Vance Worley Preview

On the hottest day Chicago has seen in a decade, rookie Vance Worley will take the ball for the Phillies against the Cubs. Worley was drafted after high school and again three years later, both times by Philadelphia, signing the second time around as a third round pick in 2008.

Worley's big league debut was just about one year ago and this will be his 12th Major League start.

He's a big guy, listed at 6'3" 230. He has two base hits this year but no successful sacrifice bunts. As a Sacramento product, he may be able to brush off the heat.

Worley is not a big strike out pitcher, but he limits walks and is just above average in producing ground balls. His sinker does less than I'd expect in terms of killing worms (so far), but his slider and even his curveball are doing their part. His four-seam fastball has a good pop-up rate and he fills the zone with it. He'll throw his slider for a strike more often than not, and is anything but a bat misser with it (or any of his offspeed pitches).

Four-seam fastball: 92 mph
Two-seam fastball: 91
Slider: 85
Change-up: 85
Curveball: 76

Next Challenge: The Resurgent Pirates

I was born in 1971 and went to my first Major League game in 1979. I graduated from college in 1993. By virtue of my age, the quality baseball being played by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2011 is not a shock to my system--I've seen it before.

The Pirates of the 1970s were always first or second in the National League East, with the exception being the lone sub-.500 season of the decade in 1973. And that was the season following the tragic death of Roberto Clemente. Barry Bonds was a Giant by the time I put on my cap-and-gown, but he had two MVPs as a member of the Pirates by that time, too.

While the 80s weren't exactly a heyday for the Bucs, it was more of a space between two eras in my mind. The bookend champions of '71 and '79 (with the We Are Family club occupying a permanent space in my brain) gave way to some lean years under Chuck Tanner, but Jim Leyland and Barry Jr. showed-up and things came back to life. Briefly. 1992 was the last time the Pirates had a winning record.

Since the wonderful 1990-1992 stretch, things have been historically ugly. Only three times have the Pirates finished over .450 and they've been under .400 just as often. Their last two seasons under John Russell were rock bottom, so the turnaround under Clint Hurdle has been hard to miss. Perhaps harder to anticipate.

The Cubs, struggling with the .400 mark themselves, are in town. There's not too much good news in this match-up for the North Siders, but if there is an edge it's actually their good health. The Pirates are without their top two catchers, a few infielders, pitchers and an outfielder.

Pirates DL as of July 8, 2011

7-day
Ronny Cedeno

15-day
Pedro Alvarez
Joe Beimel
Ryan Doumit
Evan Meek
Steven Pearce
Jose Tabata

60-day
Kevin Hart
Ross Ohlendorf
Chris Snyder

Our old buddy Ronny is eligible to come off the concussion DL this weekend, but he won't return until after the break.

The active Pirate catchers (Eric Fryer and Michael McKenry) have a combined big league experience of 28 games, with only six by McKenry coming prior to this season (2010 with Colorado). They're handling a staff that's been the key to their success, along with an improved defense. Both the pitching and defense are top 5 in the NL this year after being dead last in 2010 (ERA+ and DER, per Baseball Reference). The offense has gone from bad to nearly average, but the pitching and defense are leading the way.

Let's check-out the Buc's pitching staff, as currently assembled for the weekend. Pitch data is for 2011 only. First # is average MPH, second #, in parentheses, is times thrown. All pitch classifications are my own, speed is measured at 55ft from home plate.

As a staff, the 2011 Bucs have not struck out a ton of guys, but they've limited the walks giving them a better than average K:BB ratio. They're also good at getting ground balls and have (so far) been well better than average at limiting home runs.

Starters

James McDonald (Friday)

Fastball 93 (874)
Curveball 77 (333)
Sinker 93 (231)
Change-up 82 (138)
Slider 80 (5)
Cutter 89 (4)

And right off the bat we get the exception to the staff. McDonald is a decent-ish strike out pitcher but he struggles with the base on balls. He's also a fly ball pitcher who has picked-up a lot of infield pop flies along the way. So he's got that going for him.

Kevin Correia (Saturday)

Fastball 91 (445)
Sinker 91 (443)
Cutter 88 (434)
Curveball 79 (218)
Change-up 87 (135)

Typical of this staff, Correia pitches to contact. Not many walks or strike outs, he does get plenty of ground balls but it's not like he limits the fly balls. In 2011 his line drive rate has been superb, probably reflecting some combination of poor contact (good pitching) and good luck (line drives that are caught don't always get called a line drive).

Paul Maholm (Sunday)

Sinker 88 (674)
Change-up 82 (277)
Fastball 88 (265)
Curveball 73 (190)
Cutter 84 (152)
Slider 80 (129)

The veteran lefty, Maholm is having a solid season but is getting away with too many free passes. Being a ground ball pitcher helps mitigate that flaw, so he's fitting the crafty lefty mold nicely these days.

