thing--look at where he puts the ball. To set the stage, however, a quick refresher on his stuff.

First and foremost, he does not throw hard. He throws five pitches--the rare slider (crammed into his cutter and curve below) and possibly a second look on his change-up (crammed into his change-up and cutter below) aside.

His pitches can be a pain to classify at times, but it's worth the effort to get to the heat maps shown below.

Fastball (FA)  87.0 mph
Cutter   (FC)  82.6
Sinker   (SI)  86.0
Change   (CH)  79.5
Curve    (CU)  71.6

Buehrle is throwing fewer sinkers these days, and fewer groundballs are coming as a result. His pop-up rate has increased, but that's for another day.

See what I mean?

Keep an Eye on Ben Wells

Ben Wells of the Boise Hawks will be on MiLB.tv Wednesday night. The Hawks' Opening Day starter gets the home opener, too.

Wells was selected by the Cubs in the 7th round of the 2010 draft and signed for $530,000. Barely 18 now (born 9/10/92), the big righty could be a fun one to watch as he develops. A graduate of Bryant High School and a native of Alexander, Arkansas, he's at least 6'4" and 220 lbs. He is listed at 6'1", but he's grown.

Both the money and talent say third round. Committed to Arkansas, he was going to be a Razorback and was far from a sure thing. Put it all together and the Cubs had good reason to go over slot (which is normal, anyway).

"Ben, who grew to about 6-4 in the last six months was clocked at 95 miles per hour on his fastball late in the high school season. He was consistently around 92 or 93 with a knee-buckling slider and a developing split-finger for a change of pace."

"I only struck out six or seven and my pitch count was way down. I let them hit ground balls. That’s when I really felt like I developed a lot more as a pitcher."

His reputation also grew.

Perfect game in state 7-A final, with 92-94 FB, propelled stock upwards; was just in mid-80s earlier in year

He's a kid, just 17 when signed, but he seems mature at comfortable with himself in these interviews.

According to a high school bio his favorite subject was math and he likes tacos. And he enjoys pitching. A lot.

"I’m just trying now to throw to contact a lot because with my off-speed stuff and my fastball’s got a lot of run, I can get a lot of groundballs."

"I’ve been working on a change-up a lot. At the beginning of the season, I really wasn’t throwing it a whole lot. I was just fastball, slider, which was working fine but when you don’t have a third pitch like that, the batters can really get used to that. They can lay off your one off-speed pitch and just hit your fastballs. And, if you’re not locating either one of those, it’s going to raise your pitch count up a lot. So I’ve really been working hard on getting a change-up, locating it and being able to throw it when I want and being able to throw it for a strike every time. I started throwing it against Van Buren and that’s when everything kind of fell together that game."

Prospect gawking is always fun, and Wells should be one to keep watching. His first start wasn't bad, but wasn't great. He got through five innings, walked two and hit a batter. He also struck-out four and was credited with seven ground outs. Working like that could get him moving quickly.

Monday, June 20, 2011

Gavin Floyd's Subtle Changes

Crosstown series starts tonight at The Cell. Gavin Floyd is Ozzie's game one starter against Big Z.

Floyd's been a solid part of the White Sox rotation for four years now, even making ten starts back in 2007. His numbers are coming out just fine again, despite some slight changes in his pitch mix and results.

Year	Age	W	L	W-L%	ERA	GS	GF	CG	IP	ERA+	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2008	25	17	8	.680	3.84	33	0	1	206.1	119	8.3	1.3	3.1	6.3	2.07
2009	26	11	11	.500	4.06	30	0	1	193.0	116	8.3	1.0	2.8	7.6	2.76
2010	27	10	13	.435	4.08	31	0	1	187.1	106	9.6	0.7	2.8	7.3	2.60
2011	28	6	6	.500	3.94	13	1	1	89.0	102	8.5	0.9	2.2	6.7	3.00

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/20/2011.

After a two year period of missed bats, Floyd has dropped back towards 2008 levels. His ground ball rate has regressed, too, but he's getting getting better calls on takes.

Taking a look at his pitch types (Fastball and sinker around 92, slider and changed around 85, curveball about 80) you'll notice a drop in sinkers in 2011, down to 6% of his selection (19,11 and 16 percent in the preceding years).

OK, so less sinkers means fewer ground balls ... but why the missed bats? Floyd is actually down on all four of his pitches in this area.

Whiff Rates by Pitch Type, 2008-2011

Change-up
0.200
0.246
0.255
0.115

That's a precipitous drop.

Curveball
0.354
0.316
0.281
0.217

That looks like a steady trend.

Slider
0.307
0.327
0.415
0.296

Call that one good year.

Sinker
0.106
0.092
0.087
0.051

That's is more of a to-contact pitch and barely thrown this year, so wtvr.

Fastball
0.105
0.132
0.126
0.091

Again, a to-contact pitch (to a lesser extent), but this makes five out of five pitches dropping whiff rate in 2011.

The resulting drop in strikeouts is offset by the drop in free passes, but, as shown above, Floyd's league/park neutral performance (ERA+) has taken a dip. Again.

Friday, June 17, 2011

Yankee Staff Overview

Note: this will be updated a few times today as I add notes and charts. The overview and details on Freddy are up already -- HP 10am 6/17
Charts for Marquez and Logan up, adding Ayala who was left out by mistake -- HP 4pm 6/17
AJ and more -- HP 8am 6/18
Notes on yesterday's relievers added with their charts; last batch coming soon -- HP 9am 6/19

Interleague play round 2 starts today, the Cubs host the Yankees before a series against the White Sox on the South Side next week. The Yankee pitching staff has been in flux with lots of injuries and roster moves. As of Thursday night, this is who the Cubs expect to face over the three-game series at Wrigley.

Starters
Freddy Garcia Fastball (88 mph)/Cutter+ (81)/Splitter (80)/Change-up (81)/Curveball (72)/Slider+ (75)
A.J. Burnett Fastball (93)/Curveball (83)/Change-up (89)/Sinker (93)
CC Sabathia Fastball (94)/Slider* (82)/Sinker (93)/Change-up (87)

Closer
Mariano Rivera Cutter (91)/Sinker (92)

LHRP
Boone Logan Fastball (93)/Slider (82)/Sinker (93)/Change-up (89)

RHRP
Luis Ayala Sinker (92)/Cutter (86)/Fastball (92)/Change-up (85)/Slider (81)/Curveball (74)
Jeffrey Marquez Sinker (89)/Slider (85)/Curveball (75)/Fastball (89)/Change-up (81)
Hector Noesi Fastball (94)/Slider (85)/Curveball (79)/Sinker (93)/Change-up (85)
David Robertson Fastball (94)/Curveball (81)/Change-up (88)
Cory Wade Fastball (89)/Change-up (82)/Curveball (74)/Sinker**/Slider**

+Garcia's "cutter" is what you'd recognize as his "slider"; the short curves in the 70s took the slider label ... but those may be something else, too
*CC throws a few curveballs, too
**Wade has only thrown one of this pitch so far

The Cubs won't see starters Ivan Nova and Brian Gordon.

The bullpen is interesting--Mo is obviously one of the all time greats and you probably know Logan from his days with the White Sox. Otherwise a fairly anonymous group.

The first game of the series will feature Venezuelan veteran Freddy Garcia. Freddy has been in the big leagues since 1999 when he won 17 games and worked over 200 innings for the Mariners. Since his heyday with Seattle, Freddy has pitched for the White Sox (twice), Phillies, Tigers and now the Yankees. He hasn't thrown over 200 innings since 2006 but he did throw more innings in 2010 than he had over the previous three seasons combined.

If Garcia gets the first out of the sixth inning against the Cubs, take note. He'll have completed 2000 innings pitched in his career at that point.

Garcia's stuff isn't what it used to be, but he throws a ton of different pitches. Lefties see a whole mess of stuff, mostly off-speed. Freddy clearly likes to work the outer half of the plate, which is advisable with his velocity, or lack thereof. His fastball is running sub-90 and down towards 85 these days. Freddy will be facing Doug Davis, an opponent that will keep the radar gun readings in the same range.

First update: with Garcia struggling early, Marquez gets up in the pen in the bottom of the third. He made his big league debut last year for the White Sox.

Basically a sinker/slider guy, Marquez barely pushes the velocity up from the low readings Freddy and DD have been putting up so far. He'll throw some four-seam fastballs, but mostly the sinker, throws a change to lefties and mixes in curveballs. This is his second stint in the Yankee organization, he was originally drafted by them in the 41st round in 2004.

Marquez didn't get in, Logan could be next in the seventh if Garcia falters.

Garcia survived the seventh, but Logan is still someone the Cubs will see this weekend, if not today--he's the only southpaw at Joe Girardi's disposal.

Ayala came on for the 8th inning.

Game two is set for later this afternoon. It will be hard to match Friday's opener in terms of excitement. Burnett will face Ryan Dempster and a pretty well rested bullpen. Marmol got four outs and threw nearly 30 pitches, but he'll surely be available.

Burnett is going to be a big switch from Garcia, featuring a hard four-seam fastball and a power curve. A.J. throws change-ups to left-handed batters and a smattering of sinkers to both left and right.

He'll work away from righties but isn't scared to attack the zone when the platoon effect is supposedly hurting him. Guess what, he has essentially no platoon split advantage. Stack your righties as much as you want, it makes no difference.

I	Split	PA	H	HR	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HBP	BAbip	tOPS+
	vs RHB as RHP	3715	767	103	351	764	2.18	.236	.316	.383	.699	44	.274	99
	vs LHB as RHP	4195	901	80	427	922	2.16	.246	.330	.374	.704	48	.305	101

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/18/2011.

Fun game, despite the bad decision to send Carlos Pena on what turned into a 7-2 LDDP. Burnett was tough on the Cubs, but didn't get out of the sixth inning. First man out of the rightfield bullpen was Cory Wade, who picked-up what could have been a double play grounder (E4) but was the beneficiary of the aforementioned windmilling.

Wade last saw action in 2009 with the Dodgers (if you remember him facing the Cubs you have a better memory than I do, which may or may not be a very low bar). His fastball went from just over 90 (on average) to just under between '08 and '09, and he's been over 89 but still not even at the middling velocity he had before shoulder problems sidelined him in Spring 2010 (more on Wade can be dug up at MSTI.

Noesi took over in the seventh, making quick work out of Tony Campana and Kosuke Fukduome. Starlin Castro battled for 10 pitches before flying out.

Robertson took the eight, and was overwhelming. He struck out Blake DeWitt and Pena on three pitches with a ground out by Aramis Ramirez sandwiched in between. Robertson threw eight of his cutting four-seam fastballs (how's that for a hedging pitch classification?) in his inning of work, along with three curves. The fastballs yielded two called strikes, one foul ball strike, four whiffs and the ARam grounder. Yikes. Seven were up in the zone, with the lone knee height heater being the called strike.