Charlie Morton (not scheduled)

Sinker 93 (1012)
Curveball 79 (175)
Fastball 93 (158)
Change-up 86 (128)
Cutter 90 (39)

Similar to Maholm, Morton is on the wrong side of the K:BB ratio (well below average) but is a Ground Ball Machine^TM.

Jeff Karstens (not scheduled)

Sinker 88 (456)
Fastball 90 (338)
Curveball 71 (207)
Change-up 81 (206)
Slider 79 (202)

Karstens is yet another pitch to contact guy. He doesn't walk many batters, but he's prone to the deep fly.

Right-handed relievers

Joel Hanrahan (closer)

Fastball 98 (451)
Slider 87 (79)

Hanrahan may also throw a two-seam sinker, but what ever. Not as extreme as Morton, but Hanrahan is another worm killer. He rarely walks batters and strikes out plenty. He's just nasty, and no one seems to be able to lift his pitches with any authority.

Chris Leroux

Fastball 95 (36)
Slider 84 (15)

Not much to go on, but he's been effective in limited work this year (11 batters faced).

Daniel McCutchen

Sinker 91 (338)
Slider 85 (141)
Change-up 84 (128)
Curveball 80 (18)

Not to be confused with snubbed All Star and emerging super star Andrew McCutchen, Daniel is ... wait for it ... a pitch to contact guy! Doesn't walk many, hasn't been getting as many ground balls as you'd expect so far.

Chris Resop

Fastball 94 (490)
Curveball 80 (134)
Sinker 92 (28)
Change-up 83 (20)

Power pitcher with swing-and-miss stuff. Looks to be trending towards fly ball territory.

Jose Veras

Curveball 79 (226)
Fastball 95 (216)
Sinker 95 (103)
Change-up 84 (80)

Strike outs, walks and fly balls. Kinda scary if things don't go his way. Good stuff, though.

Left-handed relievers

Danny Moskos

Sinker 92 (79)
Fastball 93 (75)
Slider 84 (75)
Change-up 85 (25)

Another pitch to contact arm, this one a southpaw. Does not seem to be a ground ball pitcher.

Tony Watson

Sinker 93 (151)
Change-up 85 (30)
Slider 85 (26)

A left-handed Veras, but worse.

What to Expect from Ramon Ortiz

With Big Z on the DL, Ramon Ortiz will make his first big league appearance since last May. He'll face Ross Detwiler, who is also making his first start of 2011 (a quick note on his stuff is at the bottom of this post).

Ortiz's 30 innings as a Dodger in 2010 were his first in the show since 2007. He spent 2008 in Japan pitching for Orix, returned to the States as a Fresno Giant in 2009, and bounced around AAA for the Mets and Rays after parting ways with the Dodgers in 2010. The Cubs will be his seventh major league team--not including the three clubs that never called him up.

Ortiz, to me, looks like a reliever. Sinker/slider without a ton of velocity. He doesn't walk many guys but has been more adept and getting ground balls outside of the majors. He's just average through his 2007 and 2010 stints, but solidly above average when pitching abroad or in AAA.

Look for a guy who will throw a lot of strikes, fool some guys with the off-speed stuff (on occasion), but generally gets hit harder than desired--more liners than grounders when things are not going his way.

From left to right, this next table shows league relative value for a few ratio stats. From left-to-right: strike outs per plate appearance (batter faced), walks+hit batters per PA, strike outs per walk+hit batter, and ground balls, line drives, fly balls and pop ups per ball in play, ending with home runs per fly ball+line drive.

The numbers are rolled-up by season (2008 does NOT include Japan) and give a fairly decent picture of how Ortiz has performed across winter ball, minor leagues and major leagues.

season	PA	KpP	BHpP	KpBH	GB	LD	FB	PU	HRFL
2007	409	57	78	80	99	118	94	100	125
2008	211	70	110	68	105	112	93	76	64
2009	687	107	48	221	114	92	88	74	51
2010	658	97	64	170	106	102	98	75	71
2011	531	119	55	233	115	87	90	65	89
	2496	96	64	174	109	100	92	77	78

He's done well for Iowa this year.

Putting aside most of the data, the rest is major league and PITCHf/x-based.

Raw numbers:

Type	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
Change-up	118	86.5	0.483	0.175	0.333	2.8	0.390	0.319	0.233	0.500	54%	25%	14%	7.1%	9.1%
Fastball	112	91.7	0.384	0.000	0.465	1.5	0.491	0.228	0.422	0.652	26%	26%	39%	8.7%	13.3%
Sinker	377	92.3	0.406	0.137	0.458	2.2	0.472	0.246	0.388	0.613	50%	18%	26%	6.5%	7.4%
Slider	424	85.4	0.526	0.269	0.350	2.3	0.517	0.337	0.247	0.588	42%	12%	29%	16.5%	20.0%
	1031	88.8	0.462	0.191	0.393	2.2	0.483	0.289	0.316	0.591	44%	17%	27%	11.1%	13.6%

"+" style with 100=average, 10 pts.=10% of league average

Type	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
Change-up	118	104	96	59	114	78	89	95	90	107	110	139	54	108	125
Fastball	112	99	90	0	107	88	88	100	117	122	72	124	115	93	185
Sinker	377	101	95	115	121	116	87	102	105	124	96	95	108	148	110
Slider	424	102	112	84	111	96	106	105	71	119	93	71	100	194	256
	1031	101	104	91	105	105	93	108	89	117	98	89	93	150	192

Scouting style with 50 as avearge, 10 pts.=1 standard deviation

Type	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
Change-up	118	56	47	38	55	56	44	48	47	48	54	39	38	51	47
Fastball	112	49	43	34	54	52	41	50	57	43	42	42	55	49	40
Sinker	377	52	47	52	60	48	41	51	52	43	48	52	52	54	49
Slider	424	53	58	45	55	51	54	52	39	44	48	58	50	64	30
	1031	53	56	46	56	47	39	56	40	40	49	56	47	61	29

In the limited big league sample, Ortiz has more pop-ups but gave up home runs. Strike throwing declined and he was really just average. Hopefully for the Cubs his AAA success will carry over, but I don't get a real warm-and-fuzzy feeling about this.

---

Detwiler is a tall and lanky lefty from St. Louis. He throws four pitches and will be making his 20th big league start.

Jordan Zimmermann, Two Years Later

Happy 4th of July. Here's a look at two young starters facing off in DC today. Casey Coleman is filling in for Ryan Dempster and he's got his work cut out for him today.

The Nats' Jordan Zimmermann is an interesting pitcher. He has power stuff with finesse results. The real story his he's a first class strike thrower, a Wisconsin kid who, at age 25, is now pitching in phase two of career, post-Tommy John surgery.

If you go back just about two full years, you'll find Zimmermann's final pre-surgery start for the Nationals was against the Cubs. That was an eight strike out, one walk loss for the rookie Zimmermann. A few days later Zimmermann felt soreness during a side session. He didn't pitch again until late 2010, which was a fast comeback from the injury.

Zimmermann has had 16 starts in 2011, most of them good ones. He can be counted on--or so it seems--to get you into the seventh inning no more than 100 pitches, give or take a couple.

A couple starts stick out, especially in light of the "finesse" remark. These starts stick out in a good way and may be less oddballs than semi-regular events as Zimmermann develops.

In 14 starts Zimmermann has struck out six or fewer opponents. Of those 14, there was actually just a single 5 and 6, so it's a full dozen with four or fewer strikeouts. The oddballs mentioned above had 10 and 11 strike outs (one in May, one in June).

In short, you could get a strike zone filling Zimmermann that doesn't walk or strike out many batters. That kind of game would feature his defense. Alternatively, on a good day he'll mow down nearly half the guys he faces. All things being equal, a double-digit ground ball game is far more likely than a double-digit strike out game.

What hasn't changed from start-to-start is his control--he just fills the zone whether you can hit it or not. Zimmermann hasn't walked more than two hitters since his first start, so just pencil him in for a single free pass and leave some wiggle room on your scorecard.

Raw numbers

Type	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
Change-up	166	86.6	0.494	0.085	0.354	4.9	0.422	0.354	0.246	0.435	46%	26%	26%	2.2%	0.0%
Curveball	488	78.8	0.441	0.233	0.326	2.2	0.500	0.307	0.408	0.516	56%	20%	21%	3.2%	12.8%
Fastball	2249	93.8	0.467	0.155	0.490	1.6	0.612	0.221	0.321	0.515	41%	21%	30%	8.1%	7.4%
Slider	663	86.5	0.498	0.276	0.303	1.8	0.569	0.353	0.355	0.468	40%	24%	27%	9.4%	4.3%
Total	3566	90.0	0.470	0.185	0.426	1.8	0.580	0.269	0.335	0.499	43%	22%	28%	7.2%	6.8%

"+" style (100=average, 10 pts=10% of league average, higher is more but not always better)

Type	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
Change-up	166	104	98	29	121	136	96	105	95	93	94	144	100	33	0
Curveball	488	102	113	83	103	105	108	111	88	105	112	105	84	55	178
Fastball	2249	102	109	95	113	94	109	97	89	96	114	100	88	86	103
Slider	663	103	106	87	96	75	117	110	101	95	89	141	93	111	55
Total	3566	102	106	89	114	86	112	101	94	99	96	116	97	97	96

Scouting style (50=average, 10 pts=1 SD, higher is better not not always more)

Type	#	MPH	Swing	Whiff	Foul	B:CS	IWZ	Chase	Watch	nkSLG	GB%	LD%	FB%	PU%	HR/FL%
Change-up	166	56	49	30	58	40	48	52	49	52	48	38	50	42	62
Curveball	488	53	58	45	51	49	55	54	44	48	55	48	46	45	41
Fastball	2249	53	56	49	57	51	57	49	46	51	54	50	46	48	50
Slider	663	54	54	46	48	55	61	54	51	52	46	39	48	52	56
Total	3566	56	59	45	65	60	68	51	44	51	48	42	48	49	51